Understanding the Complex Impact of Convergence Bids on Wholesale Electricity Markets: Current and Future Implications

这个项目的目标是建立一个分析基础和新的数学工具，以调查和解释在批发电力市场上进行融合投标(CBS)，也就是虚拟投标(VBS)的复杂结果，有时甚至是违反直觉的结果。美国的几家独立系统运营商(ISO)采用了CBS，普遍认为CBS将通过降低日前市场(DAM)和实时市场(RTM)价格之间的差距来提高市场效率。然而，过去几年对ISO市场数据的分析导致了关于CBS在电力市场的真正优势或劣势及其对公用事业客户和发电公司的影响的当前不确定和辩论状态。令人担忧的是，发生这样的争论背后的原因：目前对于CBS如何在批发电力市场工作(或不工作)，没有明确的科学理解。然而，该委员会的初步研究表明，ISO最近对哥伦比亚广播公司提出的一些关切是根本的，其根本原因可以通过数学分析和说明性例子来理解。简而言之，这些问题中的许多是由于传输线、发电机和负载的物理特性，这不允许应用在其他金融和大宗商品市场交易中观察到的普遍接受的市场效率原则。这项建议的学术价值是以数学分析和说明性例子和案例研究的形式提供科学基础，这有助于最终解决国际标准化组织市场上关于CBS主题的不确定和争论的现状。该项目的智力进展将围绕三个主要研究主题形成和组织：1)描述CBS对价格融合的影响；2)描述CBS对整体市场表现的影响；以及3)解释结果的当前和未来影响，并提出建议，以增强CBS的潜在好处，同时避免其在现有和新兴电力市场的潜在有害影响。

The objective of this project is to build an analytical foundation and new mathematical tools to investigate and explain the complex and sometimes counter-intuitive results of placing convergence bids (CBs), a.k.a., virtual bids (VBs), in wholesale electricity markets. Several Independent System Operators (ISOs) in the United States have adopted CBs with the general assumption that CBs would enhance market efficiency by lowering the gap between the prices in the day-ahead market (DAM) and prices in the real-time market (RTM). However, analysis of ISO market data over the past few years has led to a current state of uncertainty and debate about the true advantages or disadvantages of CBs in electricity markets and their impact on utility customers and generation firms. What is alarming is the reason behind having such debates: there is currently no clear scientific understanding of how CBs work (or don't work) in wholesale electricity markets. However, the PI's preliminary studies have shown that some of the concerns that are recently raised by ISOs about CBs are fundamental and have root causes that can be understood through mathematical analysis and illustrative examples. In brief, many of these issues are due to the physics of transmission lines, generators, and loads, which do not allow application of the generally accepted principles of market efficiency as observed in trading in other financial and commodity marketplaces. The intellectual merit in this proposal is to provide scientific fundamentals, in the form of mathematical analysis and illustrative examples and case studies, which can help to ultimately resolve the current state of uncertainty and debate on the subject of CBs in ISO markets. The intellectual advances in this project will be shaped and organized around three main research thrust themes: 1) characterizing the impact of CBs on price convergence; 2) characterizing the impact of CBs on overall market performance; and 3) explaining the current and future implications of the results and making recommendations to enhance the potential benefits of CBs while avoiding their potential detrimental impact in existing and emerging electricity markets.