CPS: TTP Option: Synergy: Collaborative Research: Threat Assessment Tools for Management-Coupled Cyber- and Physical- Infrastructures

物理世界基础设施的战略决策正在迅速向普遍的网络支持范式过渡，在这种范式中，人类利益相关者和自动化可以广泛地利用网络基础设施（包括在线数据源、云计算和手持设备）。这种不断变化的模式导致了网络基础设施与多种物理世界基础设施的紧密耦合，包括航空运输和电力系统。这些管理耦合的网络和物理基础设施（mccpi）受到来自自然和感知对手的复杂威胁，这些威胁可以在网络物理、网络和人类元素之间制定复杂的传播影响。在此，我们建议开发一个用于mcpi威胁评估的建模框架和工具套件。提出的mccpi建模框架有三个方面：1)mccpi混合、随机和多层动力学的可处理矩线性建模范式；2)感知和自然对手的模型，捕获他们在网络和物理世界、智能和信任级别的测量和驱动能力；3)信息安全和漏洞的正式定义。随之而来的工具套件将提供威胁传播影响的态势感知。具体而言，将开发三个功能，称为目标、特征和防御，它们利用MCCPI的拓扑特征来评估和减轻威胁影响。然后，我们将继续进行分析，将特殊的基础设施网络特性与安全/脆弱性联系起来。作为一个中心案例研究，该框架和工具将用于战略空中交通管理的威胁评估和风险分析。将讨论三种典型类型的威胁：环境对物理威胁、网络-物理共同威胁和人在环威胁。本案例研究将包括开发和部署用于管理人为干扰空中交通系统的软件决策辅助工具。

Strategic decision-making for physical-world infrastructures is rapidly transitioning toward a pervasively cyber-enabled paradigm, in which human stakeholders and automation leverage the cyber-infrastructure at large (including on-line data sources, cloud computing, and handheld devices). This changing paradigm is leading to tight coupling of the cyber- infrastructure with multiple physical- world infrastructures, including air transportation and electric power systems. These management-coupled cyber- and physical- infrastructures (MCCPIs) are subject to complex threats from natural and sentient adversaries, which can enact complex propagative impacts across networked physical-, cyber-, and human elements. We propose here to develop a modeling framework and tool suite for threat assessment for MCCPIs. The proposed modeling framework for MCCPIs has three aspects: 1) a tractable moment-linear modeling paradigm for the hybrid, stochastic, and multi-layer dynamics of MCCPIs; 2) models for sentient and natural adversaries, that capture their measurement and actuation capabilities in the cyber- and physical- worlds, intelligence, and trust-level; and 3) formal definitions for information security and vulnerability. The attendant tool suite will provide situational awareness of the propagative impacts of threats. Specifically, three functionalities termed Target, Feature, and Defend will be developed, which exploit topological characteristics of an MCCPI to evaluate and mitigate threat impacts. We will then pursue analyses that tie special infrastructure-network features to security/vulnerability. As a central case study, the framework and tools will be used for threat assessment and risk analysis of strategic air traffic management. Three canonical types of threats will be addressed: environmental-to-physical threats, cyber-physical co-threats, and human-in-the-loop threats. This case study will include development and deployment of software decision aids for managing man-made disturbances to the air traffic system.