Slicing the Pie: Quantifying the Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Trade

这个项目开发并应用了一个框架来衡量国际贸易对一国经济的影响。这不仅包括对总体影响的衡量，也包括对国际贸易的分配和就业影响的衡量。该框架不需要贸易改革的数据，因此可以用来理解拟议的贸易改革的变化；这是对当前方法的进步，现有方法可以评估过去贸易改革的影响，但对预测未来结果没有那么有用。该项目将产生一种量化方法，用于预测国际贸易流动的变化如何影响就业，以及贸易增加的好处和成本如何影响不同类型的工人。因此，该项目以一种创新的方式为我们提供了关于增加的国际贸易流量是否减少或加剧同一国家公民之间的经济不平等的科学证据。因此，该项目直接有助于更好的公共政策，并将有助于提高美国经济的竞争力。该项目包括对世界贸易和劳动力市场的新的一般均衡分析，对贸易总收益的量化、它们的分配以及与制造业就业的联系产生了新的见解。关键的理论创新是扩展贸易的多部门引力模型，以允许不同部门的工人能力不同，不同群体的工人在事前相同的情况下存在系统性差异。与罗伊模型一样，工人根据比较优势选择行业。该模型是基准特定因素模型的自然推广，用于分析贸易对劳动力市场的影响。该模型允许根据教育、年龄和性别等特征对群体进行不同的定义，从而能够在一个简单和透明的量化框架内研究贸易在不同利益方面的分配后果。当按照地理基础定义群体时，可以证明该模型为最近关于国家内部区域间贸易差异影响的工作提供了理论基础(例如，Autor、Dorn和Hanson，2013)。基准模型足够灵活，可以很容易地沿着几个维度进行扩展，使量化结果更具说服力，同时也提供了冲击(如中国加薪)对制造业就业的影响的影响，这是一个最近受到相当大关注的问题。特别是，扩展的模型可以用来阐明财政转移(如残疾保险)和区域间贸易不平衡在影响通过工资和就业变化吸收贸易冲击的方式方面的数量作用。该项目灵活的贸易总量和分配后果框架可用于分析一系列广泛的贸易改革的影响，如北美自由贸易协定，或可能的跨大西洋或跨太平洋自由化，跨越多个国家

This project develops and applies a framework to measure the impact of international trade on a nation's economy. This includes not just measures of the total impact, but also measurements of the distributional and employment effects of international trade. The framework does not require data from trade reforms, so it can be used to understand the changes of proposed trade reforms; this is an advance over the current methods, which can evaluate the effects of past trade reform but are not as useful for predicting future outcomes. The project will result in a quantitative method for predict how changes in international trade flows affect employment and how the benefits and costs of increased trade affect different kinds of workers. As a result, the project contributes in an innovative way to our scientific evidence about whether or not increased international trade flows reduce or exacerbate economic inequality between citizens of the same country. As a result, the project contributes directly to better public policy and will help to improve the competitiveness of the US economy.This project includes a novel general-equilibrium analysis of world trade and labor markets that yields new insights into the quantification of both the aggregate gains from trade, their distribution, and the connection with manufacturing employment. The key theoretical innovation is to extend the multi-sector gravity model of trade to allow for heterogeneity in worker ability across sectors, with systematic differences across groups of ex-ante identical workers. As in the Roy model, workers select into sectors based on comparative advantage. The model serves as a natural generalization of the benchmark specific-factors model for analyzing the distributional labor market consequences of trade. The model allows for alternative definitions of groups based on characteristics such as education, age, and gender, thus enabling the study of the distributional consequences of trade along different dimensions of interest in a simple and transparent quantitative framework. When groups are defined along a geographical basis,the model can be shown to provide a theoretical foundation for recent work on the differential effect of trade across regions within countries (e.g., Autor, Dorn, and Hanson, 2013). The baseline model is flexible enough that it can be easily extended along several dimensions that make the quantitative results more compelling while also providing implications for the effects of shocks (such as the raise of China) on manufacturing employment, a question that has received considerable recent attention. In particular, the extended model can be used to shed light on the quantitative role of fiscal transfers (e.g., disability insurance) and trade imbalances across regions in affecting the way in which a trade shock is absorbed through changes in wages and employment. This project's flexible framework of the aggregate and distributional consequences of trade can be employed to analyze the impact of a broad set of trade-reforms, such as NAFTA, or possible trans-Atlantic or trans-Pacific liberalizations, across multiple countries