Combined potential hydrologic impact of global warming, climate anomalies, and landuse changes to river basins of western canada and adaptation strategies to mitigate impact

全球变暖、气候异常和土地利用变化对加拿大西部河流流域的综合潜在水文影响以及减轻影响的适应战略

• 批准号: 155440-2011
• 负责人: Gan, ThianYew
• 金额: $ 1.46万
• 依托单位: University of Alberta
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2011-01-01 至 2012-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=476059
• 关键词: Combined; potential; hydrologic; impact; global

Hydrologic extremes have been occurring more frequently and in greater severity worldwide, including Canada, which may be due to the impact of climate change. Furthermore, western Canada (WC) can also be affected by climate anomalies such as El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Pacific North American pattern (PNA). Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves of most Canadian cities for designing municipal infrastructure are likely outdated, for they were mostly developed from single-site analysis of annual maxima rainfall assumed to be Extreme Value Type I distribution calibrated by the method of moments. Also, IDF curves are assumed to be "stationary" even though the effect of global warming could modify the intensity of future extreme rainfall events of various return periods, and so design storms based on existing IDF curves could be under-estimated, which could significantly reduce the safety standard of existing and future municipal infrastructure of Canada. On the other hand, the recent drought of 2001-03 affected Canada nationwide, causing substantial loss of agricultural revenue. How vulnerable are we to future climatic extremes? What prudent, adaptive measures should we implement to prepare for future climatic uncertainties? This proposal has six research objectives: (1) Replace obsolete IDF curves of many Canadian cities; (2) Develop regional IDF curves using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition method; (3) Simulate potential impact of climate change to the IDF curves of selected Canadian cities by a mesoscale atmospheric model driven with projected climate scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in a stand-alone and then a coupled modes; (4) Assess the combined potential impact of climate change and climate anomalies on the future water supply of selected river basins of WC; (5) Assess how could landuse changes due to developments and the potential shift in vegetation caused by a warmer climate would modify hydrology of major river basins; and (6) What adaptation strategies should be implemented to mitigate the potential impacts of climate change, climate anomalies, and landuse changes to our water resources?

极端水文现象在包括加拿大在内的世界各地发生得更频繁、更严重，这可能是由于气候变化的影响。 此外，加拿大西部（WC）也可能受到气候异常的影响，如厄尔尼诺南方涛动（ENSO），太平洋年代际涛动（PDO）和太平洋北美型（PNA）。加拿大大部分城市用于市政基础设施设计的强度-持续时间-频率（IDF）曲线可能已经过时，因为它们大多是通过对年最大降雨量的单站点分析得出的，假设年最大降雨量为极值I型分布，并通过矩量法进行校准。 此外，即使全球变暖的影响可能会改变未来不同重现期的极端降雨事件的强度，也假定IDF曲线是“静止的”，因此基于现有IDF曲线的设计风暴可能会被低估，这可能会大大降低加拿大现有和未来市政基础设施的安全标准。 另一方面，最近2001- 2003年的干旱影响了加拿大全国，造成农业收入的巨大损失。 我们对未来极端气候有多脆弱？ 我们应该采取哪些审慎的适应性措施，为未来的气候不确定性做好准备？ 本研究的目的有六个：（1）取代加拿大许多城市过时的工业发展指数曲线：（2）使用集合经验模态分解方法建立区域工业发展指数曲线;（3）利用政府间气候变化专门委员会（气专委）预测的气候情景驱动的中尺度大气模型，模拟气候变化对选定的加拿大城市的工业发展指数曲线的潜在影响，（4）评估气候变化和气候异常对WC选定流域未来供水的综合潜在影响;（5）评估由于发展而引起的土地利用变化和气候变暖引起的植被潜在变化如何改变主要流域的水文;以及（6）应该实施什么样的适应战略来减轻气候变化、气候异常和土地利用变化对我们水资源的潜在影响？