Understanding Forced Asian Monsoon Changes in Observations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) Models

了解观测中的强迫亚洲季风变化和耦合模型比对项目 - 第 5 阶段 (CMIP5) 模型

• 批准号: 1607348
• 负责人: Mingfang Ting
• 金额: $ 60.29万
• 依托单位: Columbia University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2016-11-01 至 2022-10-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1607348&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Understanding; Forced; Asian; Monsoon; Changes

The Asian monsoon covers a region including India, Southeast Asia, and much of China, and is the primary source of water for a large portion of the world's population. The region also produces a large share of the anthropogenic aerosols worldwide, and several studies have suggested that aerosols, in combination with greenhouse gases and human land use and land cover (LULC) change, have a significant effect on Asian monsoon rainfall. The objective of this study is to determine the Asian monsoon response to anthropogenic forcing through the analysis of observations as well as model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5). The work includes an examination of model simulations, including simulations forced by individual anthropogenic factors (for instance only aerosols or only greenhouse gas increases), to determine the relative contributions of the different human drivers of monsoon change. Further work includes simulations with two atmospheric general circulation models to test the monsoon rainfall response to factors including LULC change, and to identify the separate effect of remote sea surface temperature variations.The work has broader impacts due to the large societal impact of changes in monsoon rainfall, particularly given studies which suggest that the region could experience a substantial reduction in agricultural production by 2050 due to climate change. Work conducted here seeks to identify the underlying physical mechanisms which lead to monsoon change, and determine whether monsoon change occurring in model simulations is consistent with observational evidence. The work thus seeks to provide better guidance on likely changes in monsoon rainfall over the 21st century.

亚洲季风覆盖了包括印度、东南亚和中国大部分地区在内的地区，是世界上很大一部分人口的主要水源。该地区还产生了世界范围内大部分人为气溶胶，一些研究表明，气溶胶与温室气体和人类土地利用和土地覆盖（LULC）变化相结合，对亚洲季风降雨有重大影响。本研究的目的是通过对观测资料的分析以及来自耦合模式比对项目第5版（CMIP5）的模式模拟，确定亚洲季风对人为强迫的响应。这项工作包括对模式模拟的检查，包括由个别人为因素（例如，只有气溶胶或只有温室气体增加）强迫的模拟，以确定不同的人为驱动因素对季风变化的相对贡献。进一步的工作包括用两种大气环流模式进行模拟，以测试季风降雨对包括LULC变化在内的因素的响应，并确定远程海面温度变化的单独影响。由于季风降雨变化的巨大社会影响，这项工作具有更广泛的影响，特别是考虑到研究表明，由于气候变化，到2050年该地区的农业生产可能会大幅减少。这里进行的工作旨在确定导致季风变化的潜在物理机制，并确定模式模拟中发生的季风变化是否与观测证据一致。因此，这项工作旨在为21世纪季风降雨的可能变化提供更好的指导。