Effects of temperature on vector-borne disease transmission: integrating theory with empirical data

了解温度如何影响致病生物体和携带它们的蚊子，对于预测和应对未来疾病风险的变化至关重要。世界上许多最具破坏性和被忽视的传染病需要蚊子和其他昆虫在人与人之间传播。疟疾每年导致超过65万人死亡，其中大部分是撒哈拉以南非洲的儿童，西尼罗河病毒、登革热病毒和基孔肯雅病毒等病原体在北美和热带地区都在上升。蚊子及其携带的病原体对环境很敏感，因此气候的变化，特别是温度的变化，会影响热带和温带地区的疾病风险。该奖项支持研究，以衡量温度对利用蚊子和苍蝇传播的13种不同病原体的影响，以及美洲两种常见蚊子适应不同温度条件的能力。此外，这项工作将通过科学和数学培训支持STEM教育，重点是代表性不足的群体，并将提供公开可用的数据，供其他研究人员和公共卫生专业人员使用。该项目的目标是开发一个预测媒介传播温度敏感性的通用框架。这项工作解决了三个主要问题：(1)病媒传播对温度有何反应？(2)相对于其他因素，温度对田间传播的影响有多大？(3)这种传播能否适应当地的温度机制？这项研究将开发温度敏感的传播模型，并将其与13种媒介传播疾病的现有文献数据相匹配：间日疟、锥虫病、登革热、基孔肯雅热、黄热病、西尼罗河、东部马脑炎、西部马脑炎、圣路易斯脑炎、裂谷热、奥克尔博(辛德比斯)病、罗斯河热和蓝舌病。实验室实验将测量埃及伊蚊和埃及伊蚊的局部热适应。白纹伊蚊从不同的地理和温度范围传播登革热和其他病毒。同时，这项研究将以生理生态学的理论为基础，开发和测试媒介和寄生虫如何对温度做出反应的理论。将使用在厄瓜多尔收集的关于传播风险、登革热病例、气候和其他社会和经济因素的新的地方规模数据来验证模型预测。作为对这些地方尺度数据的补充，这项研究将从现有文献以及气候和社会经济信息中开发一个关于现场传播的全球数据库。这些现场数据将一起测试传播模型的准确性，并评估温度在从邻国到大陆的尺度上对传播的相对重要性。

Understanding how temperature affects disease-causing organisms and the mosquitoes that carry them is critical for predicting and responding to future changes in disease risk. Many of the world's most devastating and neglected infectious diseases require mosquitoes and other insects for transmission between people. Malaria kills over 650,000 people each year, mostly children in sub-Saharan Africa, and pathogens like West Nile virus, dengue virus, and chikungunya virus are on the rise in both North America and the tropics. Mosquitoes and the pathogens they carry are sensitive to the environment, so changes in climate, particularly temperature, affect disease risk both in the tropics and in temperate areas. This award supports research to measure the effect of temperature on 13 different pathogens that use mosquitoes and flies for transmission, and the capacity for two common mosquitoes in the Americas to adapt to different temperature conditions. In addition, this work will support STEM education through training in science and math with a focus on under-represented groups, and will contribute publicly available data that can be used by other researchers and public health professionals.The goal of this project is to develop a general framework for predicting the temperature sensitivity of vector transmission. This work addresses three main questions: (1) How does vector-borne pathogen transmission respond to temperature? (2) How important is the influence of temperature, relative to other factors, on transmission in the field? (3) Can such transmission adapt to local temperature regimes? The research will develop temperature-sensitive transmission models and fit them with data from the existing literature for 13 vector-borne diseases: vivax malaria, trypanosomiasis, dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, West Nile, Eastern equine encephalitis, Western equine encephalitis, St. Louis encephalitis, Rift Valley fever, Ockelbo (Sindbis) disease, Ross River fever, and bluetongue. Laboratory experiments will measure local thermal adaptation of Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes, which transmit dengue and other viruses, from across their geographic and temperature ranges. In tandem, the research will develop and test theory on how vectors and parasites respond to temperature based on theory from physiological ecology. New local-scale data collected in Ecuador on transmission risk, dengue cases, climate, and other social and economic factors will be used to validate the model predictions. Complementing these local-scale data, the research will develop a global database on field transmission from the existing literature, along with climatic and socioeconomic information. Together, these field data will test the accuracy of the transmission models and assess the relative importance of temperature for transmission at scales from neighborhood to continent.