Toward a Further Understanding and Improved Forecasting of Coastal Quasi-linear Convective Systems

进一步了解和改进沿海准线性对流系统的预报

• 批准号: 1514115
• 负责人: Kelly Lombardo
• 金额: $ 29.2万
• 依托单位: University of Connecticut
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2015-07-01 至 2019-11-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1514115&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Toward; Further; Understanding; Improved; Forecasting

There has been a considerable amount of study about thunderstorm complexes and how they intensify and sustain themselves over the continental United States. Less research has been conducted on how those complexes interact with the cooler, more stable air of the marine atmospheric boundary layer along coastal regions. This study will consist of numerical model simulations of thunderstorms as they move offshore. The importance of this research lies in the fact that these types of thunderstorm complexes contribute to a significant portion of severe weather reports in heavily populated coastal areas of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern United States. The main outcome of this project will be an understanding of the factors that lead to the decay of the thunderstorms near the shoreline, survival of the storms until just offshore, or whether the systems can sustain themselves well out into the ocean. The lead researcher will interact with the National Weather Service and other government and private entities to ensure that the knowledge is transferred to decision-makers. This project will also contribute to the future scientific workforce through the training of a graduate student.The researcher plans to improve understanding and prediction of evolving quasi-linear convective systems (QLCS) as they move offshore from inland regions and interact with the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) over coastal waters. The project will systematically study the storm scale physical processes through idealized numerical modeling using a cloud resolving model. The magnitude and depth of the vertical wind shear, the strength of the diabatically generated cold pool associated with the convective storm, and the structure of the sea breeze-MABL boundary will be altered in the suite of idealized numerical sensitivity tests. Some of the scientific questions that motivate the study include: Is the low- or mid-level shear more influential on the evolution of the QLCS? What is the source region of the air being ingested into the QLCS? How do the QLCS characteristics change as the system interacts with the MABL boundary and as it moves offshore?

有相当多的研究关于雷暴复合体以及它们如何在美国大陆加强和维持自己。关于这些复合体如何与沿海地区较冷、较稳定的海洋大气边界层空气相互作用的研究较少。这项研究将包括雷暴向近海移动时的数值模型模拟。这项研究的重要性在于，在大西洋中部和美国东北部人口稠密的沿海地区，这些类型的雷暴复合体在恶劣天气报告中占很大一部分。这个项目的主要成果将是了解导致海岸线附近雷暴衰减的因素，风暴的生存直到离岸，或者系统是否可以很好地维持自己进入海洋。首席研究员将与国家气象局以及其他政府和私人实体进行互动，以确保将知识传递给决策者。该项目还将通过培养研究生为未来的科学劳动力做出贡献。研究人员计划提高对准线性对流系统（QLCS）的理解和预测，因为它们从内陆地区向近海移动，并与沿海水域的海洋大气边界层（MABL）相互作用。该项目将通过使用云分辨模式的理想化数值模拟系统地研究风暴尺度的物理过程。在一套理想的数值敏感性试验中，垂直风切变的大小和深度、与对流风暴相关的绝热生成冷池的强度以及海风- mabl边界的结构将被改变。激发这项研究的一些科学问题包括：低水平还是中等水平的剪切对QLCS的演变影响更大？空气的源头在哪里？当系统与MABL边界相互作用并移动到离岸时，QLCS特性如何变化？