Improving MAGagnetogram (MAG4) Forecasting of Severe Space Weather Drivers by Measuring Magnetic Nonpotentiality of Active Regions Using HMI/SDO Vector Magnetograms

改进对空间气象驱动因素的预测具有广泛的社会影响。鉴于人类对卫星的依赖性不断增加，而卫星可能受到太阳耀斑和日冕物质抛射造成的严重空间天气的危害，这项研究具有高度重要性和优先性，而且十分紧迫。其他更广泛的影响包括提高了地磁风暴警报的准确性，电网和变压器，卫星和太空中的人类。这个为期三年的项目的重点是确定驱动太阳爆炸事件的磁参数。太阳耀斑和日冕物质抛射（CME）是空间天气的主要驱动力。预测其发生概率和相对强度对于保护地球空间环境中的国家资产至关重要。耀斑和日冕物质抛射都是储存在日冕磁场中的能量爆炸性释放的结果。释放的自由磁能是超过源极有源区（AR）的潜在磁场配置的能量。AR的非势能性可以从各种扭曲参数、自由能代理和尺寸参数中推断出来，其中大多数需要矢量磁图（磁场的所有三个分量）进行测量。该团队将使用HMI矢量磁图来测量源AR的各种非潜在参数，并使用他们以前开发的方法确定参数或参数组合，以进行最佳预测。SDO/HMI矢量磁图的整合是对目前使用SOHO/MDI的MAG 4预测能力的改进。此外，该项目还将把活动区CME的历史记录添加到现有的太阳耀斑数据库中，并试图找出CME速度/宽度与磁参数之间的关系。

Improving the forecasts of the drivers of space weather has broad social impact. Given the continuously increasing dependency of humanity on satellites, which can be endangered by severe space weather caused by solar flares and CMEs, this research is of high importance and priority and is urgent. Additional broader impact includes the improved accuracy in the alert for geomagnetic storms causing damages to e.g., power grids and transformers, satellites and humans in space.This three year project is focused on identifying the magnetic parameters that drive solar explosive events. Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the primary drivers of space weather. Forecasts of their probability of occurrence and relative magnitude, are critical for the protection of national assets in the geospace environment. Both flares and CMEs are the results of explosive release of energy stored in the coronal magnetic field. The free magnetic energy released is energy in excess of the potential magnetic field configuration of the source active region (AR). The nonpotentiality of ARs can be inferred from various twist parameters, free-energy proxies and size parameters, most of which require vector magnetograms (all three components of magnetic field) for their measurement. The team will use HMI vector magnetograms to measure various nonpotentiality parameters of source ARs and determine the parameter or combination of them for best forecasting using a method they have previously developed. The integration of SDO/HMI vector magnetograms is an improvement on the forecasting capability of MAG4 which currently uses SOHO/MDI. Additionally, the project will add active region CME histories into the existing solar flare database and try to find out relationship between the CME speed/width and the magnetic parameters.