Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Public Support and Democracy: Identifying Causal Mechanisms for Erosion of Democracy in Latin America

是什么为反民主分子控制民主机构创造了空间？ 公众舆论在多大程度上促成了反民主运动的出现，创造了一种有利于对民主承诺脆弱的反党政客崛起的气氛？ 通过解决这些问题，拟议中的研究旨在推进现有的知识与公众舆论和民主政权的稳定性之间的关系。 该研究挑战了民主和民主化研究中的一个主要共识：政治精英在民主崩溃中的中心地位。 它试图通过探索两个层次的分析之间的联系来做到这一点：宏观层次的制度和微观层次的态度和行为。 具体而言，它研究了民主表现如何塑造大众对民主和民主机构的态度，特别是政党，以及这些如何通过选举影响民主政权的稳定。 拟议的研究将有助于现有的知识，什么维持民主，因此，其稳定性，影响人们的日常生活，同时，它涉及重要的理论问题。 拟议的研究项目测试三个相互竞争的假设，为什么公民失去了对政党的信心，转向反党的政治家。 它侧重于对政党信任的构成要素，并引入了一个原创概念，即联系型假设，以解释为什么有些国家的一些公民对政党失去信心，而另一些国家则没有。 为了检验这些关于政党信任构成要素的相互竞争的假设，该项目采用了两个分析单位，即个人和国家。 它还结合了多种分析方法。 要求国家基金会提供资金，委托在委内瑞拉加拉加斯和秘鲁利马-卡亚俄的主要大都市地区进行55-58个问题的原始调查，抽样规模为600人。 这一较大的项目将利用其他现有的和有待提供的支助，包括对阿根廷布宜诺斯艾利斯大都市进行一次类似的调查。 调查的定量分析将与焦点小组访谈、人种学研究和比较历史分析的结果相结合。 焦点小组访谈和人种学研究已经并将继续用于预先测试共同调查员制定的调查问题。 比较历史分析将使共同主要利益相关者能够对个人所处或曾经所处的国家背景进行比较。 反过来，这将有助于解释调查的答复和探索政权的表现和稳定之间的联系，一方面，群众的态度和行为，另一方面。 拟议中的研究项目将具有重大的学术价值。 预计它将产生一些期刊文章，最终在一篇论文和一本书中使用原始数据来回答一个关于民主政权稳定性的具有重大当代意义的问题：为什么拉丁美洲公民支持对民主承诺脆弱的反党政客？ 在本书出版后，本项目收集的主要数据将应要求提供给其他人。 尽管拟议的研究将注意力集中在拉丁美洲反党政客的崛起上，但其研究结果可以应用于世界其他地区和案例，包括中欧和东欧，这些政客也在崛起。 由于拟议的研究涉及可能发展为暴力冲突的不稳定根源，如委内瑞拉的情况，因此它对预防暴力冲突和在冲突后社会重建稳定的民主制度也有影响。 除了促进知识和理解，拟议的研究还有望对社会产生更广泛的影响。 它将扩大代表性不足群体在社会中的参与，雇用妇女和少数民族在秘鲁和委内瑞拉进行调查，并在项目后期在圣母大学解码数据。 最后，根据与凯洛格研究所富布赖特教育伙伴关系方案达成的协议，研究结果将被纳入一门课程，该课程要求共同研究员在从圣母大学实地考察返回后教授安第斯政治和政治经济学。

What creates a space for antidemocratic elements to gain control over democratic institutions? To what extent does public opinion contribute to the emergence of antidemocratic movements by creating an atmosphere that is conducive to the rise of antiparty politicians with a tenuous commitment to democracy? By addressing these questions, the proposed research seeks to advance existing knowledge vis-a-vis the relationship between public opinion and the stability of democratic regimes. The research challenges one of the major consensuses in the study of democracy and democratization: the centrality of political elites in the breakdown of democracy. It attempts to do so by exploring links between the two levels of analysis: the macro-level of the regime and the micro-level of attitudes and behavior. Specifically, it examines how democratic performance shapes mass attitudes concerning democracy and democratic institutions, or political parties in particular, and how these affect the stability of democratic regimes via elections. The proposed research would contribute to existing knowledge of what sustains democracy and, consequently, its stability that affects people.s daily lives, at the same time as it attends to important theoretical concerns. The proposed research project tests three competing hypotheses with respect to why citizens lose confidence in political parties and turn to antiparty politicians. It focuses on the constituent elements of trust in political parties, and introduces an original concept, the linkage-type hypothesis, to explain why some citizens in some countries lose faith in parties while others do not. In order to test these competing hypotheses concerning the constituent elements of trust in political parties, the project works with two units of analysis, individuals and countries. It also combines multiple methods of analysis. NSF funding is requested to commission original surveys of 55-58 questions with a sample size of 600 in the major metropolitan areas of Caracas, Venezuela and Lima-Callao, Peru. The larger project, which draws from other current and pending support, will include a similar survey of metropolitan Buenos Aires, Argentina. Quantitative analyses of the surveys will be combined with findings from focus group interviews, ethnographic research, and comparative historical analysis. Focus group interviews and ethnographic research have been, and will be, used to pretest the survey questions developed by the Co-PI. Comparative historical analysis will allow the Co-PI to engage in the comparison of the national contexts in which individuals are, or were, placed. This, in turn, is expected to assist the interpretation of survey responses and the exploration of links between regime performance and stability, on the one hand, and mass attitudes and behavior, on the other. The proposed research project will have substantial intellectual merit. It is expected to yield a number of journal articles, culminating in a dissertation and a book that employ original data to answer a question of great contemporary significance concerning the stability of democratic regimes: why do Latin American citizens support antiparty politicians with a tenuous commitment to democracy? The primary data gathered in this project will be made available to others upon request, following the publication of the book. Although the proposed research focuses its attention on the rise of antiparty politicians in Latin America, its findings can be applied to other regions and cases around the world, including Central and Eastern Europe, where such politicians are also ascendant. Because the proposed study deals with the sources of instability that could develop into violent conflict as it did in Venezuela, it also has implications for both the prevention of violent conflict and the reconstruction of stable democratic regimes in post-conflict societies. Besides advancing knowledge and understanding, the proposed research also is expected to have broader impacts on society. It will broaden the participation of underrepresented groups in society by hiring women and minorities to administer surveys in Peru and Venezuela and to decode the data at the University of Notre Dame in a later stage of the project. Finally, the study findings will be integrated into a course that the Co-PI is required to teach about Andean politics and political economy, following her return from the fieldwork at the University of Notre Dame, in accordance with an agreement with the Kellogg Institute Fulbright Educational Partnerships Program.