Collaborative Research: Assessing Drivers of Climate Model Biases on the Pacific Continental Shelf of Antarctica

合作研究：评估南极洲太平洋大陆架气候模型偏差的驱动因素

• 批准号: 1744792
• 负责人: Christopher Little
• 金额: $ 24.6万
• 依托单位: Atmospheric and Environmental Research Inc
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-08-01 至 2020-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1744792&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Assessing; Drivers; Climate

Oceanographic processes in the Pacific sector of coastal Antarctica exhibit global interactions, including contribution of Antarctic ice-sheets to sea level rise, changes in the Earth's radiative balance, air/sea gas exchange through sea-ice variability, deep water formation, and Southern Ocean biological productivity. Atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) are useful tools for understanding the complex interactions between global climate, the Antarctic coastal ocean, the cryosphere (sea ice, ice shelves, and grounded, marine-based ice sheet), and Antarctic ecosystems. Current-generation GCMs exhibit substantial biases in their projections of present-day hydrography and sea ice state. Previous projections of the coastal cryosphere have applied simple bias corrections. However, this approach does not remedy the underlying physical and numerical errors responsible for these biases. This project seeks the relevance of biases to the interpretation of GCM projections by identifying their local and/or remote origins and their variation across regions and with different climate models. It will leverage the wealth of new simulations becoming available through the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 6 (CMIP6), and will focus on the rapidly-changing Pacific sector of the coastal Antarctic.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

南极洲沿海太平洋地区的海洋学过程表现出全球相互作用，包括南极冰盖对海平面上升的贡献、地球辐射平衡的变化、海冰变化引起的空气/海气交换、深水形成和南大洋生物生产力。大气-海洋环流模型 (GCM) 是了解全球气候、南极沿海海洋、冰冻圈（海冰、冰架和地面海洋冰盖）和南极生态系统之间复杂相互作用的有用工具。当前一代 GCM 在对当今水文学和海冰状态的预测中表现出很大的偏差。以前对沿海冰冻圈的预测已经应用了简单的偏差修正。然而，这种方法并不能纠正造成这些偏差的潜在物理和数字错误。 该项目通过确定偏差的本地和/或远程起源及其跨地区和不同气候模型的变化，寻求偏差与 GCM 预测解释的相关性。它将利用通过耦合模型比对项目第 6 阶段 (CMIP6) 提供的大量新模拟，并将重点关注南极沿海快速变化的太平洋区域。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优点和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

A protocol for calculating basal melt rates in the ISMIP6 Antarctic ice sheet projections

用于计算 ISMIP6 南极冰盖预测中的基础融化速率的协议

• DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-3111-2020
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: The Cryosphere
• 作者: Jourdain, Nicolas C.;Asay-Davis, Xylar;Hattermann, Tore;Straneo, Fiammetta;Seroussi, Hélène;Little, Christopher M.;Nowicki, Sophie
• 通讯作者: Nowicki, Sophie

ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century

ISMIP6 南极洲：21 世纪南极冰盖演化的多模型集合

• DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: The Cryosphere
• 作者: Seroussi, Hélène;Nowicki, Sophie;Payne, Antony J.;Goelzer, Heiko;Lipscomb, William H.;Abe-Ouchi, Ayako;Agosta, Cécile;Albrecht, Torsten;Asay-Davis, Xylar;Barthel, Alice
• 通讯作者: Barthel, Alice

CMIP5 model selection for ISMIP6 ice sheet model forcing: Greenland and Antarctica

• DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-855-2020
• 发表时间: 2020-03-06
• 期刊: CRYOSPHERE
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Barthel, Alice;Agosta, Cecile;Bracegirdle, Thomas J.
• 通讯作者: Bracegirdle, Thomas J.

Experimental protocol for sea level projections from ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet models

• DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020
• 发表时间: 2020-07-23
• 期刊: CRYOSPHERE
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Nowicki, Sophie;Goelzer, Heiko;van de Wal, Roderik
• 通讯作者: van de Wal, Roderik