Decision Entropy: A New Theory for Representing Uncertainty in Managing Natural Hazard Risks

这项研究的目标是开发一种新的理论基础，以合理和可防御的方式管理来自造成重大后果的罕见自然灾害的风险。如果成功，这项研究将通过优化公共和私人资源在减轻或接受自然灾害风险方面的投入，使社会受益。此外，它还有可能改善从医学到经济再到公共政策等广泛领域的决策。它将提高人们对不确定性以及危险和倾向的认识，认为我们在做出决策时知道的比实际情况更多，这将提高小学生的批判性思维和决策技能，并培养对工程机会的兴奋这项研究将发展一个理论基础，决策熵理论，以理性和可防御地管理造成重大后果的罕见自然灾害的风险。决策熵理论是由首席调查者发展起来的一种新理论，它建立了一个客观的(非信息性)起点，用于在决策的背景下评估概率。这个起点是通过最大化决策的熵来获得的，该决策的熵是关于可能的决策结果定义的。将解决以下目标：1.最终确定该理论的公理描述。这些数学公理通过贝叶斯定理建立了用于基于任何和所有可用信息(客观和主观)来评估概率的起点(样本空间)。为一组简化的风险管理问题提供解析或无量纲的数值解决方案。发展数值手段，在更复杂、更现实的风险管理问题上实施理论。将决策熵理论整合到自然灾害工程研究基础设施(NHERI)网络基础设施DesignSafe-ci.org中，以支持数据分析、关键数据需求的评估和风险管理决策。将这一理论应用于真实世界的案例，以展示其在管理自然灾害风险方面的使用和理解。制作简单的游戏和练习，向公众解释和交流这一理论。对小学生进行批判性思维、风险和决策方面的教育。该项目将是一个合作项目，由德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校的两个工程系--挪威岩土研究所和挪威国家工程研究所--组成。这项研究是一项高风险、高回报的努力。几个世纪以来，各种非常杰出的理论家，包括伯努利、凯恩斯、杰恩斯和拉法，都试图解决这个问题，但没有成功。这项研究有可能在不确定情况下的知识和决策方面取得革命性的进展。首先，它表明评估概率的起点取决于将使用这些概率的决定，这意味着概率不是一个绝对的概念，而是一个相对的概念。采用这种相对论的观点，为表现不确定性和管理风险提供了洞察力，这些不确定性和风险管理发人深省，但并不总是直观的，在某些情况下令人欣慰，但在另一些情况下令人不安。其次，这项研究将为简化的风险管理决策问题提供解析或无量纲的数值解。这些解决方案将为理论的应用提供一般性的见解和实际的手段。第三，本研究将提出在现实的多维决策问题中最大化“决策熵”的创新数值方法。最后，这项研究将被整合到NHERI CyberInfrastructure DesignSafe-ci.org门户网站中，以便用户能够将其与真实数据一起应用于管理自然灾害风险的实际问题。

The goal of this research is to develop a new theoretical basis to rationally and defensibly manage risks from rare natural hazards that cause large consequences. If successful, this research will benefit society by optimizing how public and private resources are invested in mitigating or accepting risks from natural hazards. In addition, it has the potential to improve decision making in a wide variety of fields from medicine to economics to public policy. It will increase awareness about uncertainty and the dangers and tendencies to think we know more than we really do in making decisions, it will improve critical thinking and decision skills in primary school students and foster excitement about opportunities in engineering This research will develop a theoretical basis, Decision Entropy Theory, to rationally and defensibly manage risks from rare natural hazards that cause large consequences. Decision Entropy Theory is a new theory developed by the Principal Investigators to establish an objective (non-informative) starting point for assessing probabilities in the context of making decisions. This starting point is obtained by maximizing the entropy of the decision, which is defined concerning the possible decision outcomes. The following objectives will be addressed:1. Finalize axiomatic descriptions of the theory. These mathematical axioms establish the starting point (sample space) used to assess probabilities based on any and all available information (objective and subjective) through Bayes' Theorem.2. Produce analytical or non-dimensional numerical solutions for a set of simplified risk management problems.3. Develop numerical means to implement the theory on more complicated and realistic risk management problems.4. Integrate Decision Entropy Theory into the Natural Hazards Engineering Research Infrastructure (NHERI) Cyberinfrastructure DesignSafe-ci.org to support the analysis of data, the valuation of critical data needs and risk-management decision making.5. Apply the theory to real-world case histories to demonstrate its use and the understanding it provides in managing risks for natural hazards.6. Create simple games and exercises to illustrate and communicate the theory to the public.7. Conduct outreach to primary schools to educate students about critical thinking, risk and decision making.This project will be a collaborative effort comprising two departments in engineering at The University of Texas at Austin, the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute and NHERI. This research is a high risk, high reward endeavor. For centuries, a variety of extremely distinguished theoreticians, including Bernoulli, Keynes, Jaynes, and Raiffa, have unsuccessfully attempted to address this problem. This research has the potential to make a transformative advancement in knowledge and decision-making under uncertainty. First, it suggests that the starting point in assessing probabilities depends on the decision in which these probabilities will be used, meaning that probability is not an absolute but a relative concept. Adopting this perspective of relativity provides insights in representing uncertainty and managing risk that are thought-provoking, not always intuitive, and comforting in some cases but disconcerting in others. Second, this research will produce analytical or non-dimensional numerical solutions for simplified risk-management decision problems. These solutions will provide both general insights and practical means for applying the theory. Third, this research will advance innovative numerical methods to maximize "decision entropy" in realistic, multi-dimensional decision problems. Finally, this research will be integrated into the NHERI Cyberinfrastructure DesignSafe-ci.org web portal so that users will be able to apply it with real data to practical problems of managing risks from natural hazards.