Collaborative Research: MSB-FRA: Alternative futures for the American Residential Macrosystem

城市景观变化的一个明显但未经检验的结果是城市的同质化，以至于美国非常不同地区的社区在道路系统、住宅地块、商业用地和水上区域越来越显示出相似的模式；城市之间现在变得更相似，而不是它们所取代的本地生态系统。这项研究建立在S团队的基础上，该团队先前得到了美国国家科学基金资助的生态同质化研究。美国住宅宏观系统(ARM)？并具体调查有助于手臂稳定和/或变化的因素。其目的是确定影响变化的因素--如人口结构的变化、对生物多样性和水资源保护的渴望、管理用水和水质的法规以及生物的传播--将如何与有助于稳定的因素相互作用，如社会规范、财产价值、社区和城市契约和法律，以及商业利益。该项目将在地块(生态系统)、景观(城市)、区域(大都市统计区域)和大陆尺度上确定ARM替代未来对生态群落集合、生态系统功能以及对环境变化和干扰的反应的生态影响。五种类型的住宅地块以及嵌入的半自然间隙生态系统将在美国六个城市(波士顿、巴尔的摩、迈阿密、明尼阿波利斯-圣彼得堡)进行研究。保罗、菲尼克斯和洛杉矶)。教育和推广工作将集中于K-12年级的教师和学生，以及与市、县和州环境管理人员的合作政策努力。该项目调查城市化？S在植物生物多样性、土壤碳和氮循环池和过程、小气候、水文和土地覆盖等方面对美国住宅大系统(ARM)生态同质化的影响。这种生态特征的相似性是由多个尺度上的复杂和动态的人类行为驱动的--例如，地块、邻里和区域--这些行为将在50到100年的时间框架内塑造ARM的结构和功能，并可能对生态过程和环境质量产生重大的大陆尺度影响。这项研究解决了两个核心问题。第一，是什么因素促成了ARM的维护和变化？虽然这个宏观系统是由草地、灌木、树木和不透水表面组成的相对均匀的混合体，但迫切需要确定变化的驱动因素，如人口和种族的变化，对生物多样性和水资源保护的日益增长的愿望，以及对用水和水质的监管，将如何与社会规范、财产价值、社区和城市契约和法律以及商业利益等稳定因素相互作用。研究人员将检验这一假设，即尽管从自然和间隙地区扩散，气候变化和房主知识的变化将促进生态变化；制度、规范和价值观将在这些生态动态中起到抵消和稳定力量的作用。这一假设将通过评估在多个尺度上推动变化和稳定的因素来检验。结果将被用来为ARM未来的土地利用模式产生基于数据的量化情景。第二，在地块(生态系统)、景观(城市)、区域(大都市统计区域)和大陆尺度上，这一宏观系统对社区集合和生态系统功能的替代未来的生态影响是什么？需要检验的假设是，促进高效利用养分和水分、支持野生动物的植物以及减少水和养分输入的管理将在区域范围内产生更大的营养水平的区域生物多样性，更高的养分保留量，更低的用水量，以及减少径流和居民区庭院土壤碳和氮的损失。将在美国六个城市(波士顿、巴尔的摩、迈阿密、明尼阿波利斯-圣彼得堡)对管理目标和强度不同的五种类型的住宅地块和嵌入的半自然间隙生态系统进行研究。保罗、菲尼克斯和洛杉矶)，以量化对生态动态的影响。这些信息将与土地利用情景相联系，以解决这些影响对区域和大陆范围的影响。三名博士后将作为该项目的联合调查员接受指导。该研究计划还将包括与专注于可持续发展的市政决策者的互动，并增加一个新的专家小组？这是康奈尔大学开发的YardMap公民科学项目的特色。

An apparent, but untested result of changes to the urban landscape is the homogenization of cities, such that neighborhoods in very different parts of the country increasingly exhibit similar patterns in their road systems, residential lots, commercial sites, and aquatic areas; cities have now become more similar to each other than to the native ecosystems that they replaced. This research builds on the team?s prior NSF funded research on the ?ecological homogenization? of the ?American Residential Macrosystem (ARM)? and specifically investigates factors that contribute to stability and/or changes in the ARM. The aim is to determine how factors that effect change?such as shifts in human demographics, desires for biodiversity and water conservation, regulations that govern water use and quality, and dispersal of organisms?will interact with factors that contribute to stability such as social norms, property values, neighborhood and city covenants and laws, and commercial interests. The project will determine ecological implications of alternative futures of the ARM for the assembly of ecological communities, ecosystem function, and responses to environmental change and disturbance at parcel (ecosystem), landscape (city), regional (Metropolitan Statistical Area) and continental scales. Five types of residential parcels as well as embedded semi-natural interstitial ecosystems will be studied, across six U.S. cities (Boston, Baltimore, Miami, Minneapolis-St. Paul, Phoenix, and Los Angeles). Education and outreach work will focus on K-12 teachers and students and on collaborative policy efforts with city, county, and state environmental managers.This project investigates urbanization?s impact on the ecological homogenization of the American Residential Macrosystem (ARM) in terms of plant biodiversity, soil carbon and nitrogen cycle pools and processes, microclimate, hydrography, and land cover. This similarity of ecological characteristics is driven by complex and dynamic human actions at multiple scales?e.g., parcel, neighborhood, and region?that will shape the structure and function of the ARM over 50 to 100 year time frames, with potentially significant continental scale effects on ecological processes and environmental quality. This research addresses two core questions. First, what factors contribute to maintenance and change in the ARM? While this macrosystem is a relatively homogeneous mixture of grass lawns, shrubs, trees and impervious surfaces, there is a critical need to determine how drivers of change such as shifts in human population and ethnicity, increasing desires for biodiversity and water conservation, and regulations governing water use and quality will interact with stabilizing factors such as social norms, property values, neighborhood and city covenants and laws, and commercial interests. Researchers will test the hypothesis that that although dispersal from natural and interstitial areas, climate change, and changes in homeowner knowledge will promote ecological change; institutions, norms and values will function as counteracting, stabilizing forces on these ecological dynamics. This hypothesis will be tested by evaluating the factors that motivate change and stability at multiple scales. Results will be used to produce quantitative, data-based scenarios of future land-use patterns in the ARM. Second, what are the ecological implications of alternative futures of this macrosystem for community assembly and ecosystem function at parcel (ecosystem), landscape (city), regional (Metropolitan Statistical Area), and continental scales? The hypothesis to be tested is that management that promotes nutrient- and water-use efficient and wildlife-supporting plants as well as lower inputs of water and nutrients will give rise to greater regional biodiversity across trophic levels, higher nutrient retention, lower water use, and reduced runoff and losses of soil carbon and nitrogen from residential yards at the regional scale. Five types of residential parcels that vary in management goals and intensity and embedded semi-natural interstitial ecosystems will be studied in six U.S. cities across the U.S. (Boston, Baltimore, Miami, Minneapolis-St. Paul, Phoenix, and Los Angeles), to quantify influences on ecological dynamics. This information will be linked to land use scenarios to address the regional and continental-scale impacts of these effects. Three postdocs will be mentored as co-investigators on this project. The research program will also include interaction with municipal decision makers focused on sustainability and add a new ?Panel of Experts? feature to the YardMap citizen science program developed at Cornell University.