Space Weather: Spatio-Temporal Dynamics During Strong Solar Wind - Magnetosphere Coupling

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The main solar wind features that drive magnetic storms are the dynamic pressure and the induced electric field. In the magnetosphere, plasma convection and magnetic substorms are the dominant processes that influence the ring current. This project will use the observational data from multi-spacecraft and multi-station ground-based measurements to study the different factors that lead to the extreme conditions in the magnetosphere. The techniques of reconstruction of dynamics from time series data will be used to build models of magnetospheric dynamics, and in particular the ring current build-up and decay. Global storm features can be predicted using data-derived models. Multi-scale features can be predicted only in the statistical sense, but the statistical variations can be used to place limits on predictability of storms. The primary task for the project will be a study of the spatial structure of the storm time disturbances, the global and multi-scale features of storms and their predictability, and the relative role of solar wind variables (electric field, dynamic pressure, density, etc.) as drivers of extreme conditions. The stressed magnetic field in the Earth's magnetotail is one of the most important forms of stored energy and its contribution to space weather hazards will be studied using multi-spacecraft data of the lobe field, polar cap size and related variables. An important feature of the dynamical techniques that will be used is their ability to determine the causal relationship between the solar wind and magnetospheric variables. These causal relationships will be used to identify the key solar wind variables responsible for the extreme conditions in the magnetosphere.