Workshop on the future of coastal and estuarine modeling; June 2018; North Carolina State University

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Accurate numerical models are essential for improving our understanding of fundamental physical processes at coastal and estuarine scales, where the connection between human populations and the ocean are most apparent, particularly near rapidly expanding coastal megacities around the world. Models have seen significant advances in the past two decades owing to increases in computational power and improved numerical methods including unstructured grids/model nesting, data assimilation, and model coupling. Furthermore, advances in remote-sensing and in-situ observational technologies have led to substantially larger and more accurate datasets which have significantly improved the ability to assess model performance and quantify uncertainty. However, despite recent advances, a multitude of coastal and estuarine models have been developed in the past two decades, and there has been a lack of a unified approach as seen in regional modeling. This workshop will bring together model users and developers to discuss ways to improve modeling tools for scientific research in physical oceanography at coastal and estuarine scales. The budget will provide travel and participation support to U.S.-based early-career professionals, and there will be an emphasis on attracting underrepresented minorities and women to attend the workshop. Early-career scientists will interact with experienced model developers and users in an environment that focuses on discussion and collaboration, thus helping to promote a stronger community that will continue to improve the accuracy and efficiency of coastal and estuarine models.This workshop will focus on developing an understanding of the advantages and limitations of the current state-of-the-art in numerical modeling of coastal and estuarine processes and to form a consensus on key areas of research and development needed to improve the accuracy and reliability of such models. Outcomes of the workshop will include the development of a unified understanding of the pros and cons of different approaches, such as finite-volume vs. finite-element methods, curvilinear vs. unstructured grids, couplings of ocean, atmosphere, land (hydrology) models, large-eddy simulation vs. RANS turbulence modeling, as well as of different model nesting and adaptive-grid strategies. Discussions will focus on these methods along with strategies for forcing, implementation of boundary conditions, validation, testing, and uncertainty quantification, with the potential for development of a unified framework for model benchmarking. The overarching theme of the workshop will be on the unification of modeling approaches that are needed to understand emerging science topics of interest to both model users and developers. A second focus of the workshop will be to assess how the community can better leverage existing and future computational technologies to improve model performance in better resolving multiscale dynamics in estuaries and the coastal ocean. Not only is there a pressing need for the development of high performance computational strategies for improvement of individual model performance, but also for the implementation of ensemble approaches and the development of methods for data assimilation and uncertainty quantification.