RAPID: Media Exposure, Objective Knowledge, Risk Perceptions, and Risk Management Preferences of Americans Regarding the Novel Coronavirus Outbreak

2019年12月，中国武汉突然发现人类感染了一种新病毒（正式名称为2019- ncov病毒和COVID-19疾病，公开称为“冠状病毒”），这是科学家和政策制定者感到惊讶的又一个例子，因为在动物和/或鸟类种群中观察到的病毒，或由蚊子传播的病毒，在人类中具有传染性和破坏性(例如两种冠状病毒：2002-2003年SARS、2012年中东呼吸综合征；最近的埃博拉病毒（2014-2016年）和寨卡病毒（2015-2017年）大爆发。了解不确定情况下公众对此类事件反应的动态，对于学习如何避免过度冷漠或过度恐慌是必要的。这个项目探讨了美国人对冠状病毒的看法和行为在9个月内是如何变化的。这将有助于我们更好地理解人们的信仰、态度和行为是如何随着时间的推移在同一个人内部以及在特定时间内态度存在个体差异的人之间相互作用的，从而有利于科学进步的国家利益。这项研究测试了一个新模型，即个人和集体解决似乎正在出现的大流行病的观点如何受到信仰和态度的影响，该模型建立在包括保护行动决策模型在内的先前工作的基础上。这项研究还可能通过揭示哪些因素与可能使公共卫生保护更容易或更难实施的特定反应有关，从而改善公共卫生和繁荣。因此，它影响到隔离、旅行禁令和其他保护性政策是阻碍还是促进经济增长。该项目还测试了有关错误信念和流感疫苗功效的信息，这些信息可能为公众健康风险沟通提供信息，从而改善公众健康。一项纵向研究每隔两个月对同一美国人进行五次调查，总共超过9个月。项目的每一波都问同样的问题：感知风险；对病毒的情绪反应；报告个人保护行为和对实际或潜在政府政策的支持；以及对这些行为和政策的信念；对政府的信任；对病毒有主观和客观的认识；与病毒保持心理距离；有多少人关注有关该病毒的新闻；以及他们使用的传统媒体和社交媒体来源的类型，以及他们使用的渠道（例如，不同的电视频道或不同的社交媒体网站）。随着时间的推移，重复这些问题可以让研究小组检查这些观点和行为是否会随着时间的推移而发生变化，或者因素之间的关系随着时间的推移而发生变化（例如，风险感知是否实际上预测了后来的保护行为）。某些其他因素，如文化、阴谋思想和明显或微妙的偏见，作为对照，在一次调查中被测量。该调查还补充了对大众和社交媒体信息的内容分析，这些信息来自受访者报告使用的来源，因此研究人员可以测试这种暴露对客观知识、风险感知和行为的影响。最后一项调查中包含的信息操纵实验将允许测试流感（“流感”）病毒的疫苗接种意图是否可以根据这种冠状病毒的感知威胁而增加，以及关于冠状病毒威胁和管理的错误信念是否可以在短期内减少。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The sudden observation in Wuhan, China, in December, 2019, of humans infected with a new virus (officially 2019-nCoV virus and COVID-19 disease, publicly known as “the coronavirus”) provides yet another example of scientists and policymakers being surprised as a virus observed in animal and/or bird populations, or transmitted by mosquitoes, became infectious and damaging in humans (e.g., two coronaviruses: SARS 2002-2003, MERS 2012; recent major outbreaks of Ebola virus, 2014-2016, and Zika virus, 2015-2017). Understanding dynamics of public responses to such events under uncertainty is necessary to learn how to avoid either undue apathy or undue panic. This project explores how Americans’ views of and behavior towards the coronavirus change—or do not change—over 9 months. This will serve the national interest in progress in science by improving our understanding of how people’s beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors interact both within the same person over time, and between people with individual differences in attitudes at a given time. The research tests a novel model of how views of personal and collective solutions to what appears to be an emerging pandemic are affected by beliefs and attitudes, which builds upon prior work including the Protection Action Decision Model. The research also may improve public health and prosperity by revealing what factors are associated with particular reactions that may make public health protection easier or harder to implement. It thus affects whether quarantines, travel bans, and other policies meant to be protective hamper or amplify economic growth as well. The project also tests messages about false beliefs and flu vaccine efficacy that may inform public health risk communication and thus improve public health.A longitudinal study design surveys the same Americans five times at 2-month intervals, thus over 9 months total. Each wave of the project asks the same questions: perceived risk; emotional reactions to the virus; reported personal protective behavior and support for actual or potential government policies; and beliefs about those behaviors and policies; trust in government; subjective and objective knowledge about the virus; psychological distance from the virus; how much individuals are following news about the virus; and which types of traditional and social media sources they use and which outlets they use (e.g., different TV channels or different social media sites). Repeating these questions over time allows the research team to examine whether changes occur in these views and behaviors over time, or relations between factors over time (for example, do risk perceptions actually predict later protective behaviors). Certain other factors, such as culture, conspiracy thoughts, and blatant and subtle prejudice—are measured during one survey wave as a control. The survey is complemented by content analysis of mass and social media information from sources that respondents report using, so the researchers can test effects of that exposure on objective knowledge, risk perceptions, and behaviors. An information manipulation experiment embedded in the last survey will allow testing of whether vaccination intentions for the influenza (“flu”) virus can be increased in light of perceived threat from this coronavirus, and whether false beliefs about the coronavirus threat and management can be diminished in the short-term.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.