Plant community assembly and disassembly with climate change

气候变化下植物群落的组装和解体

• 批准号: 1555883
• 负责人: David Perkel
• 金额: $ 62万
• 依托单位: University of Washington
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2016-04-01 至 2022-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1555883&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Plant; community; assembly; disassembly; climate

How strongly does climate influence the composition of ecological communities? If climate is the predominant force structuring communities, climate warming should predictably result in the loss of cold-adapted species at the expense of warm-adapted species in local communities. Alternatively, if regional climate doesn't strongly structure local communities, then species composition may not change much with climate change. However, an apparent lack of change in the species composition of local communities experiencing climate warming can also arise from a limited ability of species to shift their geographic ranges, e.g., slow rate of dispersal. Unfortunately, these two possibilities have very different implications; the first suggests communities may be somewhat resilient to climate change, while the latter implies community sensitivity, especially as climate change accelerates. This research will test the importance of community resilience vs. sensitivity to recent and future climate change, by examining unique historic data sets of plant species composition collected across regional climatic gradients in two Pacific Northwest National Parks. The project will contribute to our understanding of the consequences of climate change and communicate this information to National Park Service and other resource managers in the Pacific Northwest. This project will also provide opportunities for student research and training that will strengthen the scientific workforce.This project will make progress on the problem of predicting change in plant communities with climate change given apparent stasis, despite the inherent challenges of differentiating drivers with similar expected outcomes. Specifically, this project will determine how strongly climate influences plant communities in the mountains of the Pacific Northwest. Hypotheses on relations of community composition and bioclimatic variables will be tested using resurvey data sets of plant community composition originally collected over 30 years ago in two National Parks (North Cascades National Park and Mount Rainier National Park). This historic data will be combined with newly developed joint species distribution models and high resolution data on the landscape features that influence microclimate. Research objectives are to: I. Assess the importance of macro and microclimatic variables for community composition; II. Examine community shifts over the last four decades to determine whether compositional turnover with recent climate change is consistent with climatic buffering (resilience) vs. lagged species responses (sensitivity); and III. Conduct a multi-species seed addition experiment across large-scale and fine-scale climatic gradients to parse out the roles of recruitment limitation and demographic inertia (factors that contributed to time-lagged sensitivity) and macro- or microclimatic buffering (factors that promote resilience to climate change) in the early stages of community assembly.

气候对生态群落组成的影响有多大？如果气候是构建群落的主导力量，那么气候变暖应该可以预见地导致适应冷的物种的减少，而当地群落中适应暖的物种则会减少。或者，如果区域气候对当地群落的结构没有很强的影响，那么物种组成可能不会随着气候变化而发生太大变化。然而，经历气候变暖的当地群落的物种组成明显缺乏变化，也可能是由于物种改变其地理范围的能力有限，例如，扩散速度缓慢。不幸的是，这两种可能性有非常不同的含义；前者表明社区可能对气候变化有一定的适应能力，而后者意味着社区的敏感性，尤其是在气候变化加速的情况下。本研究将通过检查在两个太平洋西北国家公园收集的跨区域气候梯度的植物物种组成的独特历史数据集，测试社区恢复力与对近期和未来气候变化的敏感性的重要性。该项目将有助于我们了解气候变化的后果，并将这些信息传达给国家公园管理局和太平洋西北地区的其他资源管理者。该项目还将为学生研究和培训提供机会，从而加强科学队伍。该项目将在气候变化明显停滞的情况下预测植物群落变化的问题上取得进展，尽管区分具有相似预期结果的驱动因素存在固有挑战。具体来说，这个项目将确定气候对太平洋西北部山区植物群落的影响有多大。利用30多年前在两个国家公园（北喀斯喀特国家公园和雷尼尔山国家公园）收集的植物群落组成调查数据集，对群落组成与生物气候变量关系的假设进行了检验。这些历史数据将与新开发的联合物种分布模型和影响小气候的景观特征的高分辨率数据相结合。研究目标是：1 .评估宏观和微气候变量对群落组成的重要性；2。检查过去40年的群落变化，以确定最近气候变化的组成更替是否与气候缓冲（恢复力）与滞后的物种响应（敏感性）相一致；ⅲ。在大尺度和精细尺度的气候梯度上进行多物种种子添加实验，分析招募限制和人口惯性（导致时间滞后敏感性的因素）以及宏观或小气候缓冲（促进气候变化复原力的因素）在群落聚集早期阶段的作用。