Water Sustainability at the Food-Energy-Water Nexus under Urbanization and Climate Change

该项目将开发一个综合平台，包括城市化、电力和水需求以及水文/作物模型，以在气候变化的背景下审查城市化对用电量、水需求和作物产量的影响。通过采取相互关联的方法来应对这些挑战，这项工作应该会带来新的、意想不到的解决方案，以在本世纪城市化和气候变化的背景下改善水资源的可持续利用。将设计一套社会经济、城市化和气候变化情景，以探索城市化和气候变化下日益增长的水需求所面临的挑战。该建模平台旨在可转移到世界各地的流域--特别是那些面临快速城市化和潜在气候变化挑战的流域--对粮食-能源-水系统进行系统和综合评估，以制定水可持续适应和缓解战略。将建立一个集成三个关键组成部分的建模平台，以更好地了解城市化和气候变化下的水需求和可持续性。第一个组成部分是城市增长模型，得到卫星遥感和社会经济数据的支持，以预测未来的城市化并预测随之而来的城市热岛强度。第二个组成部分是多部门用水需求模型，以评估城市化和气候变化对公共供应的用水需求、电力使用和由此产生的热电冷却用水需求的影响。第三部分将研究城市化对径流和农田损失的影响，以及由此导致的作物产量和灌溉用水需求的复杂变化。这个集成的建模平台将作为一个原型，将通常是独立的研究领域(如城市化、能源和水)与情景分析结合起来，以探索复杂的问题，并创建一种方法来应对城市化和气候变化下日益增长的水需求挑战。该项目将为利益攸关方提供参与对话的机会。该计划将为土地利用规划者和水资源管理人员开发一个互动培训计划，并与规划机构进行具体接触，以鼓励人们参与培训。通过这一奖项，目的是帮助决策者提高对城市化和气候变化如何影响水需求和可持续性的理解，以便做出更明智的决策和规划，并有潜力帮助全球社区实现其2030年可持续发展目标。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project will develop an integrated platform including urbanization, electricity and water demand, and hydrology/crop models to examine the impact of urbanization on electricity use, water demand, and crop yields in the context of climate change. By taking a nexus approach to addressing these challenges, this work should lead to new and unanticipated solutions to improve sustainable use of water in this century of urbanization and climate change. A set of socioeconomic, urbanization, and climate change scenarios will be designed to explore challenges of growing water demand under urbanization and climate change. The modeling platform is designed to be transferrable to watersheds across the world - especially those facing the challenges of fast urbanization and potential climate change - for a systematic and integrative evaluation of the food-energy-water system to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies for water sustainability.A modeling platform integrating three key components will be built to allow an improved understanding of water demand and sustainability under urbanization and climate change. The first component is an urban growth model, supported by satellite remote sensing and socioeconomic data, to project future urbanization and predict the consequent urban heat island intensity. The second component is a multi-sector water demand model to evaluate the impact of urbanization and climate change on water demand from public supply, and electricity use and resulting thermoelectric cooling water demand. The third component will examine the impact of urbanization on runoff and crop land loss, along with resulting complex changes in crop yields and irrigation water demand. This integrated modeling platform will serve as a prototype in coupling often independent research areas (e.g., urbanization, energy, and water) together with scenario analyses to explore complex problems and create a means to address growing water demand challenges under urbanization and climate change. This project will offer the opportunity for stakeholders to participate in the dialogue. The plan is to develop an interactive training program for land use planners and water managers with specific outreach to planning agencies that will encourage people to engage in the training. Through this, the aim is to help decision-makers improve their understanding of how urbanization and climate change influence water demand and sustainability for more informed decision making and planning, with potential to help global communities achieve their 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.