PREEVENTS Track 2: Collaborative Research: Comprehensive Hazard Analysis for Resilience to Geomagnetic Extreme Disturbances

预防措施轨道 2:协作研究:地磁极端扰动恢复能力的综合危害分析

基本信息

项目摘要

Extreme solar storms threaten society, in part, via Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) which damage power transmission systems. A space weather extreme event would devastate the US, costing more than $2T and leaving hundreds of millions without electricity for more than a month. The National Space Weather Action Plan calls for an immediate increase in research and improvements to our predictive capabilities to address this threat. This proposed work will make use of NSF funded data sources (AMPERE, SUPERMAG, and EarthScope) to improve existing models with in the Space Weather Modeling Framework and to generate a new tool for GIC prediction that could easily be transitioned to operations at NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center.Comprehensive Hazard Analysis for Resilience to Geomagnetic Extreme Disturbances (CHARGED) applies experts in various disciplines to create a fully coupled, physics-based model of GICs that includes the magnetosphere, ionosphere, and solid Earth together with validation against state-of-the art globally distributed observations. The Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) will be improved with realistic particle precipitation and ionospheric conductance physics. A global 3D finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) model will be used to propagate the ionosphere signal through the ground while accounting for the oceans and variable lithosphere conductivity. This model will be validated using the best available in-situ and remote data to determine its predictive accuracy. The relationship between solar driving and GICs will be explored for both historical and idealized extreme events. The project will yield fundamental new understanding of the processes leading to extreme GIC events (solicitation target 1), and expand our capability to model and forecast GIC hazards (target 2). The resulting coupled system could form a natural extension to the operational SWMF version currently at NOAA.
极端的太阳风暴在一定程度上通过破坏电力传输系统的地磁感应电流(GIC)威胁着社会。太空极端天气事件将摧毁美国,造成超过2T美元的损失,并导致数亿人一个多月断电。国家空间天气行动计划呼吁立即增加研究和改进我们的预测能力,以应对这一威胁。这项拟议的工作将利用NSF资助的数据源(Ampere、SuPERMAG和EarthScope)来改进现有的空间天气建模框架中的模型,并生成一个新的GIC预测工具,该工具可以很容易地过渡到NOAA的空间天气预测中心的业务。地磁极端扰动复原力的综合风险分析(CHEED)应用不同学科的专家来创建一个完全耦合的、基于物理的GIC模型,其中包括磁层、电离层和固体地球,并针对全球分布的最先进的观测进行验证。空间天气模型框架(SWMF)将通过真实的粒子降水和电离层电导物理得到改进。全球三维时域有限差分(FDTD)模型将被用来通过地面传播电离层信号,同时考虑海洋和可变的岩石层电导率。将使用现有的最佳现场和远程数据对该模型进行验证,以确定其预测准确性。太阳能驾驶和GIC之间的关系将在历史和理想化的极端事件中进行探索。该项目将从根本上对导致极端GIC事件的过程产生新的理解(征集目标1),并扩大我们模拟和预测GIC危险的能力(目标2)。由此产生的耦合系统可以形成目前在NOAA运行的SWMF版本的自然延伸。

