Do Welfare Drug Offender Bans Affect Recidivism?

福利和刑事司法系统之间的相互关系已经研究了很久，但是，他们之间的连接结构的关键结果，如犯罪，个人，很少被探讨。该项目测试刑事司法以外的机构的政府政策是否对塑造违法行为有影响。为了做到这一点，它关注的是一个潜在的突出，但往往被忽视的福利政策，可能会对犯罪行为的严重后果。具体而言，1996年的福利改革政策包括一项规定，即被判犯有与毒品有关的重罪的个人终身不得领取现金援助和食品券（1996年《个人责任和工作机会协调法》第115条a）。近二十年后，仍不清楚这些政策如何影响不再符合条件的个人的刑事犯罪和累犯。 这些政策是否通过促进政府多尔的自给自足来减少越轨行为？或者，他们是否通过消除经济拮据的人的关键资源来增加犯罪？为了回答这些问题，该项目研究了这些禁令对累犯结果的影响，包括逮捕，定罪，监禁和累犯时间。它还考虑了禁令是否根据福利计划，人口分组，当地劳动力市场条件，犯罪类型和判决结果产生了不同的影响。由于刑事司法机构面临严重的财政限制，了解福利政策是否加剧了犯罪并增加了有前科的个人的监狱准入至关重要。 利用来自加州的行政记录，该项目将采用一种新的分析方法--回归不连续性（RD）分析--来估计禁令的因果影响。RD设计被认为是“准实验”方法，其利用治疗变量的随机变化来近似实验设计的测试前和测试后比较。在与毒品有关的重罪和公共援助禁令的情况下，RD分析方法解决了几个问题，这些问题阻碍了以前的努力，使因果关系索赔的影响排除。使用这种方法，该项目将提供迄今为止关于现金和食品券禁令对累犯的影响的最强有力的证据，并将提供考虑到刑事司法后果的福利政策的成本节约（或成本支出）的点估计。此外，该项目将区分累犯的影响，福利计划和人口分组，如妇女和少数民族。 它还将研究当地劳动力市场条件是否会减轻累犯禁令的后果，以及排除是否会影响某些类型的犯罪行为，如与金钱有关的犯罪，或判刑结果的类型，如监禁。

The interrelationships between welfare and criminal justice systems have long been studied; however, their connections for structuring key outcomes among individuals, such as offending, have been rarely explored. This project tests whether government policies of agencies outside of criminal justice are consequential for shaping law-breaking behavior. To do so, it focuses on a potentially salient but often-overlooked welfare policy that may have critical consequences for criminal behavior. Specifically, the 1996 welfare reform policies included a provision to exclude individuals convicted of drug-related felonies from receiving cash assistance and food stamps for their lifetimes (Section 115 of Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996a). Nearly two decades later, it remains unclear how these policies impact criminal offending and recidivism among the individuals who no longer qualify. Have the policies decreased deviant behavior by promoting self-sufficiency from the government dole? Alternatively, have they increased offending by eliminating critical resources to people in financially constrained circumstances? To answer these questions, this project examines the effect of these bans for recidivism outcomes, including arrests, convictions, incarcerations, and time to recidivism. It also considers whether the bans have had differential impacts depending on the benefit program, demographic subgroups, local labor market conditions, crime types, and sentencing outcomes. With criminal justice agencies facing severe financial constraints, it is critical to understand whether welfare policies are exacerbating crime and increasing prison admissions among individuals with previous convictions. Using administrative records from California, the project will employ a novel analytic method--regression discontinuity (RD) analysis--to estimate the causal impact of the bans. RD designs are considered "quasi-experimental" approaches that take advantage of random variation in a treatment variable to approximate pre- and post-test comparisons of experimental designs. In the case of drug-related felonies and public assistance bans, RD analysis methods address several issues that have hampered previous efforts to make causal claims about the effect of the exclusions. Using this method, the project will provide the strongest evidence to date about the impacts of the cash and food stamp bans for recidivism and will provide point estimates of cost-savings (or cost-expenditures) of the welfare policies given criminal justice consequences. In addition, the project will differentiate recidivism effects by benefit program and demographic subgroups, such as women and minorities. It will also examine whether local labor market conditions moderate the consequences of the bans for recidivism, and whether the exclusions impact certain types of criminal behavior, such as pecuniary-related crimes, or types of sentencing outcomes, such as incarceration.