OPUS: Integrating long-term demographic data, field experiments, and mathematical models to understand mangrove forest dynamics

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This research project will integrate the results of a 25-yr field investigation of the population and community ecology of mangrove forests along the Caribbean coast. Mangroves are a predominant vegetation type of tropical and subtropical coasts around the world. They support diverse, highly productive food webs, and provide valuable ecosystem services such as nursery habitat for fishery species, wintering habitat for migratory birds, protection of coastlines from storm surge, and below-ground storage of large stocks of carbon. Despite the considerable value of these ecosystems, mangrove habitats are severely threatened by coastal development, pollution, and conversion to aquaculture. A central goal of this research project is to enhance our ability to predict the responses of mangrove ecosystems to both natural and human-caused disturbances; this knowledge will help guide efforts to restore these highly valuable ecosystems. This goal will be achieved by identifying general mechanisms underlying these ecosystem responses through analyses of data from long-term experimental and observational studies, and from the predictions of a mathematical model of forest dynamics. Information about the rich biology of these systems, and the findings of this and similar studies in the region will be shared with other ecologists, their students, and amateur naturalists in a PI-authored book on the ecology of neotropical mangrove forest communities. This project will also involve undergraduate student assistants, maintaining the investigator's long commitment to training young scientists and guiding them to careers in science.The first phase of this research will complete comprehensive analyses of data from long-term observational and experimental field investigations of the factors that control the structure and dynamics of the study forests. Forest demography and composition have been documented by monitoring the fates of individually marked trees in six forests plots that were established in 1993. These observational data are complemented by two long-term field experiments, initiated in 1995 and 1999, that test the independent and interactive effects of competition and herbivory on light gap regeneration and the spatial distributions of species along the tidal gradient. The results of these analyses will be synthesized with a spatially-explicit model of mangrove forest dynamics, parameterized with tree demographic data collected from the forest plots and field experiments. Model simulations will predict changes in forest composition and age/spatial structure under a range of environmental scenarios. The final phase of the project will be devoted to designing and writing a photo-illustrated book on the ecology of neotropical mangrove forest communities. It will be the first of its kind for the region. While focusing on the rich biology of these systems and key ecological processes that shape their structure and dynamics, the book will highlight the dire circumstances faced by mangrove ecosystems and discuss approaches to their protection and sustainable management.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.