Transitional Justice and the Quality of Political Representation: Testing the Empirical Implications of a Formal Model

本研究探讨前独裁精英如何利用与各自政权相关的前执法机构获得的秘密信息。 该项目旨在了解这些信息是否可以用来勒索政客做出政策让步，或者以前未披露的侵犯人权信息是否会危及新民主国家的生存机会。 这条研究路线标志着比较政治学的一个新方向，即研究过渡时期正义（TJ）和民主代表制质量之间的关系。报告的重点是旨在审查政治候选人与专制政权勾结行为的政策，以及过去可能犯下的侵犯人权行为。这个过程被称为净化。在这方面，揭露过去独裁错误的证据可能会阻止前独裁精英影响新民主国家的政策。 在初步工作中，首席研究员表明，前独裁精英的影响力往往会随着过渡时期司法的严厉程度而下降，但随着选民将政治家参与前独裁政权视为一个重要问题而增加。这项工作还表明，在没有新闻自由的情况下，TJ政策的有效性会降低，因为媒体无法发现空洞的威胁，这使得前独裁者能够获得政策让步。令人惊讶的是，现任政治家和威权精英继任者之间意识形态差异的程度对前独裁者获得此类让步的能力没有影响。 这项研究将致力于制定更强有力的衡量TJ严重程度的措施，以帮助评估过渡时期司法如何有助于稳定的民主过渡。技术摘要该研究项目将导致创建两个新的数据集，用于测试关于过渡时期司法（TJ）影响的正式理论模型的经验意义。 该研究将分析时间序列的横截面数据，以评估在后独裁国家的净化和真相委员会在冲突后国家发挥民主巩固的作用。第二，研究将产生数据，追踪前独裁精英在政党和非政治部门的存在。该项目的总体目标是了解增加政治进程透明度的政策如何提高新民主国家民主代表的质量。这项研究将阐明伴随过渡司法的机构的重要性，特别是自由媒体，通过证明净化只有在作者的理论模型中的一套精确的条件下才能达到预期的效果。这是第一个研究，超越了研究法律上的TJ机构，研究事实上的TJ。 它这样做，试图揭示独裁精英的影响力的职位后，实施人员TJ的流行。通过探讨揭示秘密专制遗产的价值，研究了支持TJ的前瞻性论点的逻辑。与支持TJ惩罚专制错误行为的规范性论点相反，本项目侧重于TJ的真相揭示方面，并调查这种真相揭示是否增强了民主代表性。

General Abstract This research investigates how former authoritarian elites utilize the secret information acquired by the former enforcement apparatus associated with their respective regimes. The project seeks to learn whether such information can be used to blackmail politicians to make policy concessions, or whether previously undisclosed information about human rights abuses can jeopardize a new democracy's chances of survival. This line of research marks a new direction in comparative politics that examines the relationship between transitional justice (TJ) and the quality of democratic representation. It focuses on policies aimed at vetting political candidates for acts of collaboration with the authoritarian regime, and possible human rights violations committed in the past. This process is known as lustration. In this respect, revealing evidence of past authoritarian wrongs may prevent former authoritarian elites from influencing policy in new democracies. In preliminary work, the Principal Investigator shows that former authoritarian elites' influence tends to decrease with severity of transitional justice, but increases as voters view politicians' involvement with the former authoritarian regime as an important issue. The work also suggests that the effectiveness of TJ policies is reduced in the absence of a free press, as the media's inability to uncover empty threats which allows former autocrats to extract policy concessions. Surprisingly, the magnitude of ideological differences between current politicians and successors of authoritarian elites has no bearing on the ability of former autocrats to extract such concessions. This research will work to develop stronger measure of TJ severity to help evaluate how transitional justice can contribute to stable democratic transitions. Technical AbstractThe research project will result in the creation of two novel datasets constructed to test the empirical implications of a formal theoretical model about the effects of transitional justice (TJ). The research will analyze time series cross-sectional data to assess the role of lustration in post-authoritarian states and truth commissions in post-conflict states play in democratic consolidation. Second, the research will generate data that tracks the presence of former authoritarian elites in political parties and in the non-political sector. The overarching goal of this project is to understand how policies that increase transparency of the political process improve the quality of democratic representation in new democracies. This research will shed light on the importance of institutions accompanying transitional justice, specifically a free media, by demonstrating that lustration has the intended effect only under a precise set of conditions in the author's theoretical model. This is the first study that goes beyond studying de jure TJ institutions to study de facto TJ. It does so by seeking to uncover the prevalence of authoritarian elites holding positions of influence following the implementation of personnel TJ. By exploring the value of revealing secret authoritarian legacies, it studies the logic of forward-looking arguments in support of TJ. In contrast to normative arguments in favor of TJ as punishing authoritarian wrong-doing, this project focuses on the truth revealing aspect of TJ and investigates whether such truth revelation enhances democratic representation.