Collaborative Research: Assessing and Understanding Climate Change in South America

观测到的温度和降水记录表明，南美洲的几个地区已经在经历气候变化的影响。该项目的一个总体目标是确定观测到的关键气候变量（如降水、温度和湿度）的变化是人类活动的结果，还是与自然发生的气候变率有关，还是两者兼而有之。鉴于其具有影响力的农业部门，南美洲的气候变率和变化可能产生全球影响。这一目标将通过两项任务来实现。第一项任务是评估这些关键气候变量的变化是否与自然发生的气候变率可能产生的趋势有显著不同。迄今为止，人类对非洲大陆气候的影响程度也将被量化。第二项任务将是系统地研究导致南美洲自然气候变率的机制，包括厄尔Niño南方涛动等变率模式。利用对观测到的气候变化的自然和人为影响的全面了解，将评估当前最先进的气候模式在模拟过去时再现这些特征的能力。如果某一气候模式能够以合理的技巧模拟观测到的气候趋势和自然气候变率的特征，则可以提高对未来气候预测的信心。该项目的一个主要目标是开发以简洁和易于解释的方式传达调查结果的多维性的方法，以便更好地向对南美洲气候信息感兴趣的社区提供信息。此外，这里使用的方法和方法将扩展到世界其他地区。该项目的主要结果将通过一个用户友好的网站进行展示、解释和公开，以服务于科学和非科学受众。这些结果将通过与世界气候研究计划的协调区域气候降尺度实验（CORDEX）相关的电子邮件列表在整个南美气候科学和信息社区传播。此外，该项目将支持一名博士后科学家和一名研究生的专业发展。所有团队成员将参与在同行评议的科学期刊上发表成果，并在相关专业会议上报告结果。在所有情况下，演讲风格将针对对南美气候科学和信息感兴趣的广泛社区。

The observational temperature and precipitation records suggest that several regions of South America are already experiencing the effects of climate change. An overarching goal of this project is to determine whether observed changes in key climate variables, such as precipitation, temperature, and humidity are a result of human activities, related to naturally occurring climate variability, or a combination of both. Given its influential agricultural sector, climate variability and change in South America can have global ramifications. This goal will be accomplished through two tasks. The first task is to assess whether the changes in these key climate variables differ significantly from trends that could arise as a result of naturally occurring climate variability. The extent to which humans have influenced climate over the continent to date will also be quantified. The second task will be to systematically examine mechanisms leading to natural climate variability over South America, including patterns of variability such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Using this comprehensive understanding of the natural and anthropogenic influences on observed changes in climate, the ability of current state-of-the-art climate models to reproduce these features in simulations of the past will be evaluated. In the case that a given climate model can simulate observed trends in climate and features of natural climate variability with reasonable skill, confidence in future projections of climate can be boosted. A major goal of this project to develop methods of conveying the multi-dimensional nature of the investigation results in a concise and easily interpretable way to better inform those communities interested in climate information for South America. Furthermore, the approaches and methods used here will be extensible to other regions of the world. Key results of the project will be presented, interpreted, and made publicly available via a user-friendly website to serve both scientific and non-scientific audiences. These results will be communicated throughout the South American climate science and information communities via an email list associated with the World Climate Research Programme's Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). Additionally, the project will support the professional development of a postdoctoral scientist and a graduate student. All team members will participate in publishing results in peer-reviewed scientific journals and in reporting results at relevant professional conferences and meetings. In all cases, the presentation style will aim to the broad community interested in South American climate science and information.