CNH-S: The New 100th Meridian: Urban Water Resiliency in a Climatic and Demographic Hot Spot

约翰·韦斯利·鲍威尔，著名的美国探险家和第一位美国地质调查局局长，推广了100子午线作为湿润的东部和半干旱的西部之间的气候边界-美国西部的地理起源。各种气候模型都很一致地表明，德州中部未来将更暖和，也可能更干燥。因此，湿润的东部和半干旱的西部之间的过渡边界从第100次子午线向东移动。圣安东尼奥、奥斯汀、达拉斯、沃斯堡和格兰德山谷等主要城市位于子午线100号以东，是美国人口增长最快的地区之一。预计到2065年，该州的人口将增加一倍。德克萨斯州中部走廊靠近气候边界的位置使其对温度和降水的变化特别敏感。气候变化与人口和经济的快速增长相结合，人为因素将成为未来干旱时期水资源短缺的重要驱动因素。正是由于气候变化和人口/经济增长的双重驱动因素，德克萨斯州中部走廊可以被视为一个哨兵社区；也就是说，该地区目前正在发生的变化可以预测美国其他地区的趋势。因此，将对该地区的气候、人口、城市化和水资源进行研究，因为它是解决水资源短缺问题的新技术和新战略的宝贵试验场。研究内容包括：1)确定理解德克萨斯州水弹性的重大挑战；2) 21世纪高空间分辨率气候模式预估的比较，提高我们对德克萨斯州干旱驱动机制的认识；3) 21世纪德克萨斯州人口变化与区域发展情景的发展；4)将上述因素整合到该州未来水弹性的区域评估中。新的研究活动将汇集来自互补学科的研究人员，发起合作并综合研究活动。这项研究的首要目标是建立有关影响德克萨斯州快速变化的人类和自然系统未来水弹性的因素的知识，这将适用于预计人口增长和水可用性变化的其他地区。

John Wesley Powell, famed American explorer and first U.S. Geological Survey director, popularized the 100th Meridian as the climatic boundary between the humid east and the semi-arid west - the geographic origin of the western United States. There is good agreement among climate models indicating a warmer and probable drier future for central Texas. As such, the transitional boundary between the humid east and semiarid west is shifting eastward from the 100th Meridian. The major cities of San Antonio, Austin, Dallas, Fort Worth, and the Rio Grande Valley are located just east of the 100th Meridian, and rank among the fastest growing regions in the U.S. The state is projected to double in population by the year 2065. The central Texas corridor's position near the climatic boundary makes it particularly sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation. Couple climate change with rapid population and economic growth, and man-made forces become an important driver of future water scarcity in times of drought. It is because of these twin drivers of climate change and population/economic growth that the central Texas corridor can be viewed as a sentinel community; that is, the changes that are currently underway in the region may predict trends for other parts of the U.S. Thus, research will be conducted on climate, population, urbanization and water resources in this region, as it is a valuable proving ground for new techniques and strategies to address water scarcity.The research comprises: 1) Identifying the Grand Challenges for understanding Texas water resiliency; 2) comparison of 21st century climate model projections at high spatial resolution and improving our understanding of the mechanisms that drive drought in Texas; 3) development of scenarios of demographic changes and regional development for the 21st century in Texas; and 4) integration of the above into a regional evaluation of future water resiliency for the state. New research activities will bring together researchers from complementary disciplines to initiate collaborations and synthesize research activities. The overarching goal of this research is to build knowledge regarding the factors that will impact future water resiliency in the rapidly changing human and natural systems of Texas, which will have applicability to other regions for which significant population growth and changing water availability are projected.