A Changing Electoral Politics in Western Democracies: Comparing the 2017 British Election to France, Germany, the United States, and Southern Europe within the Comparative National

西方民主国家不断变化的选举政治：比较国家选举中 2017 年英国大选与法国、德国、美国和南欧的比较

• 批准号: 1744626
• 负责人: Erik Nisbet
• 金额: $ 5.42万
• 依托单位: Ohio State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2017-07-15 至 2018-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1744626&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Changing; Electoral; Politics; Western; Democracies

The system of stable and consensual democracy in Britain is fraying at the edges. Anti-establishment populist political movements are on the rise, the traditional bases of party support have shifted, the public is deeply divided on many issues, most visibly Brexit, and Scotland is threatening a second independence referendum. However, these kinds of startling developments in political behavior and party system structure are not unique to Britain. Rather, they seem to be symptomatic of changes in many other established western democracies. This project proposes a study of British voters in the June 8, 2017 general election. That enterprise is an interesting topic in its own right. It also provides an opportunity to compare voting behavior in one country with that in seven other western democracies. The project is a part of the larger Comparative National Election Project (CNEP), which consists of surveys on recent national elections in the United States, France, and four Southern European countries, along with an upcoming 2017 post-election survey in Germany. The CNEP's common core survey design allows for systematic comparison across the eight cases. The CNEP survey in Great Britain will produce significant impacts by leveraging data collection from seven other western democracies, and through a collaborative network of country and cross-national election experts. The project holds the potential to shed insights on factors that can help strengthen democracy, encourage citizen participation and engagement, improve political communication, and address negative consequences resulting from political polarization. The team will disseminate data and findings widely. The investigators plan to publicize their findings to the public via media interviews, university publicity, essays on such platforms such as The Conversation and the Washington Post's Monkey Cage blog, white papers, and community talks. A survey of voters in the British general election on June 8, 2017 provides the opportunity for theoretically-driven comparative research examining contemporary voting behavior in the four largest (or core) western democracies: the United States, France, Germany, and Great Britain, all of which have held national elections within the a year of each other. Parallel surveys of the 2016 presidential election in the United States and the May 7 second-round French presidential election have been completed, and a parallel survey of the September federal legislative elections in Germany is in the works. These studies all utilize the common core questionnaire that has been at the center of 49 post-election surveys in 27 countries over the past three decades under the auspices of the Comparative National Elections Project (CNEP). Use of a common questionnaire and the availability of four CNEP surveys of elections recently held in southern Europe greatly facilitates comparative analysis. The strength of the proposed project is the systematic comparative analysis it allows of voting behavior across these eight western democracies, at least three of which have undergone substantial party-system realignment in recent years. Additional analytical insights concerning certain core CNEP concerns, such as attitudes toward democracy, will be gained by selective comparative analysis of these eight political systems with several semi-democratic countries (e.g. Turkey) that have been surveyed in the last three years using the core CNEP questionnaire. The primary aim of the research is to seek to explain the fundamental challenges to established patterns of voting behavior and the structure of party systems that emerged in recent years. The team does so focusing on factors such as responses to economic stress, changing patterns of political intermediation, demand for and satisfaction with democracy, and political polarization. Beyond enabling analysis of British voters in 2017, the CNEP British survey will have a strong multiplier effect by leveraging data collection from the 3 core western democracies and 4 southern Europe countries, as well as by drawing upon a network of country and cross-national election experts. The outcomes are expected to include a volume charting new patterns of electoral politics in core western democracies and southern Europe, papers and peer-reviewed publications analyzing the major underlying factors impacting stability and change in party support in the core western democratic countries and the public release of the British dataset after an embargo period.

在英国，稳定和共识民主的体系正在边缘磨损。反建制的民粹主义政治运动正在兴起，政党支持的传统基础已经转移，公众在许多问题上存在严重分歧，最明显的是英国退欧，苏格兰威胁要举行第二次独立公投。然而，政治行为和政党制度结构的这种惊人发展并非英国所独有。相反，它们似乎是其他许多老牌西方民主国家变化的征兆。该项目建议对2017年6月8日大选中的英国选民进行研究。 那项事业本身就是一个有趣的话题。它还提供了一个机会，比较一个国家与其他七个西方民主国家的投票行为。该项目是更大的国家选举比较项目（CNEP）的一部分，该项目包括对美国，法国和四个南欧国家最近的全国选举的调查，沿着即将到来的2017年德国的选举后调查。CNEP的共同核心调查设计允许对八个案例进行系统比较。CNEP在英国的调查将通过利用从其他七个西方民主国家收集的数据，并通过国家和跨国选举专家的合作网络产生重大影响。 该项目有可能深入了解有助于加强民主、鼓励公民参与和参与、改善政治沟通和解决政治两极化造成的负面后果的因素。该小组将广泛传播数据和调查结果。 调查人员计划通过媒体采访、大学宣传、在《对话》和《华盛顿邮报》的猴笼博客等平台上发表文章、白色报纸和社区谈话等方式，向公众公布他们的调查结果。2017年6月8日英国大选的选民调查为理论驱动的比较研究提供了机会，研究了四个最大（或核心）西方民主国家的当代投票行为：美国，法国，德国和英国，所有这些国家都在一年内举行了全国大选。对2016年美国总统选举和5月7日法国第二轮总统选举的平行调查已经完成，对德国9月联邦立法选举的平行调查正在进行中。这些研究都使用了共同的核心问卷，该问卷在过去三十年中一直是27个国家49次选举后调查的中心，由国家选举比较项目（CNEP）主持。使用一个共同的调查表和提供国家选举委员会对最近在南欧举行的选举进行的四次调查，极大地便利了比较分析。该项目的优势在于，它允许对这八个西方民主国家的投票行为进行系统的比较分析，其中至少有三个国家近年来经历了重大的政党制度调整。关于某些核心CNEP的关注，如对民主的态度，将获得额外的分析见解，这八个政治制度与几个半民主国家（如土耳其），在过去三年中进行了调查，使用核心CNEP问卷的选择性比较分析。研究的主要目的是试图解释近年来出现的对既定投票行为模式和政党制度结构的根本挑战。该小组的研究重点是对经济压力的反应、不断变化的政治中介模式、对民主的需求和满意度以及政治两极分化等因素。除了在2017年对英国选民进行分析外，CNEP英国调查还将通过利用从3个核心西方民主国家和4个南欧国家收集的数据，以及利用国家和跨国选举专家网络，产生强大的乘数效应。预计成果将包括一卷图表的新模式的选举政治在核心的西方民主国家和南欧，论文和同行评议的出版物分析的主要潜在因素影响稳定和变化的政党支持在核心的西方民主国家和公开发布的英国数据集后，禁运时期。