RAPID: Media Exposure, Objective Knowledge, Risk Perceptions, and Risk Management Preferences of Americans Regarding the Novel Coronavirus Outbreak

2019年12月，在武汉，中国突然发现人类感染了一种新病毒(正式名称为NCoV病毒和新冠肺炎病，公开名称为冠状病毒)，这提供了又一个例子，表明科学家和政策制定者对在动物和/或鸟类种群中观察到的或由蚊子传播的病毒对人类具有传染性和破坏性感到惊讶(例如，两种冠状病毒：SARS 2002-2003，MERS 2012；最近爆发的埃博拉病毒，2014-2016，以及寨卡病毒，2015-2017)。了解公众在不确定情况下对此类事件的反应动态，对于学习如何避免过度的冷漠或过度的恐慌是必要的。这个项目探索了9个月来美国人对冠状病毒的看法和行为是如何改变的--或者没有改变。这将通过提高我们对人们的信仰、态度和行为如何随着时间的推移在同一个人内部以及在给定时间具有不同态度的人之间的相互作用的理解，为科学进步中的国家利益服务。这项研究测试了一种新的模型，即个人和集体对似乎正在出现的大流行的解决方案的观点如何受到信念和态度的影响，这一模型建立在包括保护行动决策模型在内的先前工作的基础上。这项研究还可能通过揭示哪些因素与可能使公共卫生保护更容易或更难实施的特定反应有关，来改善公共健康和繁荣。因此，它影响到隔离、旅行禁令和其他旨在保护经济增长的政策是否也会阻碍或放大经济增长。该项目还测试了有关错误信念和流感疫苗效力的信息，这些信息可能会为公共健康风险沟通提供信息，从而改善公共健康。一项纵向研究设计每隔2个月对同一美国人进行5次调查，总共超过9个月。该项目的每一波都提出了相同的问题：感知到的风险；对病毒的情绪反应；报告的个人保护行为和对现有或潜在政府政策的支持；对这些行为和政策的信念；对政府的信任；对病毒的主观和客观知识；与病毒的心理距离；个人关注有关病毒的新闻的程度；以及他们使用哪些类型的传统和社交媒体来源以及使用哪些渠道(例如，不同的电视频道或不同的社交媒体网站)。随着时间的推移重复这些问题，研究团队可以检查这些观点和行为是否会随着时间的推移而发生变化，或者因素之间的关系是否会随着时间的推移而发生变化(例如，风险感知是否真的可以预测后来的保护行为)。某些其他因素，如文化、阴谋论和明目张胆的和微妙的偏见，在一次调查中作为对照进行衡量。调查的补充是对受访者报告使用的来源的海量和社交媒体信息的内容分析，因此研究人员可以测试这种暴露对客观知识、风险认知和行为的影响。上一次调查中嵌入的信息操纵实验将允许测试是否可以根据对这种冠状病毒的感知威胁来增加对这种流感病毒的疫苗接种意向，以及是否可以在短期内减少对冠状病毒威胁和管理的错误信念。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The sudden observation in Wuhan, China, in December, 2019, of humans infected with a new virus (officially 2019-nCoV virus and COVID-19 disease, publicly known as “the coronavirus”) provides yet another example of scientists and policymakers being surprised as a virus observed in animal and/or bird populations, or transmitted by mosquitoes, became infectious and damaging in humans (e.g., two coronaviruses: SARS 2002-2003, MERS 2012; recent major outbreaks of Ebola virus, 2014-2016, and Zika virus, 2015-2017). Understanding dynamics of public responses to such events under uncertainty is necessary to learn how to avoid either undue apathy or undue panic. This project explores how Americans’ views of and behavior towards the coronavirus change—or do not change—over 9 months. This will serve the national interest in progress in science by improving our understanding of how people’s beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors interact both within the same person over time, and between people with individual differences in attitudes at a given time. The research tests a novel model of how views of personal and collective solutions to what appears to be an emerging pandemic are affected by beliefs and attitudes, which builds upon prior work including the Protection Action Decision Model. The research also may improve public health and prosperity by revealing what factors are associated with particular reactions that may make public health protection easier or harder to implement. It thus affects whether quarantines, travel bans, and other policies meant to be protective hamper or amplify economic growth as well. The project also tests messages about false beliefs and flu vaccine efficacy that may inform public health risk communication and thus improve public health.A longitudinal study design surveys the same Americans five times at 2-month intervals, thus over 9 months total. Each wave of the project asks the same questions: perceived risk; emotional reactions to the virus; reported personal protective behavior and support for actual or potential government policies; and beliefs about those behaviors and policies; trust in government; subjective and objective knowledge about the virus; psychological distance from the virus; how much individuals are following news about the virus; and which types of traditional and social media sources they use and which outlets they use (e.g., different TV channels or different social media sites). Repeating these questions over time allows the research team to examine whether changes occur in these views and behaviors over time, or relations between factors over time (for example, do risk perceptions actually predict later protective behaviors). Certain other factors, such as culture, conspiracy thoughts, and blatant and subtle prejudice—are measured during one survey wave as a control. The survey is complemented by content analysis of mass and social media information from sources that respondents report using, so the researchers can test effects of that exposure on objective knowledge, risk perceptions, and behaviors. An information manipulation experiment embedded in the last survey will allow testing of whether vaccination intentions for the influenza (“flu”) virus can be increased in light of perceived threat from this coronavirus, and whether false beliefs about the coronavirus threat and management can be diminished in the short-term.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.