RAPID: Media Exposure, Objective Knowledge, Risk Perceptions, and Risk Management Preferences of Americans Regarding the Novel Coronavirus Outbreak

2019年12月，在中国武汉突然观察到人类感染了一种新病毒（正式名称为2019-nCoV病毒和COVID-19疾病，公开称为“冠状病毒”），这是科学家和政策制定者感到惊讶的又一个例子，因为在动物和/或鸟类种群中观察到的病毒，或由蚊子传播的病毒，在人类中具有传染性和破坏性（例如，两种冠状病毒：2002-2003年SARS，2012年MERS; 2014-2016年埃博拉病毒和2015-2017年寨卡病毒的最近重大爆发）。了解不确定性下公众对此类事件的反应动态，对于学习如何避免过度冷漠或过度恐慌是必要的。该项目探讨了美国人对冠状病毒的看法和行为如何在9个月内发生变化-或不发生变化。这将有助于提高我们对人们的信仰，态度和行为如何随着时间的推移在同一个人内部相互作用以及在给定时间内态度存在个体差异的人之间相互作用的理解，从而为科学进步的国家利益服务。这项研究测试了一个新的模型，即个人和集体对似乎是新出现的流行病的解决方案的看法如何受到信仰和态度的影响，该模型建立在包括保护行动决策模型在内的先前工作的基础上。这项研究还可以通过揭示哪些因素与特定反应相关，从而使公共卫生保护更容易或更难实施，从而改善公共卫生和繁荣。因此，它也影响到禁令、旅行禁令和其他保护性政策是否会阻碍或扩大经济增长。该项目还测试了有关错误信念和流感疫苗有效性的信息，这些信息可能会告知公共卫生风险沟通，从而改善公共卫生。该项目的每一波都提出同样的问题：感知的风险;对病毒的情绪反应;报告的个人保护行为和对实际或潜在政府政策的支持;以及对这些行为和政策的信念;对政府的信任;对病毒的主观和客观知识;与病毒的心理距离;有多少人关注有关病毒的新闻;以及他们使用哪些类型的传统和社交媒体源以及他们使用哪些出口（例如，不同的电视频道或不同的社交媒体网站）。随着时间的推移，重复这些问题可以让研究团队检查这些观点和行为是否会随着时间的推移而发生变化，或者随着时间的推移因素之间的关系（例如，风险感知实际上预测了后来的保护行为）。某些其他因素，如文化，阴谋思想，公然和微妙的偏见，是衡量在一个调查波作为控制。该调查通过对受访者报告使用的来源的大众和社交媒体信息进行内容分析来补充，因此研究人员可以测试这种接触对客观知识，风险认知和行为的影响。上一次调查中嵌入的信息操纵实验将允许测试是否可以根据这种冠状病毒的感知威胁增加流感（“流感”）病毒的疫苗接种意向，以及是否可以在短期内减少对冠状病毒威胁和管理的错误信念-该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The sudden observation in Wuhan, China, in December, 2019, of humans infected with a new virus (officially 2019-nCoV virus and COVID-19 disease, publicly known as “the coronavirus”) provides yet another example of scientists and policymakers being surprised as a virus observed in animal and/or bird populations, or transmitted by mosquitoes, became infectious and damaging in humans (e.g., two coronaviruses: SARS 2002-2003, MERS 2012; recent major outbreaks of Ebola virus, 2014-2016, and Zika virus, 2015-2017). Understanding dynamics of public responses to such events under uncertainty is necessary to learn how to avoid either undue apathy or undue panic. This project explores how Americans’ views of and behavior towards the coronavirus change—or do not change—over 9 months. This will serve the national interest in progress in science by improving our understanding of how people’s beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors interact both within the same person over time, and between people with individual differences in attitudes at a given time. The research tests a novel model of how views of personal and collective solutions to what appears to be an emerging pandemic are affected by beliefs and attitudes, which builds upon prior work including the Protection Action Decision Model. The research also may improve public health and prosperity by revealing what factors are associated with particular reactions that may make public health protection easier or harder to implement. It thus affects whether quarantines, travel bans, and other policies meant to be protective hamper or amplify economic growth as well. The project also tests messages about false beliefs and flu vaccine efficacy that may inform public health risk communication and thus improve public health.A longitudinal study design surveys the same Americans five times at 2-month intervals, thus over 9 months total. Each wave of the project asks the same questions: perceived risk; emotional reactions to the virus; reported personal protective behavior and support for actual or potential government policies; and beliefs about those behaviors and policies; trust in government; subjective and objective knowledge about the virus; psychological distance from the virus; how much individuals are following news about the virus; and which types of traditional and social media sources they use and which outlets they use (e.g., different TV channels or different social media sites). Repeating these questions over time allows the research team to examine whether changes occur in these views and behaviors over time, or relations between factors over time (for example, do risk perceptions actually predict later protective behaviors). Certain other factors, such as culture, conspiracy thoughts, and blatant and subtle prejudice—are measured during one survey wave as a control. The survey is complemented by content analysis of mass and social media information from sources that respondents report using, so the researchers can test effects of that exposure on objective knowledge, risk perceptions, and behaviors. An information manipulation experiment embedded in the last survey will allow testing of whether vaccination intentions for the influenza (“flu”) virus can be increased in light of perceived threat from this coronavirus, and whether false beliefs about the coronavirus threat and management can be diminished in the short-term.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.