Collaborative Research: Causes and Consequences of Catastrophic Thermokarst Lake Drainage in an Evolving Arctic System

合作研究：不断变化的北极系统中灾难性热喀斯特湖排水的原因和后果

• 批准号: 1806287
• 负责人: Kenneth Hinkel
• 金额: $ 7.54万
• 依托单位: Michigan Technological University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-08-15 至 2023-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1806287&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Causes; Consequences; Catastrophic

Lakes are abundant features on coastal plains of the Arctic, providing important fish and wildlife habitat and water supply for villages and industry, but also interact with frozen ground (permafrost) and the carbon it stores. Most of these lakes are termed ?thermokarst? because they form in ice-rich permafrost and gradually expand over time. The dynamic nature of thermokarst lakes also makes them prone to catastrophic drainage and abrupt conversion to wetlands, called drained thermokarst lake basins (DTLBs). Together, thermokarst lakes and DTLBs cover up to 80% of arctic lowland regions, making understanding their response to ongoing climate change essential for coastal plain environmental assessment. Catastrophic lake drainage and subsequent ecosystem succession in DTLBs has long intrigued scientists concerned with permafrost, vegetation, and carbon storage. Less attention however has been devoted toward predicting where and when lakes will drain and the magnitude and impacts of downstream flooding. A related process, snow-dam outburst floods from existing DTLBs, has also been overlooked so far in arctic hydrology. Floods generated from snow-dam outburst may help explain abnormally large flood peaks in many arctic rivers and will be increasingly important to consider for future petroleum development and the need to expand roads and pipeline through coastal plain terrain. ?This research on catastrophic lake drainage is relevant to improving our understanding of permafrost and hydrological processes; identifying flood and ground stability hazards; and predicting future vegetation, terrestrial and aquatic habitat, and carbon storage dynamics.?A combination of remote sensing, field observations, and a lake-drainage experiment are targeted at understanding the causes and consequences of DTLB formation and their broader feedbacks with other arctic system components. Data collected in this study will feed into future model development to enhance predictive capacity of hydrologic hazards and landscape responses to climate change in the Arctic. Space-for-time comparison of DTLB chronosequences provides the conceptual framework for linking process scales. The new conceptual model emerging from this project is important fora number of?stakeholders and native villages, where water access, habitat mitigation, and hazard avoidance are a priority. The understanding of hazards and environmental processes gained from this research will advance the interests of industry, land managers, and subsistence users on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska.?This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

湖泊是北极沿海平原上丰富的特征，为鱼类和野生动物提供重要的栖息地，并为村庄和工业提供水源，但也与冻土（永久冻土）及其储存的碳相互作用。这些湖泊大多被称为？热喀斯特因为它们形成于富含冰的永久冻土中，并随着时间的推移逐渐扩大。热岩溶湖泊的动态性质也使它们容易发生灾难性的排水和突然转化为湿地，称为排水热岩溶湖盆（DTLB）。热岩溶湖泊和DTLB共同覆盖了北极低地地区的80%，这使得了解它们对持续气候变化的反应对于沿海平原环境评估至关重要。灾难性的湖泊排水和随后的DTLB生态系统演替长期以来一直吸引着科学家们关注永久冻土，植被和碳储存。然而，很少有人关注预测湖泊何时何地排水以及下游洪水的规模和影响。一个相关的过程，现有DTLB的雪坝溃决洪水，迄今为止在北极水文学中也被忽视。由雪坝溃决产生的洪水可能有助于解释北极许多河流中异常大的洪峰，并且对于未来的石油开发和通过沿海平原地形扩建道路和管道的需要将越来越重要。?对灾难性湖泊排水的研究有助于提高我们对永久冻土和水文过程的理解;识别洪水和地面稳定性危害;预测未来的植被，陆地和水生栖息地以及碳储存动态。结合遥感，实地观察，湖泊排水实验的目标是了解DTLB形成的原因和后果，以及与其他北极系统组件的更广泛的反馈。本研究收集的数据将用于未来的模型开发，以提高北极水文灾害和景观对气候变化反应的预测能力。DTLB时间序列的时空比较提供了连接过程尺度的概念框架。新的概念模型出现，从这个项目是重要的fora数量？利益相关者和土著村庄，在那里，水的获取，栖息地的缓解和避免危险是一个优先事项。从这项研究中获得的对危害和环境过程的理解将促进阿拉斯加北方北极沿海平原的工业、土地管理者和生计使用者的利益。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并被认为是值得通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估的支持。

项目成果

Lake and drained lake basin systems in lowland permafrost regions

• DOI: 10.1038/s43017-021-00238-9
• 发表时间: 2022-01
• 期刊: Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
• 影响因子: 42.1
• 作者: B. Jones;G. Grosse;L. Farquharson;P. Roy-Léveillée;A. Veremeeva;M. Kanevskiy;B. Gaglioti;A. Breen;A. Parsekian;M. Ulrich;K. Hinkel

Spatial snowdrift modelling for an open natural terrain using a physically‐based linear particle distribution equation

• DOI: 10.1002/hyp.14468
• 发表时间: 2022-01
• 期刊: Hydrological Processes
• 影响因子: 3.2
• 作者: N. Ohara;Siwei He;A. Parsekian;B. Jones;R. Rangel;Ian O. Nichols;K. Hinkel

Drained Lake Basin classification based on Landsat-8 imagery, North Slope, Alaska 2014 -2019

基于 Landsat-8 图像的排水湖盆地分类，2014 年 -2019 年阿拉斯加北坡

• DOI: 10.18739/a2k35mf71
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: NSF Arctic Data Center
• 作者: Bergstedt, Helena;Jones, Benjamin;Hinkel, Kenneth;Farquharson, Louise;Gaglioti, Benjamin;Parsekian, Andrew;Kanevskiy, Mikhail;Ohara, Noriaki;Rangel, Rodrigo;Grosse, Guido
• 通讯作者: Grosse, Guido

Saline permafrost degradation below a shallow thermokarst lake in northern Alaska, 2008-2023

2008-2023 年阿拉斯加北部浅热喀斯特湖下方的盐渍化永久冻土退化

• DOI: 10.18739/a20p0ws3k
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: NSF Arctic Data Center
• 作者: Jones, Benjamin;Kanevskiy, Mikhail;Parsekian, Andrew;Bergstedt, Helena;Ward Jones, Melissa;Rangel, Rodrigo;Hinkel, Kenneth;Shur, Yuri
• 通讯作者: Shur, Yuri

Identifying historical and future potential lake drainage events on the western Arctic coastal plain of Alaska

• DOI: 10.1002/ppp.2038
• 发表时间: 2020-01-01
• 期刊: PERMAFROST AND PERIGLACIAL PROCESSES
• 影响因子: 5
• 作者: Jones, Benjamin M.;Arp, Christopher D.;Hinkel, Kenneth M.
• 通讯作者: Hinkel, Kenneth M.