The Distributional Impact of Price Changes over the Business Cycle

价格变化对经济周期的分配影响

• 批准号: 1628879
• 负责人: Javier Cravino
• 金额: $ 43.35万
• 依托单位: National Bureau of Economic Research Inc
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2016-08-01 至 2020-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1628879&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Distributional; Impact; Price; Changes; over

The PIs plan to use data on retail prices and consumer expenditures to evaluate how retail prices change in response to business cycle shocks. They seek to determine whether or not goods that are consumed in large quantities by low-income households respond in a different way than goods consumed primarily by high-income households. We know from previous research that the composition of a household's consumption varies with income. In other words, we know that poor households consume more of some goods, while higher income households consume more of so-called 'luxury' goods. Understanding how prices of these goods change with macroeconomic shocks is important. If goods consumed by low income households become relatively more expensive under inflation, then inflation increases inequality; high income households see a smaller relative increase in the prices of the goods they buy. The results of this research are important for understanding the causes of inequality. They are also important for monetary policymakers; the results will help clarify the distributional effects of monetary policy and also help to explain how a monetary shock passes through a closed economy. The PIs will also train graduate students in the necessary data analysis methods through work as research assistants.The PIs study these distributional consequences over the business cycle by using barcode level retail price data and consumer expenditure data. The first part studies the distributional implications of large exchange rate devaluations using price and consumer expenditure data from Mexico. This part of the project cannot be completed with U.S. data because the dollar has not seen large and unexpected devaluations. This work is relevant for understanding the effects of policies like Grexit and Brexit that carry significant implications for exchange rates. The second part of the project uses barcode level data from the US to study relative price dynamics over the business cycle and their differential impact across households of different incomes. In particular, the PIs will consider whether the relative prices of items consumed disproportionately by the poor increase during economic downturns and whether the poor consume goods whose prices are less sticky and are therefore more sensitive to monetary policy.

PI计划使用零售价格和消费者支出数据来评估零售价格如何应对商业周期冲击。他们试图确定低收入家庭大量消费的商品与主要由高收入家庭消费的商品是否以不同的方式做出反应。我们从以前的研究中知道，家庭消费的构成随收入而变化。换句话说，我们知道贫困家庭消费更多的商品，而高收入家庭消费更多的所谓“奢侈品”。了解这些商品的价格如何随着宏观经济冲击而变化很重要。如果低收入家庭消费的商品在通货膨胀下变得相对更贵，那么通货膨胀会增加不平等;高收入家庭看到他们购买的商品价格相对上涨较小。这项研究的结果对于了解不平等的原因非常重要。它们对货币政策制定者也很重要;结果将有助于澄清货币政策的分配效应，也有助于解释货币冲击如何通过封闭经济体。研究员还将通过研究助理的工作，对研究生进行必要的数据分析方法培训。研究员利用条形码层面的零售价格数据和消费者支出数据，研究这些分布在商业周期中的后果。第一部分利用墨西哥的价格和消费支出数据研究汇率大幅贬值对分配的影响。这个项目的这一部分不能用美国的数据来完成，因为美元还没有出现大规模和意想不到的贬值。这项工作是相关的了解政策的影响，如Greetion和Brexit进行重大影响汇率。该项目的第二部分使用来自美国的条形码水平数据，研究商业周期中的相对价格动态及其对不同收入家庭的差异影响。特别是，PI将考虑在经济衰退期间穷人消费的物品的相对价格是否不成比例地上涨，以及穷人是否消费价格粘性较小的商品，因此对货币政策更加敏感。