权益分类	功能权益	普通用户	{{item.name}}会员
{{category.name}}	{{benefitItem.name}}

INFEWS/T1: Scarcity Amid Abundance: Understanding Trade-offs in the Food-Energy-Water Nexus in the Willamette River Basin

INFEWS/T1：丰富中的稀缺：了解威拉米特河流域粮食-能源-水关系的权衡

基本信息

批准号：
1740082
负责人：
Chad Higgins
金额：
$ 243.01万
依托单位：
Oregon State University
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Continuing Grant
财政年份：
2017
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2017-09-01 至 2022-08-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1740082&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
INFEWS T1 Scarcity Amid Abundance

项目摘要

Food, energy, and water security are required for the health, prosperity and welfare of growing populations. Three resource security is also needed to prepare for anticipated land use change, wildfire, population change, climatic alterations and unpredictable future events. Food, energy and water security cannot be achieved in isolation, with supply chains that are linked at every stage, and influenced by a range of common factors (markets, laws, policies). In order to to make all resource supply chains more secure, it is necessary to address the problem as a whole (as well as each link) and to assess its impact on the stability of the full system. These complex supply systems involve a number of interdependencies and vulnerabilities which, once characterized, will allow for the identification of a number of actions that will lead to reduced waste, increased efficiency, greater resilience and enhanced security. To that end, this project will 1) prepare a comprehensive model of the interrelated food-energy-water system; 2) use this as a basis for fully characterizing the food-energy-water system of the Willamette Valley, Oregon, a test case of sufficient size to demonstrate the system model's capabilities; 3) engage stakeholders in the development and refinement of the system model to investigate the regional consequences of changes in policy related to the management of forests, reservoirs and agricultural production; 4) critically evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the approach through an enhanced understanding of system interdependencies and vulnerabilities, and 5) produce a modular and generalizable system model that is transferrable to other regions. Working closely with decision makers and stakeholders, this project will contribute valuable new information, tools, and understanding to co-develop adaptive capacity and improved strategies for managing the security and sustainability of our food, energy and water supplies. The Willamette River Basin (WRB) is one of the few remaining watersheds in the western US that currently has sufficient water to reliably support agricultural and municipal demands. Anticipated stressors in the region include: doubling in population, snowpack decline of up to 95% in the coming century, and a 200-900% increase in forest fires. Stakeholders and decision makers also have an obligation to protect fish populations via the maintenance of both streamflow levels and water quality. In combination, these factors are imposing significant changes in food, water, and energy security. One emerging key question is: how can we best use our limited resources to satisfy competing demands while also securing food, water and energy for growing populations both within and outside the WRB? Substantial gaps exist in critical information required to address these questions. With project stakeholders, the problem is to understand the current and future potential tradeoffs related to food, water and energy in the Willamette Basin, developing integrated strategies that will lead to productive and sustainable futures. This project will implement a complete modeling framework that integrates water, energy, and food within a modeling framework that incorporates understanding of the natural environment, the engineered systems, the human decision makers, and the economy. Willamette Envision will allow a "rehearsal" of the future; an exploration of the potential interactions, feedbacks, and consequences of policies, resource management decisions, climate impacts and population growth. The model will be open source and fully transferrable, such that it can be used for any basin(s) in the world. Willamette Envision can evaluate how climate change, population growth, and economic development will alter the availability and the use of water, consumption and generation of energy and production of food in the Willamette River on timescales ranging from decadal to centennial. A transferrable nexus modeling framework, developed via this effort will be distilled from the outputs of a highly resolved fully integrated social-ecological systems model. The inputs, uncertainties and feedbacks identified within this framework will represent the irreducible limit of complexity for a FEWS system model. The refined and user-friendly model will form the basis of a transferrable educational, outreach and scientific tool. With this tool, students, managers, policy makers and stakeholders will be able to explore resource tradeoffs, and the impact of policy decisions, regulations, and economy. In conjunction with the simplified model development, the project will host training workshops for teachers in the summer where in class and online instructional modules will be developed to be used in conjunction with our modeling efforts. The outcomes of the research will also be transformed into web-based decision support tools and interactive web-based infographics, to be distributed to stakeholders. The outreach effort to teachers and students through Oregon Science and Math Experiences format will provide hands-on STEM experiences to 650 underrepresented students (through 63 teachers) in grades 4-12 using already established lines of communication.

