Collaborative Research: Climate Change, Mesoscale Oceanography, and the Dynamics of Eastern Pacific Coral Reefs

世界各地的珊瑚礁都受到威胁，气候变化是珊瑚礁数量减少的主要原因。了解珊瑚礁的当地条件如何夸大或掩盖气候变化的影响，可以预测哪些珊瑚礁最有可能存活更长时间，因此，哪些珊瑚礁值得最大的努力和资金进行保护。巴拿马太平洋沿岸的珊瑚礁容易受到全球气候变化的影响，但也受到小规模洋流和其他当地条件的强烈影响。这项研究的目标是了解这些地区的差异如何影响珊瑚的生长和珊瑚建造珊瑚礁的能力。气候变化似乎准备在下个世纪内关闭巴拿马太平洋沿岸的珊瑚礁生长。考虑到海平面同时正在加速上升，如果珊瑚礁关闭，它们将无法保护人口稠密的海岸线免受风暴破坏和侵蚀。除了其科学见解外，该项目还将提供本科生和研究生培训，为代表性不足的群体提供研究培训，促进妇女在科学职业生涯中的进步，并为管理和政策提供重要信息。结果将被纳入佛罗里达州第一标题学校的K到12个班级的创新课程材料，与下一代(共同核心)标准以及气候和海洋扫盲标准保持一致。将为K到12岁的学生组织一年一度的电影节，通过视频探索海洋科学的主题。全球气候变化现在是珊瑚礁退化的主要原因，但人们对中尺度海洋影响气候强迫的程度知之甚少。此前对巴拿马太平洋地区的研究表明，珊瑚礁生态系统在4100年至1600年前崩溃。太平洋各地出现了长达2500年的造礁中断，主要原因是厄尔尼诺-南方涛动的变异性增加。这项研究将确定热带东太平洋(ETP)中尺度海洋学的当代变异性对当地珊瑚种群条件下变异性的影响。来自活着种群的见解将与对珊瑚礁框架的古生态和地球化学研究相结合，以推断过去对珊瑚生长和珊瑚礁生长不利或有利的条件。三个主要假设将在太平洋巴拿马接受检验：H1。中尺度海洋学表现为珊瑚礁条件、珊瑚生长和珊瑚生理条件的梯度。保护地形不受上升流和温跃层浅滩的影响对珊瑚的生长速度和生理有积极的影响。至少早在全新世中晚期，就能感受到中尺度海洋状况对珊瑚礁生长和状况的影响。不受上升流和温跃层浅滩影响的地形保护在过去对垂直珊瑚礁的沉积产生了积极的影响，并缩短了全新世晚期。检验这些假说的具体研究方法将包括收集高分辨率的海洋学时间序列，以沿着物理条件的梯度描述当代环境；收集关于活珊瑚种群状况的生态和地球化学数据；从珊瑚礁骨架中提取岩芯，并从分类学、地层学和地球化学学的角度分析珊瑚组合，以评估生物和古环境变异性的模式。珊瑚礁发育的物理驱动因素在空间和时间上具有很强的变异性，这使ETP成为一个很好的模式系统，可以用来研究珊瑚礁在一系列物理制度下对气候变化的反应。这项研究将提供一个独特的机会，梳理出多个空间和时间尺度上对珊瑚礁发育的控制。晚全新世中断背后的气候学与下个世纪可能出现的情景相似，这意味着气候变化可能正在将ETP(和其他地方)的珊瑚礁生态系统推向另一次崩溃。了解间歇期是如何沿着海洋梯度展开的，将增加我们预测珊瑚礁未来对快速变化的气候的反应的能力。

Coral reefs are under threat around the world, and climate change is the main reason they are declining. Knowing how local conditions on a reef exaggerate or mask the impacts of climate change make it possible to predict which reefs are most likely to survive longer and, therefore, which reefs deserve the greatest effort and funding for conservation. Reefs off the Pacific coast of Panama are vulnerable to the impacts of global climate change but are also strongly influenced by small-scale currents and other local conditions. The goal of this study is to see how those local differences affect coral growth and the ability of the corals to build reefs. Climate change appears poised to shut down reef growth off Pacific Panama within the next century. Considering that sea-level rise is accelerating at the same time, if coral reefs shut down they will not be able to protect populated shorelines from storm damage and erosion. In addition to its scientific insights, this project will provide undergraduate and graduate training, provide research training for underrepresented groups, advance women in scientific careers, and contribute important information for management and policy. The results will be incorporated into innovative curricular materials for K through 12 classes in Title-I schools in Florida aligned with Next Generation (Common Core) standards, and standards for Climate and Ocean Literacy. An annual film festival will be organized for K through 12 students to explore themes in marine science through videography.Global climate change is now the leading cause of coral-reef degradation, but the extent to which mesoscale oceanography overprints climatic forcing is poorly understood. Previous studies in Pacific Panama showed that reef ecosystems collapsed from 4100 to 1600 years ago. The 2500-yr hiatus in reef-building occurred at locations throughout the Pacific, and the primary cause was increased variability of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. This study will determine the influence of contemporary variability in mesoscale oceanography in the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP) on variability in the condition of local coral populations. Insights from the living populations will be combined with paleoecological and geochemical studies of reef frameworks to infer past conditions that were inimical or beneficial to coral growth and reef accretion. Three primary hypotheses will be tested in Pacific Panama:H1. Mesoscale oceanography is manifested in gradients of reef condition, coral growth, and coral physiological condition. Physiographic protection from upwelling currents and thermocline shoaling confers positive effects on coral growth rate and physiology.H2. The impacts of mesoscale oceanographic regimes on the growth and condition of reef-corals were felt at least as far back as the mid- to late Holocene.H3. Physiographic protection from upwelling currents and thermocline shoaling conferred positive effects on vertical reef accretion in the past and shortened the late-Holocene hiatus.Specific research approaches to test these hypotheses will include collecting high-resolution, oceanographic time series to characterize contemporary environments along gradients of physical conditions; collecting ecological and geochemical data on the condition of living coral populations; and extracting cores from the reef frameworks and analyzing the coral assemblages taxonomically, taphonomically, and geochemically to assess patterns of biotic and paleoenvironmental variability. Strong spatial and temporal variability in the physical drivers of reef development make the ETP an excellent model system in which to examine the response of coral reefs to climate change over a range of physical regimes. This research will provide a unique opportunity to tease apart the controls on reef development across multiple spatial and temporal scales. The climatology underlying the late-Holocene hiatus was similar to probable scenarios for the next century, implying that climate change could be driving reef ecosystems of the ETP (and elsewhere) toward another collapse. Understanding how the hiatus unfolded along oceanographic gradients will increase our power to predict the future responses of reefs to a rapidly changing climate.