Collaborative Research: Heterogeneity and Structural Duration Dependence in Macroeconomics

合作研究：宏观经济学中的异质性和结构持续时间依赖性

• 批准号: 1559459
• 负责人: Robert Shimer
• 金额: $ 35.27万
• 依托单位: University of Chicago
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2016-07-15 至 2021-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1559459&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Heterogeneity; Structural; Duration

This project is funded by NSF awards 1559459 and 155922. The research team seeks to test models of duration dependence in macroeconomics. The work focuses directly on how to analyze duration data from labor markets, including the duration/length of spells of unemployment. Some workers experience long-term unemployment, while others who are also unemployed rapidly find new jobs. Similarly, some people stay with the same employer for many years (a long duration on the job) while others switch to a new job after a short stay. The PIs want compare different models of the processes that lead to these durations. They want to build new and tractable models and also plan to estimate and test the models to see which model is best supported by the data. The research will help us understand the nature of long-term unemployment, and it will benefit the U.S. economy by giving us a better basis for predicting the effects of certain kinds of public policy (such as extending unemployment benefits) on the economy.The team plans to examine the nature of duration dependence in existing reduced-form models, such as the proportional hazard and the accelerated failure times models with unobserved heterogeneity. They also devlop new structural models, including a stopping time model, to offer a more economic interpretation of duration data, while allowing for arbitrary unobserved heterogeneity. They plan to use large existing data sets on labor market outcomes and on prices in order to estimate and test these models. The research has the potential to be useful in a wide variety of applications, since duration models have been used to study many different economic phenomena, including the determinants of business investment, housing turnover, nominal price stickiness, and the purchase of consumer durables as well as others.

该项目由NSF奖1559459和155922资助。该研究小组试图测试宏观经济学中的持续时间依赖模型。这项工作直接关注如何分析劳动力市场的持续时间数据，包括失业的持续时间/长度。一些工人长期失业，而另一些失业者则迅速找到新工作。 同样，有些人在同一个雇主工作多年（工作时间很长），而另一些人在短暂停留后换了一份新工作。PI希望比较导致这些持续时间的过程的不同模型。他们希望构建新的易于处理的模型，并计划估计和测试模型，以查看哪个模型最受数据支持。这项研究将帮助我们理解长期失业的本质，并为我们预测某些公共政策的影响提供更好的基础，从而使美国经济受益该团队计划在现有的简化形式模型中研究持续时间依赖的性质，如比例风险模型和加速失效时间模型。他们还开发了新的结构模型，包括停止时间模型，以提供更经济的解释持续时间数据，同时允许任意未观察到的异质性。他们计划使用现有的大量劳动力市场结果和价格数据集来估计和测试这些模型。该研究有可能是有用的，在各种各样的应用，因为持续时间模型已被用于研究许多不同的经济现象，包括企业投资，住房周转，名义价格粘性的决定因素，以及耐用消费品的购买以及其他。