Unemployment Insurance Schemes in Developing Countries

这项拟议的研究项目将利用400,000多名工人的就业历史的大型数据集，研究最有效的失业支助形式。这一就业数据将与支出和失业救济金数据结合起来进行研究。研究人员将对不同类型的失业补偿(失业保险、一次性支付和无保险)进行分类，并使用复杂的方法分析失业人员获得的失业补偿类型如何随着时间的推移影响他们的消费。然后，研究人员将开发一种理论，结合经济学和心理学的洞察力，解释观察到的领取不同类型失业救济金的失业工人消费模式的差异。然后，研究人员将利用这些结果来讨论政策建议。这项研究的结果将为发达国家和发展中国家的失业补偿政策提供宝贵的投入。调查结果还将被用作制定政策的投入，以改善劳动力市场的功能，从而促进美国和世界各地的经济增长。最后，这个研究项目的结果可以被个人用来计划他们在失业期间的消费。关于裁员时失业保险(UI)和一次性付款之间(组合)的最佳选择的辩论集中在前者的抑制和由于后者失业持续时间的不确定性而无法平稳消费之间的权衡。关于这种权衡的实证和理论研究很少，特别是在努力发展失业补偿制度的发展中国家。拟议的研究项目将使用理论和大型数据集来调查失业补偿计划的类型如何影响下岗工人的消费轨迹。该项目遵循了经济学文献中的一条线索，该文献记录了围绕经济冲击的消费概况。采购经理人指数将为40多万人建立一个新的高频纵向正式就业和支出微观数据，并利用这个数据集和丰富的经验背景，在不同工人的失业保险计划中有多种不同来源，以记录新的经验结果。然后，该项目将评估解释这些消费模式的行为结构模型，并评估它们解释经验观察的能力。然后，该项目将使用估计的模型来讨论失业补偿计划的政策影响，特别是对发展中国家。该研究项目的结果将为失业补偿计划和其他劳动力市场政策的制定提供关键投入，改善劳动力市场的功能，并在此过程中促进经济增长。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This proposed research project will study the most efficient form of unemployment support using a large data set on the employment history of over 400,000 workers. This employment data will be combined with expenditure and unemployment compensation data for the study. The researchers will categorize different types of unemployment compensation (unemployment insurance, lump sum payments, and no insurance) and use sophisticated methods to analyze how the type of unemployment compensation unemployed workers receive affects affect their consumption over time. The researchers will then develop a theory that combines the insights of both economics and psychology to explain the observed differences in consumption patterns of unemployed workers receiving different types of unemployment compensation. The researchers will then use the results to discuss policy recommendations. The results of this research will provide valuable inputs into unemployment compensation policies in both developed and developing worlds. The results will also be used as an input to develop policies to improve the functioning of labor markets, hence enhance economic growth both in the US and around the world. Finally, the results of this research project can be used by individuals to plan their consumption during periods of unemployment. The debate about the optimal choice between (combinations of) unemployment insurance (UI) and lump sum payment at the time of layoff focuses on the tradeoff between the disincentive from the former to the inability to smoothen consumption because of the uncertainty of unemployment duration in the case of the latter. There is very little empirical and theoretical investigation of this tradeoff, especially in developing countries that are struggling to develop their unemployment compensation systems. The proposed research project will use theory and large data sets to investigate how the type of unemployment compensation scheme affects the consumption trajectories of laid off workers. The project follows a strand in the economics literature that documents consumption profiles around economic shocks. The PIs will build a new high-frequency longitudinal microdata of formal employment and expenditure for more than 400,000 individuals and exploit this dataset and a rich empirical setting with multiple sources of variation in unemployment insurance schemes across workers to document new empirical findings. The project will then estimate structural models of behaviors that explain these consumption patterns and evaluate their ability to explain the empirical observations. The project will then use the estimated models to discuss policy implications for unemployment compensation schemes, particularly for developing countries. The results of this research project will provide critical inputs into the formulation of unemployment compensations schemes and other labor market policies, improve the functioning of labor markets and in the process, increase economic growth.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.