EAGER: Reducing Scientific Uncertainty of Storm Trends in Savoonga and Shaktoolik, Alaska with Traditional Knowledge

EAGER：利用传统知识减少阿拉斯加萨文加和沙克图利克风暴趋势的科学不确定性

• 批准号: 1640960
• 负责人: Jon Rosales
• 金额: $ 9.04万
• 依托单位: Saint Lawrence University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2016-06-15 至 2019-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1640960&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: EAGER; Reducing; Scientific; Uncertainty; Storm

While scientists expect storms in the Arctic to get stronger with climate change they still are not all that clear on whether storms have actually become stronger or not. One of the problems these scientists have is a lack of widespread measurements of storm strength. Our project aims to measure storm strength in the Bering Sea area and generate a map showing storm strength over time. To generate these maps, however, we need to know when the storms happened and how far the waves rose on the land. To do this, we will measure old driftwood deposits that were left by past storms. Driftwood deposits are left on the land where the largest waves ended in a storm. To date when the driftwood was left on the shore we will develop a catalogue of Siberian Yupik names from Savoonga and Gambell, two indigenous villages on St. Lawrence Island. In their culture babies have been named after large weather events. If we could find names related to large storm events going back in time we may be able to match them with various driftwood deposits in order to make a map of storm strength over time. If the waves are rising higher on the land over time then we might be able to say that storms are getting stronger with climate change. The opposite may also be true. Climate change scientists continue to have low confidence in their understanding of storm intensity in the Arctic. While it is likely that storm intensity has increased in this region and scientists expect storm intensity to continue to increase with additional climate change, more evidence is needed to decrease the uncertainty of the direction of storm intensity in the Arctic. This project aims to do that. Storm surge, how far waves rise on the land, will be used as a proxy for storm intensity. The height of driftwood deposits will be used as an indicator of a given storm?s intensity. This project aims to date driftwood deposits to show the direction of change in storm intensity over time. Driftwood samples will be collected and analyzed using standard dendrochronology techniques to date driftwood logs and estimate the age of driftwood deposits to within an estimated 20 years. Traditional ecological knowledge of storm events stored in the names of indigenous peoples in Savoonga and Gambell, Alaska will be used to identify the dates of large storms. These two Siberian Yupik villages name babies after significant events, like large storms, to retain knowledge of those events. This project catalogues the Siberian Yupik names of tribal members in Savoonga and Gambell to identify those names, and birthdates, of people named after large storms. Those dates will be used to narrow the date of driftwood deposits which will ultimately allow a measure of storm intensity over time.

虽然科学家们预计北极的风暴会随着气候变化而变得更强，但他们仍然不清楚风暴是否真的变得更强了。这些科学家面临的问题之一是缺乏对风暴强度的广泛测量。我们的项目旨在测量白令海地区的风暴强度，并生成一张显示一段时间内风暴强度的地图。然而，要生成这些地图，我们需要知道风暴是何时发生的，以及海浪在陆地上上升了多远。为了做到这一点，我们将测量过去风暴留下的旧浮木沉积物。在最大的海浪以风暴告终的土地上，留下了漂流的木材沉积物。到目前为止，当漂浮木被留在岸上时，我们将编制一份来自圣劳伦斯岛上两个土著村庄萨沃加和甘贝尔的西伯利亚尤皮克名字的目录。在他们的文化中，婴儿是以重大天气事件命名的。如果我们能找到与时光倒流的大型风暴事件有关的名字，我们或许能够将它们与各种浮木沉积物相匹配，以便绘制出一张风暴强度随时间变化的地图。如果随着时间的推移，陆地上的海浪上升得更高，那么我们或许能够说，随着气候变化，风暴正在变得越来越强。相反的情况也可能是真的。气候变化科学家对他们对北极风暴强度的理解仍然信心不足。虽然该地区的风暴强度可能已经增加，科学家们预计，随着气候的进一步变化，风暴强度将继续增加，但还需要更多证据来减少北极风暴强度方向的不确定性。这个项目旨在做到这一点。风暴潮，即海浪在陆地上上升的距离，将被用作风暴强度的替代指标。浮木堆积物的高度将被用来作为一个特定风暴的指标？S强度。该项目旨在测定浮木沉积物的年代，以显示风暴强度随时间变化的方向。将收集漂流木样本，并使用标准的树木年代学技术进行分析，以确定漂流木原木的年代，并估计漂流木沉积的年龄估计在20年内。储存在阿拉斯加州萨沃加和甘贝尔土著人民名下的风暴事件的传统生态学知识将被用来确定大风暴的日期。这两个西伯利亚尤皮克村庄以重大事件的名字命名婴儿，比如大风暴，以保持对这些事件的了解。该项目对萨沃加和甘贝尔部落成员的西伯利亚尤皮克人的名字进行编目，以确定以大风暴命名的人的名字和生日。这些日期将被用来缩小浮木存放的日期，这最终将允许测量一段时间内的风暴强度。