Collaborative Research: Trade and Informality in the Presence of Labor Market Frictions

贸易自由化如何影响当地人的劳动力市场？最近对1990年代巴西贸易自由化进行的研究表明，受自由化冲击较大的地区在中期面临失业率大幅上升和非正式程度较低的情况。然而，从长远来看，受贸易自由化打击较大的地区的非正规程度显著增加，但失业率没有显著增加。巴西的这一经历与传统贸易模式不一致，传统贸易模式通常预测贸易自由化后非正式性会减少。因此，该项目将通过开发一种以异质公司、非正式和劳动力市场摩擦为特征的新贸易模式来调查贸易和非正式。最终，该项目将提高公众对贸易和非正规部门的了解，并进一步为有关发展中和新兴市场经济体的政策制定提供信息。为了更好地理解贸易导致这种重新分配的机制及其对福利的影响，该项目将开发一个在存在劳动力市场摩擦的情况下贸易和劳动力市场非正规性的模型。在该模型中，异质企业内生地选择他们希望在哪个部门运营(正式或非正式)，而正式企业决定他们希望正式和非正式雇用的工人的比例。正式和非正式劳动力市场的摩擦各不相同。该模型将通过使用多个微观数据来源进行估计。调查人员将使用估计的模型来解决以下重要问题：(1)非正规部门在多大程度上促进了由于贸易自由化而从正规部门失业的工人的劳动力市场结果；(2)针对非正规部门的政策(监测和监管执行、工资税、税收等)如何与贸易自由化相互作用；(3)非正规部门的存在和针对该部门的政策如何影响贸易的福利后果；(4)正式劳动力市场的放松管制如何影响贸易自由化的力度。

How does trade liberalization affect the labor market of natives? Recent research exploring the Brazilian trade liberalization of the 1990s shows that regions that were hit harder by the liberalization episode faced a strong increase in unemployment and a less accentuated increase in informality in the medium run. In the longer run, however, regions that were hit harder by trade liberalization experienced a strong increase in informality, but no significant increase in unemployment. This experience in Brazil is inconsistent with traditional trade models which typically predict a decrease in informality after a trade liberalization. This project will therefore investigate trade and informality by developing a novel model of trade featuring heterogeneous firms, informality, and labor market frictions. Ultimately, this project will improve public understanding of trade and the informal sector, and further inform policy-making about developing and emerging market economies. Aiming to better understand the mechanisms through which trade induced this reallocation and its consequences for welfare, this project will develop a model of trade and labor market informality in the presence of labor market frictions. In the model, heterogeneous firms endogenously choose in what sector they wish to operate (formal or informal) and formal firms decide what fraction of workers they wish to hire formally and informally. Labor market frictions vary across formal and informal labor markets. The model will be estimated by employing multiple sources of micro data. The investigators will use the estimated model to address the following important questions: (1) To what extent does the informal sector smooth labor market outcomes of workers displaced from the formal sector due to trade liberalization; (2) How do policies directed toward the informal sector (monitoring and regulation enforcement, payroll taxes, revenue taxes, etc) interact with trade liberalization; (3) How are the welfare consequences of trade affected by the presence of the informal sector and by policies directed towards this sector; (4) How can deregulation of the formal labor market affect the dynamics of trade liberalization.