The Influence of Recent Volcanic Eruptions on Stratospheric Ozone Recovery: A Data Analysis and Modeling Study Including Estimated Uncertainties

最近火山喷发对平流层臭氧恢复的影响：数据分析和建模研究，包括估计的不确定性

• 批准号: 1539972
• 负责人: Susan Solomon
• 金额: $ 47.07万
• 依托单位: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2015-09-01 至 2019-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1539972&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Influence; Recent; Volcanic; Eruptions; Stratospheric

This project focuses on an investigation of the effects of recent small volcanic eruptions on stratospheric ozone. It was once believed that only very explosive volcanic eruptions could affect the content of small particles in the stratospheric. However recent observations suggest that substantial volcanic enhancements of the stratospheric aerosol layer have occurred due to a series of smaller eruptions since about 2005. These eruptions have occurred just at the time when ozone recovery should be becoming more and more discernible. Volcanic aerosols have had major, well-documented effects on past changes in ozone, but have received only qualitative rather than quantitative attention in efforts to identify recovery to date. This research will advance the understanding of the sensitivity of ozone to changes in stratospheric aerosols and improve the basis for estimating uncertainty in ozone recovery. A broad range of aerosol data since 2000 from satellite- and ground-based methods will be compared and used to improve the characterization of recent stratospheric aerosol changes and the uncertainties across different measurements. Data to be used include the CCMI (Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative) project aerosol data together with lidar data from distributed stations, satellite observations, and the University of Wyoming balloonsondes. The Specified Dynamics Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (SD-WACCM) will be used in the conduct of sensitivity tests to examine how uncertainties in kinetic rate constants, in background aerosol levels, and in variability of water vapor influence how volcanic surface area changes affect ozone depletion in the lowermost stratosphere, including the region close to the tropopause.The largest stratospheric aerosol burden since 1991 was observed in 2011 following the Nabro eruption. At that time, reported column abundances of stratospheric aerosol at some locations and times reached as high as 30-50% of the maximum values obtained after Pinatubo. To date, the implications of these perturbations for mid-latitude and global ozone loss and recovery have not been assessed. Ensuring that the signature of chemical recovery can be fully understood is broadly acknowledged as a needed step in the comprehensive evaluation of scientific understanding and its role in the science-policy interface on this highly visible issue.

该项目的重点是调查最近小型火山爆发对平流层臭氧的影响。 人们曾经认为，只有非常剧烈的火山爆发才能影响平流层中微小颗粒的含量。然而，最近的观测表明，由于大约自2005年以来的一系列较小规模的火山爆发，平流层气溶胶层出现了实质性的增强。这些爆发发生在臭氧恢复应该变得越来越明显的时候。火山气溶胶对臭氧过去的变化产生了重大的、有据可查的影响，但迄今为止，在确定恢复情况的努力中，只得到了定性的关注，而没有得到定量的关注。这项研究将促进对臭氧对平流层气溶胶变化的敏感性的了解，并改善估计臭氧恢复不确定性的基础。将对2000年以来通过卫星和地面方法获得的各种气溶胶数据进行比较，并将其用于改进对最近平流层气溶胶变化的定性以及不同测量结果之间的不确定性。将使用的数据包括CCMI（化学-气候模式倡议）项目气溶胶数据以及来自分布式台站、卫星观测和怀俄明州大学气球探测器的激光雷达数据。特定动力学全大气群落气候模式（SD-WACCM）将用于进行敏感性测试，以研究动力学速率常数、背景气溶胶水平和水蒸气可变性的不确定性如何影响火山表面积变化对平流层最低层臭氧消耗的影响，2011年纳布罗火山爆发后，观测到自1991年以来平流层气溶胶负担最大。当时，报告的平流层气溶胶柱丰度在某些地点和时间达到皮纳图博事件后获得的最大值的30-50%。迄今为止，尚未评估这些扰动对中纬度和全球臭氧损失和恢复的影响。确保化学品回收的特征能够得到充分理解，被广泛认为是全面评估科学认识及其在这一高度可见问题的科学政策互动机制中的作用的必要步骤。