Collaborative Research: Do Ocean Wave Impacts Pose a Hazard to the Stability of West Antarctic Ice Shelves?

合作研究：海浪冲击是否会对南极西部冰架的稳定性造成危害？

• 批准号: 1744856
• 负责人: Peter Bromirski
• 金额: $ 40.21万
• 依托单位: University of California-San Diego Scripps Inst of Oceanography
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-06-01 至 2024-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1744856&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Do; Ocean; Wave

Understanding and being able to more reliably forecast ice mass loss from Antarctica is a critical research priority for Antarctic Science. Massive ice shelves buttress marine terminating glaciers, slowing the rate that land ice reaches the sea and, in turn, restraining the rate of sea level rise. To date, most work has focused on the destabilizing impacts of warmer air and water temperatures, resulting in melting that thins and weakens ice shelves. However, recent findings indicate that sea ice does not protect ice shelves from wave impacts as much as previously thought, which has raised the possibility that tsunamis and other ocean waves could affect shelf stability. This project will assess the potential for increased shelf fracturing from the impact of tsunamis and from heightened wave activity due to climate-driven changes in storm patterns and reduced sea-ice extent by developing models to investigate how wave impacts damage ice shelves. The modeling effort will allow for regional comparisons between large and small ice shelves, and provide an evaluation of the impacts of changing climate and storm patterns on ice shelves, ice sheets, glaciers, and, ultimately, sea level rise. This project will train graduate students in mathematical modeling and interdisciplinary approaches to Earth and ocean sciences.This project takes a four-pronged approach to estimating the impact of vibrations on ice shelves at the grounding zone due to tsunamis, very long period, infragravity, and storm-driven waves. First, the team will use high-resolution tsunami modeling to investigate the response of ice shelves along the West Antarctic coast to waves originating in different regions of the Pacific Ocean. Second, it will compare the response to wave impacts on grounding zones of narrow and wide ice shelves. Third, it will assess the exposure risk due to storm forcing through a reanalysis of weather and wave model data; and, finally, the team will model the propagation of ocean-wave-induced vibrations in the ice from the shelf front to and across the grounding zone. In combination, this project aims to identify locations along the Antarctic coast that are subject to enhanced, bathymetrically-focused, long-period ocean-wave impacts. Linkages between wave impacts and climate arise from potential changes in sea-ice extent in front of shelves, and changes in the magnitude, frequency, and tracks of storms. Understanding the effects of ocean waves and climate on ice-shelf integrity is critical to anticipate their contribution to the amplitude and timing of sea-level rise. Wave-driven reductions in ice-shelf stability may enhance shelf fragmentation and iceberg calving, reducing ice shelf buttressing and eventually accelerating sea-level rise.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

了解并能够更可靠地预测南极洲的冰块损失是南极科学的一个关键研究重点。巨大的冰架支撑着海洋冰川，减缓了陆地冰流入海洋的速度，反过来又抑制了海平面上升的速度。迄今为止，大多数工作都集中在空气和水温升高对不稳定的影响上，这些影响导致冰架融化，变薄，变弱。然而，最近的研究结果表明，海冰并没有像以前认为的那样保护冰架免受海浪的影响，这就增加了海啸和其他海浪影响冰架稳定性的可能性。该项目将通过开发模型来研究波浪影响如何破坏冰架，从而评估海啸的影响以及由于气候驱动的风暴模式变化和海冰范围减少而导致的波浪活动加剧所造成的冰架破裂的可能性。建模工作将允许在大冰架和小冰架之间进行区域比较，并提供气候变化和风暴模式对冰架、冰盖、冰川以及最终对海平面上升的影响的评估。该项目将培养研究生的数学建模和跨学科的方法，以地球和海洋科学。该项目采用四管齐下的方法来估计由于海啸、超长周期、重力不足和风暴驱动的波浪对接地区冰架振动的影响。首先，研究小组将使用高分辨率的海啸模型来研究南极西部海岸的冰架对源自太平洋不同地区的海浪的反应。其次，比较窄冰架和宽冰架接地带对波浪冲击的响应。第三，它将通过对天气和波浪模型数据的重新分析来评估风暴强迫造成的暴露风险；最后，研究小组将模拟海洋波浪引起的振动在冰中的传播，从冰架前部到接地区。综合而言，该项目旨在确定南极海岸沿线的位置，这些位置受到增强的、以水深为重点的、长期的海浪影响。波浪影响与气候之间的联系源于冰架前海冰范围的潜在变化，以及风暴强度、频率和路径的变化。了解海浪和气候对冰架完整性的影响对于预测它们对海平面上升的幅度和时间的贡献至关重要。波浪导致的冰架稳定性下降可能会加剧冰架破碎和冰山崩解，减少冰架支撑，最终加速海平面上升。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Identifying Ocean Swell Generation Events from Ross Ice Shelf Seismic Data

从罗斯冰架地震数据中识别海洋涌浪生成事件

• DOI: 10.1175/jtech-d-19-0093.1
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology
• 影响因子: 2.2
• 作者: Hell, Momme C.;Cornelle, Bruce D.;Gille, Sarah T.;Miller, Arthur J.;Bromirski, Peter D.
• 通讯作者: Bromirski, Peter D.

Ross Ice Shelf Icequakes Associated With Ocean Gravity Wave Activity

与海洋重力波活动相关的罗斯冰架冰震

• DOI: 10.1029/2019gl084123
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Chen, Z.;Bromirski, P. D.;Gerstoft, P.;Stephen, R. A.;Lee, W. S.;Yun, S.;Olinger, S. D.;Aster, R. C.;Wiens, D. A.;Nyblade, A. A.
• 通讯作者: Nyblade, A. A.

Estimating Southern Ocean Storm Positions With Seismic Observations

通过地震观测估计南大洋风暴位置

• DOI: 10.1029/2019jc015898
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
• 作者: Hell, Momme C.;Gille, Sarah T.;Cornuelle, Bruce D.;Miller, Arthur J.;Bromirski, Peter D.;Crawford, Alex D.
• 通讯作者: Crawford, Alex D.

Tidal and Thermal Stresses Drive Seismicity Along a Major Ross Ice Shelf Rift

• DOI: 10.1029/2019gl082842
• 发表时间: 2019-06
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: S. Olinger;B. Lipovsky;D. Wiens;R. Aster;P. Bromirski;Z. Chen;P. Gerstoft;A. Nyblade;R. Stephen

Unsupervised Deep Clustering of Seismic Data: Monitoring the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica

无监督地震数据深度聚类：监测南极洲罗斯冰架

• DOI: 10.1029/2021jb021716
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
• 作者: Jenkins, II, William F.;Gerstoft, Peter;Bianco, Michael J.;Bromirski, Peter D.
• 通讯作者: Bromirski, Peter D.