SEES Fellows: Modeling for sustainability in a changing environment: Emerging infectious diseases

来自杜兰大学的Carrie A.Manore博士将研究环境变化对新出现的传染病风险的影响，特别是人畜共患病和病媒传播的疾病。该奖项得到了以下机构的支持：计算机与信息科学与工程局、数学和物理科学局的数学科学部、国际和综合活动办公室、以及刺激竞争研究的实验计划办公室(EPSCoR)。拟议的工作将创建一个多尺度、综合模型的层次结构，其中包括非线性微分方程组、生态网络和基于代理人的模型，以提供一个框架，用于在空间不同的环境中理解和降低新出现的传染病的风险。特别是，这项研究将集中在美国的几种新出现的或可能出现的传染病上，包括西尼罗河病毒、登革热、裂谷热、汉坦病毒和基孔肯雅热，重点是人类的流动性、气候和环境干扰如何改变风险。工作中提出的建模研究的目的是揭示如何通过可持续的环境管理来降低新出现的疾病风险，包括更好地规划城市和农业扩张，更有效和高效的公共卫生战略，如使用新技术，增加监测和数据共享，以及关于人类操纵环境和生物多样性的重要性的知情选择。这样做的最终目的是让政策制定者更好地了解这些新出现的风险。马诺尔博士将与J。杜兰大学的海曼和路易斯安那州立大学病理生物科学系的克里斯托弗·莫雷斯，以及宾夕法尼亚州立大学和洛斯阿拉莫斯国家实验室的其他科学家。Manore博士还将指导该项目的研究生和本科生，包括来自代表性不足群体的学生。该项目由NSF科学、工程和可持续发展教育研究员(See Fellows)计划支持，目标是帮助实现所需的发现，从而为导致环境、能源和社会可持续发展的行动提供信息，同时创造必要的劳动力来应对这些挑战。在SEES研究员的支持下，该项目将使有前途的早期职业研究人员能够在与可持续发展相关的独立研究生涯中站稳脚跟。

In this Award from the NSF Science, Engineering and Education for Sustainability Fellows (SEES Fellows Program) Dr. Carrie A. Manore from Tulane University will study the impact of changes in the environment upon the risks for emerging infectious diseases, in particular zoonotic and vector-borne diseases. This award has support from: the Directorate for Computer & Information Science and Engineering, the Division of Mathematical Sciences in the Directorate for Mathematical and Physical Sciences, and the Office of International and Integrative Activities, and the Office of Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR).The proposed work will create a hierarchy of multi-scale, integrative models incorporating nonlinear systems of differential equations, ecological networks, and agent-based models to provide a framework for understanding and mitigating risk of emerging infectious diseases in a spatially heterogeneous environment. In particular, the research will focus on a few emerging or potentially emerging infectious diseases in the United States, including West Nile virus, dengue, Rift Valley fever, hantavirus and chikungunya, with an emphasis on how human mobility, climate, and disturbance of the environment modify risk.The aim of modeling studies like that proposed in work is to inform how emerging disease risk can be mitigated by sustainable management of the environment, including better planning of urban and agricultural expansion, more effective and efficient public health strategies such as use of new technology, increased surveillance and data sharing, and informed choices about human manipulation of the environment and the importance of biodiversity. The ultimate aim of work like this is to better inform policy makers about these new and emerging risks. Dr. Manore will be working with collaborators J. "Mac" Hyman of Tulane University and Christopher Mores, Department of Pathobiological Sciences at Louisiana State University, and additional scientists at Pennsylvania State University and Los Alamos National Laboratory. Dr. Manore will also be mentoring graduate and undergraduate students in this project, including students from underrepresented groups.This project is supported under the NSF Science, Engineering and Education for Sustainability Fellows (SEES Fellows) program, with the goal of helping to enable discoveries needed to inform actions that lead to environmental, energy and societal sustainability while creating the necessary workforce to address these challenges. With SEES Fellows support, this project will enable a promising early career researcher to establish themselves in an independent research career related to sustainability.