EAR-PF: Combining Proxy Records and Model Data to Investigate Changing Flood Risks for the U.S. Atlantic Coast during the Past Millennium

Andra J. Garner博士已获得NSF博士后奖学金，在罗格斯大学开展研究和教育计划。这项调查将集中研究洪水事件在过去的千年在纽约市（纽约市）周围地区。该项目有两个目标：（1）评估计算机模型的有效性，该模型模拟了沿着美国大西洋海岸的风暴潮高度;（2）研究美国大西洋海岸在过去一千年中不断变化的沿海洪水风险。第一个目标将通过比较洪水事件和相对海平面上升的代理记录从沿着美国大西洋海岸与合成热带气旋和风暴潮数据集来自耦合模式相互比较项目第5阶段（CMIP 5）上千年模拟。为了实现第二个目标，里德博士将从新泽西州的联合海滩收集沉积物岩心，为该地区建立一个新的海平面代理记录。该研究金的结果将为高风险地区的沿海适应战略提供信息，提供预测和减轻洪水影响的方法。与这项工作有关的外联活动将与罗格斯大学的拉里坦河倡议合作开展，并将包括在当地高中和本科课程的课程计划中使用该项目的数据。洪水高度的计算机模拟模型在共同时代将进行比较代理检查模型结果和沉积物记录之间的不一致，并探讨这些不一致的可能原因，如模型强迫，模型偏差和内部变异。新的沉积物岩心将用于调查纽约市在过去一千年中极端洪水事件的重现期，以及小冰期后期热带气旋登陆该区域频率增加的潜在原因。

Dr. Andra J. Garner has been granted an NSF EAR Postdoctoral Fellowship to carry out research and education plans at Rutgers University. This investigation will focus on studying flooding events during the last millennium in the area around New York City (NYC). The project has two objectives: (1) to assess the effectiveness of a computer model that simulates storm surge heights along the U.S. Atlantic coast; and (2) to examine changing coastal flood risks for the U.S. Atlantic coast over the past millennium. The first objective will be accomplished by comparing proxy records of flooding events and relative sea level rise from along the U.S. Atlantic coast with synthetic tropical cyclones and storm surge datasets derived from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Last Millennium simulations. To accomplish the second objective, Dr. Reed will collect a sediment core from Union Beach, NJ, to develop a new proxy record of sea level for the region. Results from this fellowship will inform coastal adaptation strategies in high risk regions, providing methods for predicting and mitigating the effects of floods. Outreach activities associated with this work will be carried out in partnership with Rutgers' Raritan River initiative and will consist of using data from the project in lesson plans for local high school and undergraduate classes. Computer simulations models of flood heights during the Common Era will be compared to proxies to examine inconsistencies between model results and sediment records and explore possible reasons for these inconsistencies, such as model forcings, model biases, and internal variability. The new sediment core will be used to investigate return periods during the past millennium of extreme flooding events in New York City and the potential causes of an increased frequency of tropical cyclone landfalls in the region during the latter portion of the Little Ice Age.