SES RUI: Assessing the Effect of Systems Thinking on Decision Making

人类目前面临的最大挑战--气候变化、贫困、流行病、金融崩溃--是人类在极其复杂的系统中行事，而没有能力充分理解这些系统如何工作的结果。许多人认为，在这种情况下，如果人们能够进行系统思考，他们会做出更好的决定。系统思维是一种将现实概念化并做出决策的方式，强调加强对关系和相互依存的理解。这项研究确定了简单和可扩展的方法来增加系统思维和增强日常决策，而不需要广泛的培训或认知资源。特别是，这项研究考察了鼓励人们思考更广泛系统的隐喻和概念模型是否可以改变人们思考问题的方式，并提高他们寻找有效解决方案的能力。例如，帮助人们定位自己并可视化他们与生态、社会或经济系统的关系的图表和地图是否有助于他们做出有利于周围社区的选择？一些比喻(把国家公园比作公园系统的“脊梁”，而不是“珍珠”)能帮助人们看到公园和更大的生态系统之间的关系吗？从实践的角度来看，这项研究最重要的方面是相对简单的隐喻和概念模型有可能每天改善大量人群的决策。在八项研究中，本研究项目识别了促进系统思维的隐喻和概念模型，并检验了系统思维改善决策的论点。两个实验识别系统隐喻并测试它们的心理效应，以及它们对风险评估和决策的影响。两个实验测试了对有问题的系统进行估值是否是系统思维产生更好决策的先决条件。四项实地研究将测试系统性隐喻对节约行为(用电)和政治行动(参与由非营利性传播公司资源媒体策划的基于社交媒体的活动)的影响。这些研究很重要，因为现有的关于系统思维的工作都不是基于心理过程，也没有充分评估系统思维对决策和行为的影响。这里提出的研究计划将使用心理学理论、经验测量和实验技术来解决这些巨大的知识差距。

The greatest challenges humans currently face - climate change, poverty, epidemics, financial meltdowns - are the result of humans acting within enormously complex systems without the ability to fully understanding how these systems work. Many have argued that people will make better decisions under these circumstances if they can engage in systems thinking. Systems thinking is a way of conceptualizing reality and making decisions that emphasizes enhanced understanding of relationships and interdependencies. This research identifies simple and scalable methods of increasing systems thinking and enhancing everyday decision making that do not require extensive training or cognitive resources. In particular, this research examines whether metaphors and conceptual models that encourage people to think about the broader system can shift the way people think about a problem, and improve their ability to identify effective solutions. For example, do diagrams and maps that help people to situate themselves and visualize their relationships to ecological, social or economic systems help them make choices that benefit the community around them? Do some metaphors (describing a national park as the "backbone" of the park system, as opposed to a "pearl") help people see the relationships between that park and the larger ecological system? The most important facet of this research from a practical point of view is the possibility that relatively simple metaphors and conceptual models have the potential to improve decision making among large groups of people every day.In eight studies, this research project identifies metaphors and conceptual models that promote systems thinking, and test the contention that systems thinking improves decision making. Two experiments identify systemic metaphors and test their psychological effects, as well as their effects on risk assessment and decision making. Two experiments test whether valuing the system in question is a prerequisite for systems thinking to result in better decision making. Four field studies will test the impact of systemic metaphors on conservation behavior (electricity use) and political action (involvement in social media-based campaigns orchestrated by the non-profit communications firm Resource Media). These studies are important because none of the existing work on systems thinking is grounded in psychological processes, nor has it fully evaluated the effects of systems thinking on decision making and behavior. The research program proposed here will use psychological theory, empirical measurement, and experimental techniques to address these large gaps in knowledge.