Understanding the Role of the Low-Level Jet in Land-Atmosphere Interactions and Drought over the Southern Great Plains

了解低空急流在陆地-大气相互作用和南部大平原干旱中的作用

• 批准号: 1638936
• 负责人: Craig Ferguson
• 金额: $ 66.69万
• 依托单位: SUNY at Albany
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2017-04-01 至 2022-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1638936&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Understanding; Role; Low; Level; Jet

The role of local land conditions in drought evolution, as a potential agent of local climate self-regulation is poorly understood, as are the multi-scale land-atmosphere interactions involved. This project will improve understanding of drought evolution and its predictability in the southern Great Plains through synergistic efforts in analyzing impacts of low-level jets on local land-atmosphere couplings over the Great Plains and the regulatory role of the ocean on the Great Plains low-level jet. Specifically, this project will examine how local drought conditions may, under different conditions of weather sequencing and large-scale climate variability, serve to trigger rainfall and initiate an eventual recovery from drought. The primary tools for this project include observational data analyses (tabular and composite analyses, probabilistic event characterization, and synoptic and mesoscale analyses of droughts and low-level jet variability) and numerical modeling.The project will yield new knowledge and insights into mechanisms of drought predictability, which can in-turn be used to guide process-level refinement of weather-, seasonal forecast-, and climate models. For the semi-arid southern Great Plains, a pillar of the nation's food and energy security, it is critical that drought and its mechanisms be better understood, particularly in the context of climate variability and change. Every sector of the economy, in addition to public safety and health, benefits from improved forecast skill. Other important project outcomes include the validation of current cloud-resolving models and the training of one graduate student and one postdoctoral researcher in the areas of synoptic-scale and mesoscale meteorology, and coupled modeling.

人们对当地土地条件作为当地气候自我调节的潜在因素在干旱演变中的作用知之甚少，对所涉及的多尺度陆地-大气相互作用也知之甚少。该项目将通过协同努力分析低空急流对大平原上空当地陆-气耦合的影响以及海洋对大平原低空急流的调节作用，提高对大平原南部干旱演变及其可预测性的认识。具体而言，该项目将研究在不同的天气顺序和大规模气候变异条件下，当地干旱条件如何能够触发降雨并启动干旱的最终恢复。该项目的主要工具包括观测数据分析（表格和综合分析、概率事件特征、干旱和低空急流变率的天气学和中尺度分析）和数值模拟，该项目将产生关于干旱可预测性机制的新知识和见解，这些知识和见解又可用于指导天气、季节预报和气候模型的过程级改进。对于作为国家粮食和能源安全支柱的南部半干旱大平原来说，更好地了解干旱及其机制至关重要，特别是在气候多变和变化的背景下。除了公共安全和健康之外，经济的每个部门都受益于预测技能的提高。其他重要的项目成果包括验证当前的云解析模型，培训天气尺度和中尺度气象学领域的一名研究生和一名博士后研究员，以及耦合建模。

项目成果

Diurnal Effects of Regional Soil Moisture Anomalies on the Great Plains Low-Level Jet

• DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-19-0135.1
• 发表时间: 2019-12
• 期刊: Monthly Weather Review
• 影响因子: 3.2
• 作者: Matthew A. Campbell;Craig R. Ferguson;D. Burrows;M. Beauharnois;G. Xia;L. Bosart

Changes in Great Plains Low‐Level Jet Structure and Associated Precipitation Over the 20th Century

• DOI: 10.1029/2021jd035859
• 发表时间: 2022-01
• 期刊: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
• 作者: C. Ferguson

The Effect of Global Warming on Future Water Availability: CMIP5 Synthesis

• DOI: 10.1029/2018wr022792
• 发表时间: 2018-10
• 期刊: Water Resources Research
• 影响因子: 5.4
• 作者: C. Ferguson;M. Pan;T. Oki

Assimilation of Satellite-Derived Soil Moisture for Improved Forecasts of the Great Plains Low-Level Jet

• DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-20-0185.1
• 发表时间: 2020-11
• 期刊: Monthly Weather Review
• 影响因子: 3.2
• 作者: C. Ferguson;S. Agrawal;M. Beauharnois;G. Xia;D. Burrows;L. Bosart

Teleconnections Governing the Interannual Variability of Great Plains Low-Level Jets in May

控制五月大平原低空急流年际变化的遥相关

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0451.1
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Journal of Climate
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: Agrawal, Shubhi;Ferguson, Craig R.;Bosart, Lance;Burrows, D. Alex
• 通讯作者: Burrows, D. Alex