项目成果

期刊论文数量(42)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
Instigators of future change in magnetospheric physics
磁层物理学未来变革的推动者
Analysis of Features in a Sliding Threshold of Observation for Numeric Evaluation (STONE) Curve
数值评价观察滑动阈值 (STONE) 曲线的特征分析
  • DOI:
    10.1029/2022sw003102
  • 发表时间:
    2022
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    3.7
  • 作者:
    Liemohn, Michael W.;Adam, Joshua G.;Ganushkina, Natalia Yu
  • 通讯作者:
    Ganushkina, Natalia Yu
Recreating the Horizontal Magnetic Field at Colaba During the Carrington Event With Geospace Simulations
通过地球空间模拟重现卡林顿事件期间科拉巴的水平磁场
  • DOI:
    10.1029/2020sw002585
  • 发表时间:
    2021
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    3.7
  • 作者:
    Blake, Seán P.;Pulkkinen, Antti;Schuck, Peter W.;Glocer, Alex;Oliveira, Denny M.;Welling, Daniel T.;Weigel, Robert S.;Quaresima, Gary
  • 通讯作者:
    Quaresima, Gary
Communicating Uncertainty and Reliability in Space Weather Data, Models, and Applications
传达空间天气数据、模型和应用中的不确定性和可靠性
  • DOI:
    10.1029/2018sw002083
  • 发表时间:
    2018
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    3.7
  • 作者:
    Knipp, Delores J.;Hapgood, Michael A.;Welling, Daniel
  • 通讯作者:
    Welling, Daniel
Application usability levels: a framework for tracking project product progress
应用程序可用性级别:跟踪项目产品进度的框架
  • DOI:
    10.1051/swsc/2019030
  • 发表时间:
    2019
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    3.3
  • 作者:
    Halford, Alexa J.;Kellerman, Adam C.;Garcia-Sage, Katherine;Klenzing, Jeffrey;Carter, Brett A.;McGranaghan, Ryan M.;Guild, Timothy;Cid, Consuelo;Henney, Carl J.;Ganushkina, Natalia Yu.
  • 通讯作者:
    Ganushkina, Natalia Yu.
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Michael Liemohn其他文献

Scientific Priorities for the Earth’s Coupled Inner Magnetosphere: A System-of-Systems Perspective
地球耦合内磁层的科学优先事项:系统的系统视角
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
    2023
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    Seth G. Claudepierre;Lunjin Chen;G. Delzanno;M. Gkioulidou;J. Goldstein;Raluca Ilie;A. Jaynes;V. Jordanova;L. Kepko;L. Kistler;Michael Liemohn;D. Malaspina;D. Turner
  • 通讯作者:
    D. Turner
Space Weather Effects Produced by the Ring Current Particles
  • DOI:
    10.1007/s11214-017-0412-2
  • 发表时间:
    2017-10-02
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    7.400
  • 作者:
    Natalia Ganushkina;Allison Jaynes;Michael Liemohn
  • 通讯作者:
    Michael Liemohn

Michael Liemohn的其他文献

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{{ truncateString('Michael Liemohn', 18)}}的其他基金

Synoptic Investigation of Extreme Events: Sun to the Upper Atmosphere
极端事件的天气调查:太阳到高层大气
  • 批准号:
    1414517
  • 财政年份:
    2014
  • 资助金额:
    $ 118.37万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: GEM: Investigation of UT Dependence of Magnetic Storm Strength
合作研究:GEM:磁暴强度对 UT 依赖性的调查
  • 批准号:
    1102863
  • 财政年份:
    2011
  • 资助金额:
    $ 118.37万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
GEM: Assessing the Storm-Time Magnetic Distortion in the Inner Magnetosphere
GEM:评估内磁层风暴时磁畸变
  • 批准号:
    0802705
  • 财政年份:
    2009
  • 资助金额:
    $ 118.37万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant
Collaborative Research: Global Response of the Martian Thermosphere to Energetic Pickup Ions
合作研究:火星热层对高能拾取离子的整体响应
  • 批准号:
    0908311
  • 财政年份:
    2009
  • 资助金额:
    $ 118.37万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant
Collaborative Research: Validating Global Magnetospheric Models with Theoretical Magnetograms
合作研究:用理论磁图验证全球磁层模型
  • 批准号:
    0455727
  • 财政年份:
    2005
  • 资助金额:
    $ 118.37万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant

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PREEVENTS Track 2: Collaborative Research: Flash droughts: process, prediction, and the central role of vegetation in their evolution.
预防事件轨道 2:合作研究:突发干旱:过程、预测以及植被在其演化中的核心作用。
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    $ 118.37万
  • 项目类别:
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