EAGER: Computationally and Socially Guided Self-Experiments

这项研究将开发一个完全自动化的系统，指导用户调整健康跟踪和行为改善信息技术系统，以适应他们的个人需求。许多人在新鲜感消退后对健康跟踪设备失去了兴趣。虽然让用户能够通过数据改善自己的健康和健康的目标是有影响力的，但从长远来看，目前的方法严重依赖于显示图表并提供关于所采取的步数和心率的汇总统计数据，不足以激励大多数人。个性化推荐是提高参与度的关键因素。这个项目为社会进步提出了一种新的范式，以前从未被测试过--计算引导的自我实验。它使人们能够通过使用现有的移动设备对行为变化进行严格的结论性分析，而不必了解统计分析和实验设计的细节，并且无需支付任何成本。基本技术是以干预为基础的实验设计，观察和了解什么对每个人有效。整个周期包括通过可操作的行为改变建议生成干预措施，从结果中学习的因果分析，然后返回到生成新的干预措施。实验每月都在不断发展，因此用户总是被要求做出可操作的更改，并被告知正在进行的结果。实验设计以单病例干预研究方法的标准为指导，但进行了修改，以利用贝叶斯统计来消除不确定或过长的实验。本研究包括对引导性自我实验作为改善S生活的新范式的有效性的调查。测试的一个条件是，分组到匿名队列中分享正在进行的结果的人是否有助于激励他们继续进行漫长的实验。这些团体的社会性允许人们相互观察？S为自我激励而进步，并为进行新的自我实验获得想法。

This research will develop a fully automated system that guides users in adapting health tracking and behavior improvement information technology systems to suit their personal needs. Many people lose interest in health tracking devices after the novelty wears off. While the goal of empowering users to improve their own health and wellness with data is impactful, current methods which rely heavily on displaying charts and providing summary statistics about steps taken and heart rate, are not sufficiently motivating for most people in the long term. Personalized recommendations are a key factor to improve engagement. This project poses a new paradigm for societal improvement that has not been tested before - computationally guided self-experiments. It enables people to conduct rigorous conclusive analysis of behavior change without having to know details about statistical analysis and experimental design, at no cost by using their existing mobile devices. The underlying technology is an intervention-based experimental design that observes and learns what works for each individual.The complete cycle includes generating interventions through actionable behavior change suggestions, causal analysis to learn from outcomes, and then back to generating a new intervention. The experiment is constantly evolving from month to month, so the user is always being asked to make actionable changes and informed of ongoing results. The experimental design is guided by standards from single-case intervention research methods, but modified to take advantage of Bayesian statistics to eliminate inconclusive or excessively long experiments. The research comprises an investigation into the efficacy of guided self-experiments as a new paradigm for improving people?s lives. One condition tested will be whether people grouped into anonymous cohorts to share ongoing results can help motivate them to continue lengthy experiments. The social nature of the groups allow people to observe each other?s progress for self-motivation, and gain ideas for new self-experiments to run.