Dynamic Aspects of Offshoring

过去二十年来的技术进步促进了生产的国际分散。对于许多产品来说，价值链的不同部分现在都在海外生产，在某些情况下，生产分散在全球各地。有大量的理论和实证文献试图解释这种离岸外包并确定其影响。一些作者建议遵循比较优势的解释路线，另一些作者则追求不那么标准的解释路线。这份文献的总体信息是，离岸外包可能通过各种渠道获得收益，但它也指出了分配方面的影响，主要来自工资效应。绝大多数投稿使用的是从不确定性中抽象出来的静态模型。在这个项目中，我们计划通过对离岸外包采取动态的观点，并在探索离岸外包的解释和影响时考虑到不确定性，从而为这一文献做出贡献。动态模型使我们能够区分研发、实物资本或教育投资所产生的短期和长期后果。引入不确定性使我们能够将离岸外包解释为应对生产率或需求的冲击和波动的一种手段。虽然对实践者来说相对明显，但到目前为止，这些解释在理论文献中得到的关注很少。显然，考虑到动态关系和不确定性，也会产生与离岸外包相关的新的政策影响。因此，该项目还旨在解决在国际贸易和投资领域进行政策干预的潜在原因。

Technological advances over the past two decades have facilitated an international fragmentation of produc-tion. For many products, different slices of the value chain are now being produced offshore, in some cases production is spread out all around the globe. There is a large body of theoretical and empirical literature that tries to explain such offshoring and to identify its effects. Some authors suggest explanations following lines of comparative advantage, others pursue less standard lines of explanation. The overall message from this literature is that there are various channels through which offshoring might be gainful, but it also points out distributional implications, mainly from wage effects. The vast majority of contributions use static models that abstract from uncertainty. In this project we plan to contribute to this literature by taking a dynamic perspective on offshoring and by allowing for uncertainty when exploring explanations and effects of offshoring. Dynamic models allow us to distinguish between short-run and long-run consequences that derive from investments in research and development, physical capital, or education. Introducing uncertainty allows us to explain offshoring as a means to deal with shocks to, and volatility of, productivity or demand. While relatively obvious to the practitioner, these lines of explanation have so far received very scant attention in the theoretical literature. Clearly, considering dynamic relationships and uncertainty also gives rise to novel policy implications related to offshoring. Hence, the project is also intended to address potential reasons for policy intervention in the area of international trade and investment.