PREEVENTS: Workshop on Integrated Framework for Modeling and Prediction of Extreme Events; College Park, Maryland; Summer 2016

PREEVENTS：预测极端空间天气的不确定性量化研讨会该项目将组织一个为期三天的研讨会，并为其提供旅行支持，该研讨会旨在了解空间天气中的极端事件。当许多条件加强干扰时，例如地球空间风暴和亚风暴，就会出现事件的极端性质。这些条件的识别和表征对于不确定性的量化以及建模和预测的改进至关重要。研讨会将汇集地球空间建模和模拟方面的专家，利用数据驱动和第一性原理方法探讨空间天气建模和预测中的常见问题。一个主要目标将是确定制定不确定性量化综合框架所需的条件，该框架将利用这两种方法的进展来加速研究，以改进空间天气预报。这是一个重要的下一步，很可能导致发展未来能力的创新和协同方法。讲习班的一项重要成果将是一份关于极端空间天气事件和相关自然灾害的建模和预测的现状和未来前景的综合报告。研讨会为扩大博士后、研究生和本科生的教育和建立网络提供了难得的宝贵机会。讲习班将促进灾害科学多学科共同体的发展，这对于加快制定极端事件预测和缓解框架至关重要。了解罕见事件及其变率的统计对空间天气预报的不确定性量化至关重要，极端事件数据的缺乏需要开发新技术。极端事件背后的不同多物理过程之间的非线性耦合，以及对潜在过程本身的不完全了解，是第一原理模型不确定性的主要来源之一。改善极端空间天气预报的一个重要步骤是不确定性量化，这本质上是跨学科的，需要学科研究人员、计算科学家、建模师和统计学家的综合努力。讲习班提供了一个论坛，以确定和探索预测空间天气极端事件的重要协同作用，其结果可以影响极端事件的一般预测。

PREEVENTS: Workshop on Uncertainty Quantification in Forecasting Extreme Space WeatherThe project is to organize and provide travel support for a three-day workshop that targets the understanding of extreme events in space weather. The extreme nature of events arises when many conditions reinforce disturbances, such as geospace storms and substorms. The identification and characterization of these conditions are essential to uncertainty quantification and to improvements in modeling and prediction. The workshop will bring together experts in geospace modeling and simulation to explore common issues in the modeling and prediction of space weather using data-driven and first-principles approaches. A primary objective will be the identification of what is needed for the development of an integrated framework for uncertainty quantification that leverages advances in the two approaches to accelerate research to improve space weather forecasting. This is an important next step that will most likely lead to innovative and synergistic approaches to developing future capabilities. An important output of the workshop will be a comprehensive report on the current state of, and future outlook for, modeling and prediction of extreme space weather events and the associated natural hazards. The workshop provides a rare and valuable opportunity to broaden the education of postdocs, graduate and undergraduate students and enable networking. The workshop will contribute to the development of a multi-disciplinary community for disaster science, which is critical to accelerate the development of a framework for extreme event prediction and mitigation.The understanding of the statistics of rare events and their variability is critical to uncertainty quantification in space weather forecasting, and the paucity of data of extreme events requires development of new techniques. The nonlinear coupling among the different multiphysical processes underlying extreme events, and the incomplete knowledge of the underlying processes themselves, are among the main sources of uncertainty in first principles models. An essential step to improving forecasts of extreme space weather is uncertainty quantification, which is inherently interdisciplinary, requiring a comprehensive effort that brings together disciplinary researchers, computational scientists, modelers, and statisticians. The workshop provides a forum for identifying and exploring important synergisms in forecasting extreme events in space weather and its outcomes can impact extreme events forecasting in general.