The Essential Dynamics of Tropical Rain Belts: Monsoons and Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in a Multi-model Ensemble of Idealized Simulations

了解热带地区海洋和大陆上的降雨量福尔斯的位置、时间和数量对生活在那里的人们有直接的影响，也是了解整个地球仪大气环流的关键信息。这是因为--随着水分从海洋中蒸发，被风输送，最后被雨水带走--能量随着它一起穿过一个影响各地气候的行星热机。该项目旨在阐明热带降雨量如何随着能量进入热带大气的方式的变化而变化，无论这些变化是季节交替、地球轨道摆动还是大气成分的人为变化的结果。这项研究的目标是解决海洋雨带和区域季风之间的动力学的基本相似性和差异;其方法是分析与全球大气的计算机模型合奏进行模拟的层次结构，比较理想化的模型设置中产生的气候，并确定这些机制是强大的在一系列的简化。这项研究工作将在两个领域产生重大影响：我们对热带动力学的理解和我们对模型层次结构的设计。如果我们想改进我们的模型，改善我们对热带和全球未来气候变化的预测，这两方面的进展都是必要的。这一努力将支持社区努力的持续和有重点的领导，以促进对季风和海洋雨带动态的创新研究。将通过在国际会议上组织会议和非正式会议，继续在该项目基础上设计和协调整体模拟，使这一重大挑战的参与者能够交流成果并规划更多的研究活动。一名博士后科学家，一名研究生和三名本科生将接受该项目的培训，并从与围绕这些主题聚集的更大社区的互动中受益。从该项目中获得的知识将纳入讲座和外联活动，包括美国自然历史博物馆的拉蒙开放日和成人教育。研究结果还将通过哥伦比亚大学地球研究所的地球状况博客进行报告。

Knowing where, when, and how much rainfall falls over oceans and continents across the tropics matters directly to the people who live there and is also a key piece of information to understand the atmospheric circulation over the entire globe. This is because -as moisture is evaporated from the ocean, transported by winds, and finally rained out - energy is moved with it across a planetary heat engine that affects climate everywhere. This project aims at elucidating how tropical rainfall changes in response to changes in the way energy enters the tropical atmosphere, be they the results of the alternating of seasons, the wobble of the earth's orbit, or the man-made changes in atmospheric composition. The goal of this research is to address the essential similarities and differences in their dynamics between the oceanic rain belt and the regional monsoons; its approach is to analyze a hierarchy of simulations performed with an ensemble of computer models of the global atmosphere, to compare the climates produced in idealized model setups, and to identify those mechanisms that are robust across a range of simplifications. This research effort will have major impacts in two realms: our understanding of tropical dynamics and our design of model hierarchies. Progress on both fronts is necessary if we want to better our models and improve our prediction of future climate change in the tropics and globally. The effort will support continuous and focused leadership of a community effort to spur innovative research on the dynamics of monsoons and oceanic rain belts. The design and coordination of the ensemble simulations at the base of this project will continue through the organization of sessions and informal meetings at international conferences in which participants to this Grand Challenge can exchange results and plan additional research activities. One post-doctoral scientist, one graduate student and three undergraduates will be trained by this project and benefit from the interactions with the larger community that has gathered around these themes. Knowledge gained from this project will be incorporated in lectures and outreach activities, including the Lamont Open House and adult education at the American Natural History Museum. Results will also be reported via the State of the Planet Blog of the Earth Institute of Columbia University.