Coastal SEES: Coastal fog-mediated interactions between climate change, upwelling, and coast redwood resilience: Projecting vulnerabilities and the human response

东部边界流中的沿海上升流驱动着地球上一些最具生产力和生物多样性的海洋生态系统。虽然上升流对海洋生态系统的贡献是众所周知的，但上升流对沿海陆地生态系统的关键影响却没有得到充分认识。这项研究的主要假设是，在沿海雾的影响下，海洋-大气-陆地的相互作用导致上升流驱动地球上最多产的陆地生态系统之一--海岸红杉森林。这项研究进一步假设，了解气候变化对这种标志性物种的影响可以影响人们对气候变化的看法。由于检测到沿海雾的减少可能与人为气候变化和不断扩大的城市热岛有关，海岸红杉未来的复原力现在令人严重关切。然而，这一沿海海洋-大气-陆地系统却相对较少受到关注。这在很大程度上是因为，直到最近，地球系统模型还不能模拟连接各组成部分系统的沿海雾，从而难以解释历史观测结果或预测气候变化对这些综合系统的影响。此外，基本的生态测量因雾的存在而变得模糊，因此很难理解海岸红杉将如何应对雾的变化。了解这一沿海海洋-大气-陆地系统不仅将为海岸红杉的复原力提供急需的信息，还将为未来研究沿海陆地、河岸和潮间带生态系统以及受人类影响的部门(包括灌溉农业、野火管理、公共卫生、空中和地面交通、旅游以及城市能源和水消耗)的关键雾化脆弱性奠定基础。在这个项目中，一个跨学科的团队将利用区域海洋-大气-陆地模拟和激光光谱技术的最新进展，对这个沿海综合自然-人类系统进行前所未有的探索。扩大该项目影响的活动包括与土地管理人员和解译人员的接触，模拟和公众接触之间的互动，参与气候变化纪录片，媒体接触，以及西班牙裔服务机构本科生和两名博士后学者的跨学科培训。该项目的结果将是(1)对沿海雾引起的海洋-大气环流和海岸红杉生态生理学之间的相互作用的过程水平的了解，(2)在全球温室气体强迫和当地城市热岛的人为情景下对雾、海岸红杉弹性和上升流的预测，以及对这种强迫的海洋-大气-陆地反馈，以及(3)了解这种标志性沿海物种预计的脆弱性如何影响人类对气候变化和气候友好行为的看法。该项目将侧重于与整个团队具有基本联系的三项活动：(1)美国太平洋海岸对海洋和大气环流的模拟将用于了解上升流的时间和强度如何与大气和沿海陆地系统相互作用，以产生和维持沿海雾(Samelson，Skyllingstad，de Szoeke，俄勒冈州立大学；O‘Brien，劳伦斯·伯克利国家实验室)。(2)激光光谱仪测量海岸红杉森林大气中的羰基硫化物将提供在雾存在时测量初级生产力和生理调节的独特能力(加州大学默塞德分校坎贝尔；卡内基研究所贝里；加州大学伯克利分校道森；加州大学洛杉矶分校赛伯特)。由此产生的生态信息将被用来开发在当前和预计的雾制度下的海岸红杉生理的区域模拟。(3)对海岸红杉恢复力的新的科学理解将构成测量人类态度、知识、价值观、地点联系以及与海岸红杉有关的当前气候相关行为的调查的基础(斯坦福大学Ardoin)。这些调查数据，以及正在进行的研究的生态数据，将为基于人们当前的地点关系、理解和现有行为的教育干预奠定基础。

Coastal upwelling in eastern boundary currents drives some of the Earth's most productive and biodiverse marine ecosystems. While the contributions of upwelling to marine ecosystems are well-recognized, critical implications of upwelling for coastal terrestrial ecosystems are not. The main hypothesis of this study is that ocean-atmosphere-land interactions, mediated by coastal fog, cause upwelling to drive one of the Earth's most productive terrestrial ecosystems, coast redwood forests. The study further hypothesizes that learning about climate change impacts to this iconic species can influence perceptions of climate change. The future resilience of coast redwoods is now of critical concern due to the detection of a decline in coastal fog that may be associated with anthropogenic climate change and expanding urban heat islands. However, this coastal ocean-atmosphere-land system has received relatively little attention. This is largely due to the fact that until recently, earth system models were not capable of simulating the coastal fog that links the component systems, making it difficult to interpret historical observations or to project climate change impacts on these integrated systems. Furthermore, fundamental ecological measurements are obscured by the presence of fog, making it very difficult to understand how coast redwoods will respond to changes in fog. Understanding this coastal ocean-atmosphere-land system will not only provide much needed information for coast redwood resilience, but will also establish a foundation for future work on critical fog-mediated vulnerabilities to a range of coastal terrestrial, riparian, and intertidal ecosystems, and human-affected sectors including irrigated agriculture, wildfire management, public health, air and ground traffic, tourism, and urban energy and water consumption.In this project, an interdisciplinary team will leverage recent advances in regional ocean-atmosphere-land modeling and laser spectrometry to provide an unprecedented exploration of this coastal integrated natural-human system. Activities to broaden the impacts of the project include outreach to land managers and interpreters, interactions between modeling and public outreach, participation in a climate change documentary, media outreach, and interdisciplinary training of Hispanic Serving Institution undergraduates and two postdoctoral scholars.The results of this project will be (1) a process-level understanding of the coastal fog-mediated interactions between ocean-atmosphere circulation and coast redwood ecophysiology, (2) projections of fog, coast redwood resilience, and upwelling under anthropogenic scenarios of global greenhouse gas forcing and local urban heat islands along with the ocean-atmosphere-land feedbacks to this forcing, and (3) an understanding of how the projected vulnerabilities of this iconic coastal species can influence human perceptions about climate change and climate-friendly behaviors. The project will focus on three activities with essential linkages across the team: (1) U.S. Pacific Coast simulations of ocean and atmospheric circulation will be used to understand how the timing and strength of upwelling interacts with the atmosphere and coastal land systems to produce and maintain coastal fog (Samelson, Skyllingstad, de Szoeke, Oregon State Univ.; O'Brien, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory). (2) Laser spectrometer measurements of atmospheric carbonyl sulfide in coast redwood forests will provide the unique capability of measuring primary productivity and physiological regulation in the presence of fog (Campbell, UC Merced; Berry, Carnegie Institution; Dawson, UC Berkeley; Seibt, UCLA). The resulting ecological information will be used to develop regional simulations of coast redwood physiology under current and projected fog regimes. (3) The new scientific understanding of coast redwood resilience will form the foundation of surveys measuring human attitudes, knowledge, values, place connections, and current climate-related behaviors with regard to coast redwoods (Ardoin, Stanford Univ.). These survey data, along with the ecological data from ongoing research, will create a foundation for educational interventions that build on people's current place relationships, understandings, and existing behaviors.