RAPID: Evaluating Ebola Message Effects over Time: Risk Perceptions, Trust in and Attributions of Responsibility to Institutions, Personal Behavior and Policy Support

虽然埃博拉病毒威胁着西非的一场大灾难，但它在美国对公共卫生的影响可能很小，更多的是由于恐惧，而不是病毒的传播。然而，这对美国人对公共卫生当局的信任的影响，以及对未来流行病的影响，以及其他影响，可能要大得多。跟踪公众对埃博拉风险和管理业绩看法的变化，特别是它们对信任的影响，以及将责任归于不同机构(例如，疾病控制和预防中心、卫生与公众服务部、奥巴马政府、国会、医院)以及来自西非的个人医疗专业人员和旅行者的研究，对于帮助预测公众对未来流行病威胁的反应至关重要。鉴于目前关于埃博拉风险和机构绩效的各种相互矛盾的信息，我们还必须理解这些信息如何影响公众对埃博拉风险和机构绩效的解读。结果有助于改善公共卫生管理和沟通，并有助于整合关于风险认知、对机构的信任、对机构的责任归属和风险沟通的理论。这项研究包括6个月的五项调查，从不同的国家在线小组中随机抽样同一组人，利用纵向调查实验的力量来评估随着时间的推移变化的原因。这项研究的实验部分测试了替代信息在这段延长的时间内的效果，跟踪了它们与信任和责任归属提供的解释性屏幕之间的互动。根据世卫组织的建议，有两条信息与21天的隔离有关：一条信息重复了当局的保证，即隔离时间足够长，受影响的人在出院后不会出现症状；另一条信息警告(根据专家分析)症状将在这段时间之后出现的小但非零的风险。除了检验后一讯息对判断的风险、信任和对21天隔离期限的支持度的影响外，本研究还测试了激发反驳以减少稍后反击对隔离期间的恐慌影响的接种策略。第三个信息，也是接种信息，强调公共卫生系统的能力，尽管不可避免的错误，看看这如何影响信任和责任归因评级。在事件发生前的情况下，这种接种似乎可以减少公众对可怕的[恐怖主义]事件的过度反应，但在埃博拉病毒持续管理的过程中，可能会适得其反。最后一条消息将审查有关具体政策的争论(例如，如何阻止来自埃博拉疫情肆虐的西非国家的人进入美国，或防止在美国传播疾病)。不同的信仰、态度和行为意图衡量这些操纵的影响，并测试潜在的调节因素(例如，世界观、情感、政治意识形态和党派偏见)。最后，这项研究包括对机构之间感知的关系如何影响信任和归因的第一次探索(例如，相信疾控中心可以自由地应对埃博拉病毒，而不受其他机构的限制，可能会增加其对随后业绩失败的已判断责任)。

While Ebola threatens a major catastrophe in West Africa, its public health impacts in the U.S. are likely to be minor, shaped more by fear than transmission of the virus. The effect, however, on Americans' trust in public health authorities, and thus the impacts on future epidemics, among other impacts, may be much larger. Research to track changes in public views on Ebola risk and management performance, especially their impacts on trust and attribution of responsibility to varied institutions (e.g., Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Department of Health and Human Services, Obama administration, Congress, hospitals), and individual medical professionals and travelers from West Africa, is vital to help foretell public responses to future epidemic threats. Given the diverse and conflicting messages about Ebola risks and institutional performance now present, we also must understand how such messages affect public interpretations of Ebola risk and institutional performance. Results can help improve public health management and communication, plus help integrate theory on risk perception, trust in institutions, attribution of responsibility to institutions, and risk communication.This study involves five surveys over 6 months with the same randomly sampled set of people from a diverse national online panel, exploiting the strength of a longitudinal survey experiment to assess causes of change over time. The experimental part of the study tests effects of alternative messages over this extended period, tracking their interactions with interpretive screens provided by trust and attributions of responsibility. Two messages concern the 21-day quarantine based on WHO recommendations: one message that repeats the authorities' reassurance that this quarantine is long enough that the affected person will not become symptomatic after release, and one that warns (based on expert analyses) of small but non-zero risks that symptoms will appear beyond this period. Besides testing the effect of the latter message on judged risk, trust, and support for the 21-day quarantine limit, the study also tests the inoculation strategy of stimulating counter-arguments to reduce panic effects of later counter-attacks on the quarantine period. A third message, also an inoculation message, stressrd capabilities of the public health system despite inevitable mistakes, to see how this affects trust and responsibility-attribution ratings. In pre-event conditions this kind of inoculation seems to reduce public over-reaction to scary [terrorism] events, but in the midst of ongoing management of Ebola may be counter-productive. The final message will review arguments on specific policies (e.g., how to keep people from Ebola-afflicted West African nations out of the U.S., or from spreading disease while here). Varied belief, attitude and behavioral intention measures tracks effects of these manipulations, and tests potential moderators (e.g., worldview, affect, political ideology and partisanship). Finally, the research includes the first probe of how perceived relations among institutions affect trust and attributions (e.g., belief that CDC was free to act against Ebola without constraints from other institutions may increase its judged responsibility for subsequent failures of performance).