Collaborative Research: Atmospheric Ridging over Western North America in Current and Future Climates

合作研究：当前和未来气候下北美西部的大气脊

• 批准号: 2206997
• 负责人: Paul Loikith
• 金额: $ 25.51万
• 依托单位: Portland State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-07-01 至 2025-06-30
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2206997&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Atmospheric; Ridging; over

Atmospheric ridges are elongated regions of high pressure relative to their surroundings that are typically associated with warm and dry conditions at the surface. Such atmospheric features have contributed to notable extreme events in the region, including the 2021 Northwest Heatwave, droughts, and the 2020 Labor Day Fires that burned across Oregon and Washington. While ridges are a normal part of the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation, their occurrence over western North America is influenced by multiple unique factors including proximity to the Pacific Ocean, interactions between the Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere and the complex topography of western North America. The overarching goal of this project is to advance our basic understanding of the components of the Earth system that influence atmospheric ridges over western North America, which could help identify sources for their seasonal to sub-seasonal predictions and investigate how and why ridges will respond to continued global warming. The project will target three key questions using a combination of observations and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) climate model simulations: (1) How do various atmosphere, ocean and land-surface conditions influence characteristics of atmospheric ridges such as their extent, frequency, persistence and amplitude? (2) How are simulated changes in ridge characteristics influenced by changes in these physical drivers? and (3) How do potential changes in ridge characteristics interact with warming to influence surface climate and extremes in the region? In addition, detailed analyses of the physical mechanisms associated with extreme ridges (very large, very amplified, and/or very persistent ridges) will be conducted, as they are likely associated with the most significant climate impacts. Together, the proposed work will provide an understanding of the physical mechanisms associated with weather and climate extremes that are associated with major societal impacts, in current and future warmer climates.The proposed work will advance the understanding of how and why natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change influences this important atmospheric feature. Findings will facilitate the evaluation of implications of current and future weather and climate extremes that affect various sectors including human health, water resources, infrastructure, the regional economy, and emergency management resources. The outcomes of this work are directly translatable to impacts on society and the environment, thus aiding planning and adaptation measures. The proposed work will address gaps in scientific literature about how factors such as natural climate variability modes such as El Niño Southern Oscillation and anomalous soil-moisture conditions influence ridging in this region. The methods, framework, and insights developed from this work will be extensible to other mid-latitude regions. The project will involve training a postdoctoral researcher and a graduate student, who will be directly supported by the project, as well as undergraduate students from underrepresented backgrounds at Washington State University Vancouver (WSUV) and Portland State University (PSU). It will directly contribute to building STEM research infrastructure at WSUV, which is a primarily undergraduate institution with ~44% first-generation students, ~55% women and ~33% students of color. The investigators, postdoc, and graduate student will participate in the Oregon Museum of Science and Industry (OMSI) Science Communication Fellowship program that involves creating hands-on activities to demonstrate our research to the museum visitors and for the team's outreach efforts with local educators, schools, community groups and stakeholders. Finally, this project will provide a basic science underpinning for recent applied climate research by the PSU Climate Science Lab in partnership local water utilities.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

大气脊是相对于其周围环境的细长高压区域，通常与地表的温暖和干燥条件有关。这些大气特征导致了该地区显著的极端事件，包括2021年西北热浪、干旱以及2020年横跨俄勒冈州和华盛顿的劳动节大火。虽然海脊是中纬度大气环流的正常部分，但它们在北美西部的出现受到多种独特因素的影响，包括靠近太平洋、太平洋与大气之间的相互作用以及北美西部复杂的地形。该项目的总体目标是促进我们对影响北美西部大气脊的地球系统组成部分的基本了解，这将有助于确定季节性和亚季节性预测的来源，并调查脊如何以及为什么会对持续的全球变暖作出反应。该项目将结合观测和耦合模式相互比较项目气候模式模拟，针对三个关键问题：（1）各种大气、海洋和地表条件如何影响大气脊的特征，如其范围、频率、持久性和幅度？ (2)这些物理驱动因素的变化如何影响脊特征的模拟变化？以及（3）脊特征的潜在变化如何与变暖相互作用，从而影响该地区的地面气候和极端事件？ 此外，还将详细分析与极端海脊（非常大、非常扩大和/或非常持久的海脊）有关的物理机制，因为它们可能与最重大的气候影响有关。拟议的工作将共同提供与天气和气候极端事件相关的物理机制的理解，这些极端事件与当前和未来的温暖气候中的重大社会影响有关，拟议的工作将促进理解自然气候变异性和人为气候变化如何以及为什么会影响这一重要的大气特征。研究结果将有助于评估当前和未来极端天气和气候的影响，这些极端天气和气候影响包括人类健康、水资源、基础设施、区域经济和应急管理资源在内的各个部门。这项工作的成果可直接转化为对社会和环境的影响，从而有助于规划和适应措施。拟议的工作将填补科学文献中关于自然气候变异模式（如厄尔尼诺、南方涛动）和异常土壤湿度条件等因素如何影响该区域起垄的空白。从这项工作中开发的方法，框架和见解将扩展到其他中纬度地区。该项目将涉及培训一名博士后研究员和一名研究生，他们将得到该项目的直接支持，以及来自华盛顿州立大学温哥华（WSUV）和波特兰州立大学（PSU）代表性不足背景的本科生。它将直接有助于在WSUV建立STEM研究基础设施，WSUV是一所主要的本科院校，约44%的第一代学生，约55%的女性和约33%的有色人种学生。调查人员，博士后和研究生将参加科学与工业（OMSI）科学交流奖学金计划的俄勒冈州博物馆，包括创建动手活动，以展示我们的研究博物馆游客和团队的推广工作与当地教育工作者，学校，社区团体和利益相关者。最后，该项目将为PSU气候科学实验室最近与当地水务公司合作开展的应用气候研究提供基础科学支持。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Meteorological Analysis of the Pacific Northwest June 2021 Heatwave

2021 年 6 月太平洋西北地区热浪气象分析

• DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-22-0284.1
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Monthly Weather Review
• 影响因子: 3.2
• 作者: Loikith, Paul C.;Kalashnikov, Dmitri A.
• 通讯作者: Kalashnikov, Dmitri A.