INFEWS/T1: Understanding multi-scale resilience options for vulnerable regions

INFEWS/T1：了解脆弱地区的多尺度复原力选项

• 批准号: 1639214
• 负责人: Benjamin Zaitchik
• 金额: $ 299.9万
• 依托单位: Johns Hopkins University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2016-09-15 至 2022-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1639214&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: INFEWS; T1; Understanding; multi; scale

The world is undergoing an energy revolution. Centralized electricity production and grid connections are multiplying electricity access for cities and industry in emerging economies worldwide, while distributed renewable technologies offer opportunities for communities beyond the grid. These changes are transforming societies and they have diverse impacts on food systems, and ultimately food security, on scales from household to global. At the same time, climate change has the potential to impose both local and global hydrological shocks that affect food and energy systems at multiple levels. Who will benefit from this rapidly changing food, energy, and climate landscape, and who might be left behind? How will technological, investment and policy strategies shape these outcomes? And how might external shocks, arising from global market dynamics and large-scale climate change, alter the course of energy and food security development? The answers to these questions are critical to development in emerging economies and, potentially, to social stability within and beyond their borders. To understand and predict these dynamics, the research team supported by this award will construct a systems-based modeling framework that captures local-scale to national-scale food, energy, and water dynamics in a changing climate. The framework will be implemented for Ethiopia and Mali, two rapidly developing but highly climate vulnerable countries that serve as test cases for a more generalizable analysis system. United States researchers will work with African counterparts and development experts to develop modeling tools and apply them to active and proposed energy and food security initiatives.The ultimate objective of this work is to understand coupled system dynamics across scales in a manner that allows one to quantify the sensitivity of critical human outcomes (nutritional satisfaction, household economic well-being) to development and climate adaptation strategies. The research team will approach this problem with an integrated Multi-scale Energy and Food Systems (MEFS) modeling framework that includes a local "agent-based model" to capture individual behavior and learning; a scalable multi-player "micro-economic partial-equilibrium model" to simulate area-aggregated decisions and outcomes,;and a national computable "general equilibrium model" to simulate large-scale policy dynamics. MEFS couples the three models, which makes it possible to study the role that individual behavior and learning plays in area-aggregated decisions and to quantify the cross-scale impacts of bottom-up and top-down development interventions, such as household-level solar energy versus national energy subsidies. MEFS will provide novel insights on food-energy-water dynamics in the sub-Saharan Africa context, while the novel coupling methods developed for MEFS will advance the science of multi-scale systems modeling for research anywhere. The project also includes a significant educational component in which United States graduate students participate in collaborative research and training with graduate students at multiple African universities.

世界正在经历一场能源革命。集中式电力生产和电网连接正在使全球新兴经济体的城市和工业获得更多的电力，而分布式可再生技术为电网以外的社区提供了机会。这些变化正在改变社会，在从家庭到全球的范围内，对粮食系统以及最终的粮食安全产生了不同的影响。同时，气候变化有可能造成当地和全球的水文冲击，在多个层面上影响粮食和能源系统。谁将从这种快速变化的食物、能源和气候格局中受益，谁可能被甩在后面？技术、投资和政策战略将如何塑造这些结果？全球市场动态和大规模气候变化引发的外部冲击可能如何改变能源和粮食安全发展的进程？这些问题的答案对新兴经济体的发展至关重要，甚至可能对其境内外的社会稳定至关重要。为了了解和预测这些动态，该奖项支持的研究团队将构建一个基于系统的建模框架，以捕捉气候变化中从地方尺度到国家尺度的食物、能源和水的动态。该框架将在埃塞俄比亚和马里实施，这两个快速发展但高度易受气候影响的国家将作为更具普遍性的分析系统的测试案例。美国研究人员将与非洲同行和发展专家合作开发建模工具，并将其应用于积极的和拟议的能源和粮食安全倡议。这项工作的最终目标是了解跨尺度的耦合系统动力学，使人能够量化关键人类成果(营养满意、家庭经济福祉)对发展和气候适应战略的敏感性。研究小组将通过一个集成的多尺度能源和食品系统(MEFS)建模框架来解决这一问题，该框架包括一个用于捕捉个人行为和学习的本地“基于主体的模型”；一个可扩展的多参与者“微观经济局部均衡模型”，用于模拟区域聚合的决策和结果；以及一个国家可计算的“一般均衡模型”，用于模拟大规模政策动态。MEFS将这三个模型结合在一起，这使得有可能研究个人行为和学习在区域聚合决策中所起的作用，并量化自下而上和自上而下的发展干预措施的跨范围影响，例如家庭级太阳能与国家能源补贴。MEFS将为撒哈拉以南非洲地区的粮食-能源-水动态提供新的见解，而为MEFS开发的新的耦合方法将推动多尺度系统建模的科学，以便在任何地方进行研究。该项目还包括一个重要的教育部分，让美国研究生与非洲多所大学的研究生一起参加合作研究和培训。

项目成果

A framework for interdisciplinary research in food systems

食品系统跨学科研究框架

• DOI: 10.1038/s43016-020-00212-6
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Nature Food
• 影响因子: 23.2
• 作者: Grace, Kathryn;Siddiqui, Sauleh;Zaitchik, Benjamin F.
• 通讯作者: Zaitchik, Benjamin F.

Building an interdisciplinary framework to advance conceptual and technical aspects of population-environment research focused on women's and children's health

建立跨学科框架，推进以妇女和儿童健康为重点的人口环境研究的概念和技术方面

• DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.112857
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Social Science & Medicine
• 影响因子: 5.4
• 作者: Grace, Kathryn;Billingsley, Sunnee;Van Riper, David
• 通讯作者: Van Riper, David

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 and 6 representation of peak and end of rainy season over Upper Blue Nile basin

耦合模型比对项目第 5 期和第 6 期代表青尼罗河上游流域雨季高峰和结束情况

• DOI: 10.1002/joc.7736
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: International Journal of Climatology
• 作者: Fetene, Zewdu Alamineh;Zaitchik, Benjamin F.;Zeleke, Tadesse Terefe;Yeshita, Baylie Damtie;Vashisht, Amandeep
• 通讯作者: Vashisht, Amandeep

Livelihood vulnerability to climate variability and change in different agroecological zones of Gurage Administrative Zone, Ethiopia

• DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2019.100035
• 发表时间: 2019-10-01
• 期刊: PROGRESS IN DISASTER SCIENCE
• 影响因子: 6.3
• 作者: Dendir, Zelalem;Simane, Belay
• 通讯作者: Simane, Belay

Agricultural production diversity and child nutrition in Ethiopia

• DOI: 10.1007/s12571-021-01173-9
• 发表时间: 2021-06-05
• 期刊: FOOD SECURITY
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Bakhtsiyarava, Maryia;Grace, Kathryn
• 通讯作者: Grace, Kathryn