Collaborative Research: MSB-FRA: Alternative futures for the American Residential Macrosystem

城市景观变化的一个明显但未经检验的结果是城市的同质化，例如，全国不同地区的社区在道路系统、住宅地段、商业场所和水域中越来越多地表现出相似的模式；现在，城市之间变得更加相似，而不是与它们所取代的原生生态系统相似。这项研究建立在团队的基础上？美国国家科学基金会之前资助了关于？生态均化?的？美国住宅宏观系统（ARM）？并专门研究影响ARM稳定性和/或变化的因素。目的是确定影响变化的因素是怎样的？比如人口结构的变化，对生物多样性和水资源保护的需求，管理用水和水质的法规，以及生物的扩散？将与有助于稳定的因素相互作用，如社会规范、财产价值、邻里和城市契约和法律，以及商业利益。该项目将确定ARM的不同未来对生态群落、生态系统功能以及对包裹（生态系统）、景观（城市）、区域（都市统计区）和大陆尺度的环境变化和干扰的响应的生态影响。五种类型的住宅地块以及嵌入式半自然间隙生态系统将被研究，横跨六个美国城市(波士顿，巴尔的摩，迈阿密，明尼阿波利斯-圣。保罗，菲尼克斯和洛杉矶)。教育和推广工作将侧重于K-12教师和学生，以及与市、县和州环境管理者的合作政策努力。这个项目调查城市化？从植物多样性、土壤碳氮循环库和过程、小气候、水文和土地覆盖等方面分析美国住宅大系统（ARM）生态同质化的影响。这种生态特征的相似性是由复杂和动态的人类活动在多个尺度上驱动的。、包裹、社区和地区？这将在50至100年的时间框架内塑造ARM的结构和功能，对生态过程和环境质量可能产生重大的大陆规模影响。这项研究解决了两个核心问题。首先，是什么因素导致了ARM的维护和变化？虽然这个宏观系统是一个由草坪、灌木、树木和不透水表面组成的相对同质的混合物，但迫切需要确定诸如人口和种族变化、对生物多样性和水资源保护日益增长的需求以及管理用水和水质的法规等变化驱动因素如何与社会规范、财产价值、邻里和城市契约和法律以及商业利益等稳定因素相互作用。研究人员将验证这样一个假设：尽管从自然和间隙区扩散，气候变化和房主知识的变化将促进生态变化；制度、规范和价值观将在这些生态动态中发挥制衡和稳定力量的作用。这一假设将通过在多个尺度上评估激励变化和稳定的因素来检验。结果将用于在ARM中产生未来土地利用模式的定量、基于数据的情景。其次，这一宏观系统在地块（生态系统）、景观（城市）、区域（都市统计区）和大陆尺度上的群落聚集和生态系统功能的替代未来的生态含义是什么？待验证的假设是，促进营养和水的有效利用以及支持野生动物的植物的管理，以及减少水和养分的投入，将在营养水平上产生更大的区域生物多样性，更高的养分保留，更低的水利用，并减少区域尺度上住宅院子的径流和土壤碳氮损失。在美国的六个城市（波士顿、巴尔的摩、迈阿密、明尼阿波利斯-圣路易斯市），研究了五种不同管理目标和强度的住宅地块，以及嵌入的半自然间隙生态系统。保罗，凤凰城和洛杉矶)，以量化对生态动力学的影响。这些信息将与土地使用情景联系起来，以解决这些影响的区域和大陆范围的影响。本项目将指导三名博士后作为合作研究者。该研究项目还将包括与关注可持续发展的市政决策者的互动，并增加一个新的？专家小组？这是康奈尔大学开发的YardMap公民科学项目。

An apparent, but untested result of changes to the urban landscape is the homogenization of cities, such that neighborhoods in very different parts of the country increasingly exhibit similar patterns in their road systems, residential lots, commercial sites, and aquatic areas; cities have now become more similar to each other than to the native ecosystems that they replaced. This research builds on the team?s prior NSF funded research on the ?ecological homogenization? of the ?American Residential Macrosystem (ARM)? and specifically investigates factors that contribute to stability and/or changes in the ARM. The aim is to determine how factors that effect change?such as shifts in human demographics, desires for biodiversity and water conservation, regulations that govern water use and quality, and dispersal of organisms?will interact with factors that contribute to stability such as social norms, property values, neighborhood and city covenants and laws, and commercial interests. The project will determine ecological implications of alternative futures of the ARM for the assembly of ecological communities, ecosystem function, and responses to environmental change and disturbance at parcel (ecosystem), landscape (city), regional (Metropolitan Statistical Area) and continental scales. Five types of residential parcels as well as embedded semi-natural interstitial ecosystems will be studied, across six U.S. cities (Boston, Baltimore, Miami, Minneapolis-St. Paul, Phoenix, and Los Angeles). Education and outreach work will focus on K-12 teachers and students and on collaborative policy efforts with city, county, and state environmental managers.This project investigates urbanization?s impact on the ecological homogenization of the American Residential Macrosystem (ARM) in terms of plant biodiversity, soil carbon and nitrogen cycle pools and processes, microclimate, hydrography, and land cover. This similarity of ecological characteristics is driven by complex and dynamic human actions at multiple scales?e.g., parcel, neighborhood, and region?that will shape the structure and function of the ARM over 50 to 100 year time frames, with potentially significant continental scale effects on ecological processes and environmental quality. This research addresses two core questions. First, what factors contribute to maintenance and change in the ARM? While this macrosystem is a relatively homogeneous mixture of grass lawns, shrubs, trees and impervious surfaces, there is a critical need to determine how drivers of change such as shifts in human population and ethnicity, increasing desires for biodiversity and water conservation, and regulations governing water use and quality will interact with stabilizing factors such as social norms, property values, neighborhood and city covenants and laws, and commercial interests. Researchers will test the hypothesis that that although dispersal from natural and interstitial areas, climate change, and changes in homeowner knowledge will promote ecological change; institutions, norms and values will function as counteracting, stabilizing forces on these ecological dynamics. This hypothesis will be tested by evaluating the factors that motivate change and stability at multiple scales. Results will be used to produce quantitative, data-based scenarios of future land-use patterns in the ARM. Second, what are the ecological implications of alternative futures of this macrosystem for community assembly and ecosystem function at parcel (ecosystem), landscape (city), regional (Metropolitan Statistical Area), and continental scales? The hypothesis to be tested is that management that promotes nutrient- and water-use efficient and wildlife-supporting plants as well as lower inputs of water and nutrients will give rise to greater regional biodiversity across trophic levels, higher nutrient retention, lower water use, and reduced runoff and losses of soil carbon and nitrogen from residential yards at the regional scale. Five types of residential parcels that vary in management goals and intensity and embedded semi-natural interstitial ecosystems will be studied in six U.S. cities across the U.S. (Boston, Baltimore, Miami, Minneapolis-St. Paul, Phoenix, and Los Angeles), to quantify influences on ecological dynamics. This information will be linked to land use scenarios to address the regional and continental-scale impacts of these effects. Three postdocs will be mentored as co-investigators on this project. The research program will also include interaction with municipal decision makers focused on sustainability and add a new ?Panel of Experts? feature to the YardMap citizen science program developed at Cornell University.