INFEWS/T1: Scarcity Amid Abundance: Understanding Trade-offs in the Food-Energy-Water Nexus in the Willamette River Basin

粮食、能源和水安全是日益增长的人口的健康、繁荣和福利所必需的。还需要三个资源安全，以应对预期的土地利用变化、野火、人口变化、气候变化和不可预测的未来事件。粮食、能源和水安全不能孤立地实现，供应链在每个阶段都相互关联，并受到一系列共同因素(市场、法律、政策)的影响。为了使所有资源供应链更加安全，有必要将问题作为一个整体(以及每个环节)加以解决，并评估其对整个系统稳定性的影响。这些复杂的供应系统涉及若干相互依存关系和脆弱性，一旦确定了这些脆弱性，就可以确定一些行动，从而减少浪费、提高效率、增强复原力和加强安全。为此，本项目将1)准备一个相互关联的食物-能量-水系统的综合模型；2)以此为基础，充分描述俄勒冈州威拉米特山谷的食物-能量-水系统的特征，这是一个足够大的测试案例，以证明系统模型的能力；3)让利益攸关方参与系统模型的开发和改进，以调查与森林、水库和农业生产管理相关的政策变化的区域后果；4)通过加强对系统相互依存性和脆弱性的了解，批判性地评估该方法的优点和缺点，以及5)产生可移植到其他地区的模块化和可推广的系统模型。该项目与决策者和利益攸关方密切合作，将提供有价值的新信息、工具和理解，共同开发适应能力和改进战略，以管理我们的粮食、能源和水供应的安全和可持续性。威拉米特河流域(WRB)是美国西部仅存的几个流域之一，目前有足够的水可靠地支持农业和市政需求。预计该地区的压力来源包括：人口翻一番，下个世纪积雪减少高达95%，森林火灾增加200-900%。利益攸关方和决策者还有义务通过维持河流流量和水质来保护鱼类种群。这些因素加在一起，正在给食品、水和能源安全带来重大变化。一个新出现的关键问题是：我们如何最好地利用有限的资源来满足相互竞争的需求，同时还能为世界生物圈内外日益增长的人口确保食物、水和能源？在解决这些问题所需的关键信息方面存在很大差距。对于项目利益攸关方，问题是了解威拉米特盆地目前和未来与粮食、水和能源有关的潜在权衡，制定将导致生产性和可持续未来的综合战略。这个项目将实施一个完整的建模框架，将水、能源和食物整合到一个建模框架中，该框架结合了对自然环境、工程系统、人类决策者和经济的理解。Willamette enVision将允许对未来进行“预演”；探索政策、资源管理决策、气候影响和人口增长的潜在相互作用、反馈和后果。该模型将是开源的，完全可移植，因此它可以用于世界上任何盆地(S)。Willamette enVision可以评估气候变化、人口增长和经济发展将如何改变Willamette河的水的供应和使用、能源的消耗和生产以及食物的生产，时间尺度从十年到百年不等。通过这一努力开发的可转移关系建模框架将从高度解析的完全集成的社会生态系统模型的输出中提取出来。在这个框架内确定的输入、不确定性和反馈将代表FEWS系统模型的不可减少的复杂性限制。这一改进的、用户友好的模式将构成可转让的教育、外联和科学工具的基础。有了这个工具，学生、管理者、政策制定者和利益相关者将能够探索资源权衡，以及政策决策、法规和经济的影响。在开发简化模型的同时，该项目将在夏季为教师举办培训讲习班，在那里将开发课堂和在线教学模块，以便与我们的建模工作结合使用。研究成果还将转化为基于网络的决策支持工具和基于网络的互动信息图表，分发给利益攸关方。通过俄勒冈州科学和数学体验形式面向教师和学生的外联努力将利用已经建立的沟通渠道，向4-12年级650名代表性不足的学生(通过63名教师)提供实践STEM体验。

Food, energy, and water security are required for the health, prosperity and welfare of growing populations. Three resource security is also needed to prepare for anticipated land use change, wildfire, population change, climatic alterations and unpredictable future events. Food, energy and water security cannot be achieved in isolation, with supply chains that are linked at every stage, and influenced by a range of common factors (markets, laws, policies). In order to to make all resource supply chains more secure, it is necessary to address the problem as a whole (as well as each link) and to assess its impact on the stability of the full system. These complex supply systems involve a number of interdependencies and vulnerabilities which, once characterized, will allow for the identification of a number of actions that will lead to reduced waste, increased efficiency, greater resilience and enhanced security. To that end, this project will 1) prepare a comprehensive model of the interrelated food-energy-water system; 2) use this as a basis for fully characterizing the food-energy-water system of the Willamette Valley, Oregon, a test case of sufficient size to demonstrate the system model's capabilities; 3) engage stakeholders in the development and refinement of the system model to investigate the regional consequences of changes in policy related to the management of forests, reservoirs and agricultural production; 4) critically evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the approach through an enhanced understanding of system interdependencies and vulnerabilities, and 5) produce a modular and generalizable system model that is transferrable to other regions. Working closely with decision makers and stakeholders, this project will contribute valuable new information, tools, and understanding to co-develop adaptive capacity and improved strategies for managing the security and sustainability of our food, energy and water supplies. The Willamette River Basin (WRB) is one of the few remaining watersheds in the western US that currently has sufficient water to reliably support agricultural and municipal demands. Anticipated stressors in the region include: doubling in population, snowpack decline of up to 95% in the coming century, and a 200-900% increase in forest fires. Stakeholders and decision makers also have an obligation to protect fish populations via the maintenance of both streamflow levels and water quality. In combination, these factors are imposing significant changes in food, water, and energy security. One emerging key question is: how can we best use our limited resources to satisfy competing demands while also securing food, water and energy for growing populations both within and outside the WRB? Substantial gaps exist in critical information required to address these questions. With project stakeholders, the problem is to understand the current and future potential tradeoffs related to food, water and energy in the Willamette Basin, developing integrated strategies that will lead to productive and sustainable futures. This project will implement a complete modeling framework that integrates water, energy, and food within a modeling framework that incorporates understanding of the natural environment, the engineered systems, the human decision makers, and the economy. Willamette Envision will allow a "rehearsal" of the future; an exploration of the potential interactions, feedbacks, and consequences of policies, resource management decisions, climate impacts and population growth. The model will be open source and fully transferrable, such that it can be used for any basin(s) in the world. Willamette Envision can evaluate how climate change, population growth, and economic development will alter the availability and the use of water, consumption and generation of energy and production of food in the Willamette River on timescales ranging from decadal to centennial. A transferrable nexus modeling framework, developed via this effort will be distilled from the outputs of a highly resolved fully integrated social-ecological systems model. The inputs, uncertainties and feedbacks identified within this framework will represent the irreducible limit of complexity for a FEWS system model. The refined and user-friendly model will form the basis of a transferrable educational, outreach and scientific tool. With this tool, students, managers, policy makers and stakeholders will be able to explore resource tradeoffs, and the impact of policy decisions, regulations, and economy. In conjunction with the simplified model development, the project will host training workshops for teachers in the summer where in class and online instructional modules will be developed to be used in conjunction with our modeling efforts. The outcomes of the research will also be transformed into web-based decision support tools and interactive web-based infographics, to be distributed to stakeholders. The outreach effort to teachers and students through Oregon Science and Math Experiences format will provide hands-on STEM experiences to 650 underrepresented students (through 63 teachers) in grades 4-12 using already established lines of communication.