Transactive Uncertainty and Flexibility for High Penetration of Semi-dispatchable Renewables in Electricity Markets

太阳能、风能等可变能源的日益普及，对传统的电力系统运行和电力市场机制提出了挑战。由于其固有的间歇性和可变性，VER发电增加了电网的不确定性。ver固有的不确定性必须通过可用的灵活性来适应，例如能量存储、需求管理和能够提供大量增加或减少发电量的发电机。管理不确定性的现有方法通常被动地为这些灵活性来源提供启发式激励。然而，电力系统的灵活性是有限的。随着VER渗透率的显著增加，系统运营商通常会启发式地限制更多的可再生能源，并且由于灵活性稀缺，系统安全性可能会受到损害。因此，对不确定源所要求的柔性进行优化变得至关重要。本研究将探索电力市场的主动不确定性管理机制，并提出一个全新的概念，即交易灵活性和不确定性。将灵活性视为一种商品，可以在市场上买卖，以具有成本效益的方式彻底解决不足问题。由于其规模和复杂性，在现实系统中考虑到自适应网络的不确定性，求解相关的优化问题是非常具有挑战性的。本项目将开发快速调度工具，以满足实际电力市场对时效性的要求。此外，项目结果将有助于开发由首席研究员教授的新课程。该项目的目的是为半可调度可再生能源高渗透率的电网开发一个理论上合理且实用的市场清算模型和调度工具。主动不确定性管理将使灵活性最优化、前瞻性和成本效益最大化。根据统一的不确定性边际价格，对不确定性缓解者和不确定性来源提供明确和公平的激励，该价格随地点和时间而变化。本研究项目有三个衔接部分：(1)建立满足成本因果原则的具有交易不确定性和灵活性的新电力市场模型；(2)利用电网的特殊结构，设计计算性能可验证的日前和实时电力市场的新颖求解方法；(3)在实际电力系统中验证、演示和推广所提出的模型和计算方法。该项目的成功完成将潜在地解决电力系统中不确定性管理的根本挑战。该项目的系统框架有望增加社会福利，允许更深层次的VER渗透，增强电网的安全性和可靠性，并改善市场公平。

The increasing penetration of variable energy resources (VER), such as solar and wind generation, is challenging traditional power system operations and electricity market mechanisms. Due to its intrinsic intermittency and variability, VER generation leads to increased uncertainty in the power grid. The uncertainty inherent in VERs must be accommodated by available flexibilities, such as energy storage, demand management, and generators that can offer large rates of increase or reduction of generation. Existing methods for managing uncertainty often passively offer heuristic incentives to these sources of flexibility. However, the available flexibility in the electric power system is limited. As VER penetration increases significantly, system operators often heuristically curtail more renewables, and system security can be jeopardized due to flexibility scarcity. Thus, it becomes crucial to optimize the flexibility demanded by the uncertain sources. The research project will explore an active uncertainty management mechanism in the electricity market with a novel concept, transactive flexibility and uncertainty. Flexibility will be treated like a commodity, which can be bought and sold in the market, to completely address the issue of deficiency in a cost-effective way. Due to its scale and complexity, it is very challenging to solve the associated optimization problem considering the uncertainties from VERs in real-world systems. This project will develop fast scheduling tools to meet the timeliness requirement in real electricity markets. Also, the project results will contribute to development of a new course to be taught by the Principal Investigator.The aim of this project is to develop a theoretically sound yet practical market clearing model and scheduling tool for power grids with high penetration of semi-dispatchable renewables. Active uncertainty management will position the flexibility optimally, proactively and cost efficiently. Clear and fair incentives will be provided to both uncertainty mitigators and uncertainty sources based on a unified uncertainty marginal price, which varies with location and time. The research project has three cohesive parts: (1) developing a new electricity market model with transactive uncertainty and flexibility satisfying a cost-causation principle; (2) designing novel solution approaches for day-ahead and real-time electricity markets with provable computational performance through exploiting the special structure of the power grid; (3) validating, demonstrating, and promoting the proposed models and computational methods in real-world power systems. The successful completion of this project will potentially address the fundamental challenge of uncertainty management in electric power systems. The systematic framework of the project is expected to increase social welfare, allow for deeper VER penetration, enhance the security and reliability of the power grid, and improve market fairness.