Doctoral Dissertation: The Political Effects of Rule-Based Social Policies

本项目旨在解释基于规则的社会政策如何导致公民赋权。具体而言，本研究考察了向农村公民提供有保障的公共服务是否会随着时间的推移切断这些公民与使用裙带主义方法施加政治控制的农村政治领导人之间的关系。该指数考察了国家政策（如巴西的有条件现金转移计划Bolsa Familia）对地方政治的影响。本研究将收集巴西东北部当地政治态度和行为的家庭调查数据。PI在三个州的30个城市收集了2,040人的目标分层样本，这将有助于对国家基于规则的社会计划的受益者和非受益者进行对照比较。数据将使用层次回归模型进行分析，以确定(1)政治关系、公民实践和投票行为是否受到国家基于规则的社会政策的影响，以及(2)这种关系在多大程度上取决于城市和国家治理背景。本研究旨在了解安全获取社会政策是否可以将依赖的客户转变为自主和积极的公民。该项目还旨在帮助解决关于基于规则的社会政策的政治影响的争论。该项目将提供新的证据、工具和数据集，帮助决策者了解政策如何影响下游政策需求，并帮助建立有效的地方民主。民意调查收集公民对政府的经历、他们的自主权和他们的投票行为的数据。PI在巴西东北部三个州的30个城市收集了2040人的目标分层样本，这将有助于对国家基于规则的社会项目的受益者和非受益者进行对照比较。这种数据收集策略有助于对基于规则的国家社会方案的受益者和非受益者进行有控制的比较。列表和联合调查实验进行揭示敏感措施，如投票动机，政治自治和暴露于clientelism。通过筛选接近社会政策资格门槛的受访者，并利用一些受访者在符合条件但尚未获得福利的等候名单上这一事实，将改善推论杠杆作用。数据将使用层次回归模型进行分析，以确定(1)政治关系、公民实践和投票行为是否受到国家基于规则的社会政策的影响，以及(2)这种关系在多大程度上取决于城市和国家治理背景。

General SummaryThis project seeks to explain how rule-based social policy can lead to citizen empowerment. Specifically, this research examines whether the extension of guaranteed public service access to rural-based citizens severs over time the relationship between these citizens and rural political leaders who use clientalistic methods to exert political control. The PI examines the effect of national policies (like the conditional cash transfer Bolsa Familia program in Brazil) affect local politics. This research will collect household survey data on local political attitudes and behavior in Northeast Brazil. The PI collects a targeted stratified sample of 2,040 people in 30 municipalities in three states will facilitate controlled comparisons between the beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries of national rule-based social programs. The data will be analyzed using a hierarchical regression model to identify (1) whether political relationships, citizen practices and voting behavior are affected by experiences with national rule-based social policies, and (2) to what extent this relationship varies depending on the municipal and state governance context.Technical SummaryThis research seeks to understand whether secure access to social policy can turn dependent clients into autonomous and active citizens. It is also designed to help resolve debates about the political effects of rule-based social policy, the project will provide new evidence, tools and datasets to help policymakers understand how policies can shape downstream policy demands and help build effective local democracy. The PI gathers data on citizens' experiences with government, their autonomy and their voting behavior. The PI collects a targeted stratified sample of 2,040 people in 30 municipalities in three states in Northeast Brazil will facilitate controlled comparisons between the beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries of national rule-based social programs. This data collection strategy facilitates controlled comparisons between the beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries of national rule-based social programs. List and conjoint survey experiments are performed to uncover sensitive measures such as voting motivations, political autonomy and exposure to clientelism. Inferential leverage will be improved by screening for respondents who are close to the eligibility thresholds for social policy, and by exploiting the fact that some respondents are on waiting lists where they are eligible but have not yet received a benefit. The data will be analyzed using a hierarchical regression model to identify (1) whether political relationships, citizen practices and voting behavior are affected by experiences with national rule-based social policies, and (2) to what extent this relationship varies depending on the municipal and state governance context.