Collaborative Research: Climate Change, Mesoscale Oceanography, and the Dynamics of Eastern Pacific Coral Reefs

世界各地的珊瑚礁都受到威胁，气候变化是它们减少的主要原因。了解珊瑚礁的当地条件如何夸大或掩盖气候变化的影响，使预测哪些珊瑚礁最有可能存活更长时间成为可能，因此，哪些珊瑚礁值得最大的努力和保护资金。巴拿马太平洋沿岸的珊瑚礁容易受到全球气候变化的影响，但也受到小规模洋流和其他当地条件的强烈影响。这项研究的目的是了解这些地方差异如何影响珊瑚的生长和珊瑚建造珊瑚礁的能力。下个世纪，气候变化似乎将使巴拿马太平洋沿岸的珊瑚礁停止生长。考虑到与此同时海平面正在加速上升，如果珊瑚礁关闭，它们将无法保护人口稠密的海岸线免受风暴的破坏和侵蚀。除了提供科学见解外，该项目还将提供本科生和研究生培训，为代表性不足的群体提供研究培训，促进妇女从事科学事业，并为管理和政策提供重要信息。研究结果将被纳入佛罗里达州一级学校K至12年级的创新课程材料中，与下一代（共同核心）标准以及气候和海洋素养标准保持一致。为K至12年级学生举办年度电影节，通过摄影探索海洋科学主题。全球气候变化现在是珊瑚礁退化的主要原因，但人们对中尺度海洋学在多大程度上叠加了气候强迫知之甚少。此前对巴拿马太平洋的研究表明，珊瑚礁生态系统在4100年至1600年前崩溃。2500年的造礁中断发生在整个太平洋地区，其主要原因是厄尔尼诺-南方涛动的变异性增加。本研究将确定热带东部太平洋中尺度海洋学的当代变率对当地珊瑚种群状况变率的影响。来自现存种群的见解将与珊瑚礁框架的古生态和地球化学研究相结合，以推断过去对珊瑚生长和珊瑚礁增生有害或有益的条件。巴拿马太平洋地区将检验三个主要假设：中尺度海洋学表现为珊瑚礁状况、珊瑚生长和珊瑚生理状况的梯度。对上升流和温跃层浅滩的生理保护对珊瑚的生长速度和生理有积极的影响。中尺度海洋环境对礁珊瑚生长和状况的影响至少可以追溯到全新世中晚期。对上升流和温跃层浅滩的地理保护对过去的垂直礁积具有积极作用，并缩短了晚全新世间歇期。测试这些假设的具体研究方法将包括收集高分辨率的海洋学时间序列，以沿物理条件梯度表征当代环境；收集有关活珊瑚种群状况的生态和地球化学数据；从珊瑚礁框架中提取岩心，并对珊瑚组合进行分类、地形学和地球化学分析，以评估生物和古环境变化的模式。珊瑚礁发展的物理驱动因素具有很强的时空变异性，这使得ETP成为一个很好的模式系统，用于研究珊瑚礁在一系列物理制度下对气候变化的响应。这项研究将提供一个独特的机会，在多个空间和时间尺度上梳理出对珊瑚礁发育的控制。晚全新世间歇期背后的气候学与下个世纪的可能情景相似，这意味着气候变化可能会推动ETP（和其他地方）的珊瑚礁生态系统走向另一次崩溃。了解间隙是如何沿着海洋梯度展开的，将增加我们预测未来珊瑚礁对快速变化的气候的反应的能力。

Coral reefs are under threat around the world, and climate change is the main reason they are declining. Knowing how local conditions on a reef exaggerate or mask the impacts of climate change make it possible to predict which reefs are most likely to survive longer and, therefore, which reefs deserve the greatest effort and funding for conservation. Reefs off the Pacific coast of Panama are vulnerable to the impacts of global climate change but are also strongly influenced by small-scale currents and other local conditions. The goal of this study is to see how those local differences affect coral growth and the ability of the corals to build reefs. Climate change appears poised to shut down reef growth off Pacific Panama within the next century. Considering that sea-level rise is accelerating at the same time, if coral reefs shut down they will not be able to protect populated shorelines from storm damage and erosion. In addition to its scientific insights, this project will provide undergraduate and graduate training, provide research training for underrepresented groups, advance women in scientific careers, and contribute important information for management and policy. The results will be incorporated into innovative curricular materials for K through 12 classes in Title-I schools in Florida aligned with Next Generation (Common Core) standards, and standards for Climate and Ocean Literacy. An annual film festival will be organized for K through 12 students to explore themes in marine science through videography.Global climate change is now the leading cause of coral-reef degradation, but the extent to which mesoscale oceanography overprints climatic forcing is poorly understood. Previous studies in Pacific Panama showed that reef ecosystems collapsed from 4100 to 1600 years ago. The 2500-yr hiatus in reef-building occurred at locations throughout the Pacific, and the primary cause was increased variability of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. This study will determine the influence of contemporary variability in mesoscale oceanography in the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP) on variability in the condition of local coral populations. Insights from the living populations will be combined with paleoecological and geochemical studies of reef frameworks to infer past conditions that were inimical or beneficial to coral growth and reef accretion. Three primary hypotheses will be tested in Pacific Panama:H1. Mesoscale oceanography is manifested in gradients of reef condition, coral growth, and coral physiological condition. Physiographic protection from upwelling currents and thermocline shoaling confers positive effects on coral growth rate and physiology.H2. The impacts of mesoscale oceanographic regimes on the growth and condition of reef-corals were felt at least as far back as the mid- to late Holocene.H3. Physiographic protection from upwelling currents and thermocline shoaling conferred positive effects on vertical reef accretion in the past and shortened the late-Holocene hiatus.Specific research approaches to test these hypotheses will include collecting high-resolution, oceanographic time series to characterize contemporary environments along gradients of physical conditions; collecting ecological and geochemical data on the condition of living coral populations; and extracting cores from the reef frameworks and analyzing the coral assemblages taxonomically, taphonomically, and geochemically to assess patterns of biotic and paleoenvironmental variability. Strong spatial and temporal variability in the physical drivers of reef development make the ETP an excellent model system in which to examine the response of coral reefs to climate change over a range of physical regimes. This research will provide a unique opportunity to tease apart the controls on reef development across multiple spatial and temporal scales. The climatology underlying the late-Holocene hiatus was similar to probable scenarios for the next century, implying that climate change could be driving reef ecosystems of the ETP (and elsewhere) toward another collapse. Understanding how the hiatus unfolded along oceanographic gradients will increase our power to predict the future responses of reefs to a rapidly changing climate.