CPS: TTP Option: Synergy: Collaborative Research: Threat Assessment Tools for Management-Coupled Cyber- and Physical- Infrastructures

现实世界基础设施的战略决策正在迅速过渡到普遍支持网络的范式，在这种范式中，人类利益相关者和自动化利用整个网络基础设施(包括在线数据源、云计算和手持设备)。这种不断变化的模式正在导致网络基础设施与包括航空运输和电力系统在内的多个物理世界基础设施的紧密耦合。这些管理耦合的网络和物理基础设施(MCCPI)受到来自自然和敏感对手的复杂威胁，这些对手可以在联网的物理、网络和人类元素之间产生复杂的传播影响。我们建议开发一个用于MCCPIs威胁评估的建模框架和工具套件。所提出的MCCPIs建模框架有三个方面：1)针对MCCPIs的混合、随机和多层动态的易于处理的矩-线性建模范例；2)针对感知和自然对手的模型，该模型捕捉了他们在网络和物理世界、智能和信任级别的测量和驱动能力；以及3)信息安全和脆弱性的形式化定义。随行工具套件将提供对威胁传播影响的情景感知。具体地说，将开发三个功能，称为目标、功能和防御，它们利用MCCPI的拓扑特征来评估和缓解威胁影响。然后，我们将进行分析，将特殊的基础设施-网络功能与安全/漏洞联系起来。作为一个中心案例研究，该框架和工具将用于战略空中交通管理的威胁评估和风险分析。将讨论三种典型的威胁类型：环境-物理威胁、网络-物理共同威胁和人在环中威胁。该案例研究将包括开发和部署用于管理对空中交通系统的人为干扰的软件决策辅助工具。

Strategic decision-making for physical-world infrastructures is rapidly transitioning toward a pervasively cyber-enabled paradigm, in which human stakeholders and automation leverage the cyber-infrastructure at large (including on-line data sources, cloud computing, and handheld devices). This changing paradigm is leading to tight coupling of the cyber- infrastructure with multiple physical- world infrastructures, including air transportation and electric power systems. These management-coupled cyber- and physical- infrastructures (MCCPIs) are subject to complex threats from natural and sentient adversaries, which can enact complex propagative impacts across networked physical-, cyber-, and human elements. We propose here to develop a modeling framework and tool suite for threat assessment for MCCPIs. The proposed modeling framework for MCCPIs has three aspects: 1) a tractable moment-linear modeling paradigm for the hybrid, stochastic, and multi-layer dynamics of MCCPIs; 2) models for sentient and natural adversaries, that capture their measurement and actuation capabilities in the cyber- and physical- worlds, intelligence, and trust-level; and 3) formal definitions for information security and vulnerability. The attendant tool suite will provide situational awareness of the propagative impacts of threats. Specifically, three functionalities termed Target, Feature, and Defend will be developed, which exploit topological characteristics of an MCCPI to evaluate and mitigate threat impacts. We will then pursue analyses that tie special infrastructure-network features to security/vulnerability. As a central case study, the framework and tools will be used for threat assessment and risk analysis of strategic air traffic management. Three canonical types of threats will be addressed: environmental-to-physical threats, cyber-physical co-threats, and human-in-the-loop threats. This case study will include development and deployment of software decision aids for managing man-made disturbances to the air traffic system.