粮食、能源和水安全是不断增长的人口的健康、繁荣和福利所必需的。同时还需要三大资源保障，为预期的土地利用变化、野火、人口变化、气候变化和不可预测的未来事件做好准备。粮食、能源和水安全不可能孤立地实现，因为供应链在每个阶段都是相互联系的，并受到一系列共同因素（市场、法律、政策）的影响。为了使所有资源供应链更加安全，有必要从整体上（以及每个环节）解决问题，并评估其对整个系统稳定性的影响。这些复杂的供应系统涉及许多相互依赖关系和脆弱性，一旦确定特征，就可以确定一些行动，从而减少浪费，提高效率，增强弹性和增强安全性。为此目的，本项目将1)编制一个相互关联的粮食-能源-水系统的综合模型；2)以此为基础，全面描述俄勒冈州威拉米特河谷的食物-能源-水系统，这是一个足够规模的测试案例，可以证明系统模型的能力；3)让利益相关者参与系统模型的开发和完善，以调查与森林、水库和农业生产管理有关的政策变化的区域后果；4)通过加强对系统相互依赖性和脆弱性的理解，批判性地评估方法的优缺点；5)产生可转移到其他地区的模块化和可推广的系统模型。与决策者和利益相关者密切合作，该项目将提供宝贵的新信息、工具和理解，共同开发适应能力和改进战略，以管理我们的粮食、能源和水供应的安全性和可持续性。威拉米特河流域（WRB）是美国西部少数几个目前有足够的水来可靠地支持农业和市政需求的流域之一。预计该地区的压力因素包括：人口增加一倍，下个世纪积雪减少95%，森林火灾增加200%至900%。利益相关者和决策者也有义务通过维持河流水位和水质来保护鱼类种群。综合起来，这些因素正在给粮食、水和能源安全带来重大变化。一个正在出现的关键问题是：我们如何才能最好地利用有限的资源来满足相互竞争的需求，同时为世界自然保护区内外不断增长的人口确保粮食、水和能源？在解决这些问题所需的关键信息方面存在很大差距。对于项目利益相关者来说，问题在于了解Willamette盆地当前和未来与食物、水和能源相关的潜在权衡，制定综合战略，从而实现高效和可持续的未来。该项目将实现一个完整的建模框架，将水、能源和食物集成到一个建模框架中，该框架结合了对自然环境、工程系统、人类决策者和经济的理解。Willamette Envision将允许对未来进行“预演”；探讨政策、资源管理决策、气候影响和人口增长之间潜在的相互作用、反馈和后果。该模型将是开源和完全可转移的，这样它就可以用于世界上任何一个盆地。Willamette Envision可以评估气候变化、人口增长和经济发展将如何在十年到百年的时间尺度上改变Willamette河的水的可用性和使用、能源的消耗和生产以及食物的生产。通过这一努力开发的可转移的联系建模框架将从高度解决的完全综合的社会生态系统模型的产出中提炼出来。在这个框架内确定的输入、不确定性和反馈将代表FEWS系统模型的复杂性的不可简化的限制。精练和用户友好的模式将构成一种可转让的教育、推广和科学工具的基础。有了这个工具，学生、管理者、政策制定者和利益相关者将能够探索资源权衡，以及政策决策、法规和经济的影响。在简化模型开发的同时，该项目将在夏季为教师举办培训研讨会，其中将开发课堂和在线教学模块，与我们的建模工作结合使用。研究成果还将转化为基于网络的决策支持工具和交互式基于网络的信息图表，分发给利益相关者。通过俄勒冈州科学和数学体验模式对教师和学生的推广工作将通过已经建立的沟通渠道，为4-12年级的650名代表性不足的学生（通过63名教师）提供动手STEM体验。