EAGER: Reducing Scientific Uncertainty of Storm Trends in Savoonga and Shaktoolik, Alaska with Traditional Knowledge

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While scientists expect storms in the Arctic to get stronger with climate change they still are not all that clear on whether storms have actually become stronger or not. One of the problems these scientists have is a lack of widespread measurements of storm strength. Our project aims to measure storm strength in the Bering Sea area and generate a map showing storm strength over time. To generate these maps, however, we need to know when the storms happened and how far the waves rose on the land. To do this, we will measure old driftwood deposits that were left by past storms. Driftwood deposits are left on the land where the largest waves ended in a storm. To date when the driftwood was left on the shore we will develop a catalogue of Siberian Yupik names from Savoonga and Gambell, two indigenous villages on St. Lawrence Island. In their culture babies have been named after large weather events. If we could find names related to large storm events going back in time we may be able to match them with various driftwood deposits in order to make a map of storm strength over time. If the waves are rising higher on the land over time then we might be able to say that storms are getting stronger with climate change. The opposite may also be true. Climate change scientists continue to have low confidence in their understanding of storm intensity in the Arctic. While it is likely that storm intensity has increased in this region and scientists expect storm intensity to continue to increase with additional climate change, more evidence is needed to decrease the uncertainty of the direction of storm intensity in the Arctic. This project aims to do that. Storm surge, how far waves rise on the land, will be used as a proxy for storm intensity. The height of driftwood deposits will be used as an indicator of a given storm?s intensity. This project aims to date driftwood deposits to show the direction of change in storm intensity over time. Driftwood samples will be collected and analyzed using standard dendrochronology techniques to date driftwood logs and estimate the age of driftwood deposits to within an estimated 20 years. Traditional ecological knowledge of storm events stored in the names of indigenous peoples in Savoonga and Gambell, Alaska will be used to identify the dates of large storms. These two Siberian Yupik villages name babies after significant events, like large storms, to retain knowledge of those events. This project catalogues the Siberian Yupik names of tribal members in Savoonga and Gambell to identify those names, and birthdates, of people named after large storms. Those dates will be used to narrow the date of driftwood deposits which will ultimately allow a measure of storm intensity over time.