Collaborative Proposal: RAPID: How do extreme flooding events impact migratory species?

极端天气事件可以以戏剧性的方式改变资源，对物种产生积极、消极或中性的影响。在飓风和热带风暴的情况下，暴雨可能引发植物生长的异常脉冲，或者，如果极端，淹没关键资源。这种资源可得性的重大转变几乎肯定会影响当地人口的生存、繁殖和增长；然而，迁徙物种受到影响的程度却不太清楚。由于个体改变了正常行为，淡季资源可能会扰乱迁徙，如果到达冬季或夏季栖息地的时间被推迟或受阻，可能会产生负面后果。另外，迁徙物种可能会通过改变路线来避免资源缺口，甚至利用在强降雨事件后达到峰值的资源，提高它们在中途停留地点的生存能力和在目的地栖息地的适应性。德克萨斯州是北美许多鸟类、蝙蝠和昆虫的重要迁徙通道，它与墨西哥湾沿岸接壤，这意味着在热带风暴季节，它也会受到许多恶劣天气事件的影响。最近与哈维飓风（美国历史上最极端的降雨事件）相关的洪水为研究植物资源如何应对破坏性天气事件提供了一个独特的机会。此外，关于迁徙物种人口反应的假设将在地方和区域尺度上得到严格检验。该项目将研究飓风哈维对典型迁徙物种——北美东部帝王蝶（Danaus plexippus L.）种群的影响，目的是建立一个框架来了解极端洪水事件对迁徙物种的影响。研究结果将为帝王蝶的保护工作、种群模型和气候预测提供信息。本研究将检查哈维对德克萨斯州当地迁徙走廊的帝王蝶动态的影响，并评估其对墨西哥越冬种群和北美中部和东部夏季繁殖种群的潜在携带效应。该项目将通过三项关键活动来实现这一目标。首先，将在2017-2018年迁徙季节的秋季、冬季和春季在整个受影响地区的调查站点收集数据。其次，将利用气候数据和遥感卫星图像来模拟植被生长，探讨哈维和其他近期极端降雨事件的影响。最后，黑脉金斑蝶种群模型将把德克萨斯州的当地条件与墨西哥的越冬种群联系起来，并随后将其与春季和夏季的种群联系起来。本研究通过扩大资源破坏的携带效应可能影响迁徙物种的时空尺度，并提供一个框架，将动物在迁徙期间（年周期中研究最少的阶段）所经历的条件纳入种群模型，以评估控制长期趋势的机制，从而推进宏观系统生态学。

Extreme weather events can alter resources in dramatic ways, which can have positive, negative, or neutral impacts on species. In the case of hurricanes and tropical storms, heavy rains could trigger an unusual pulse of plant growth or, if extreme, drown critical resources. This substantial shift in resource availability almost certainly impacts the survival, reproduction, and growth of local populations; however, the extent to which migratory species are impacted is much less clear. Out-of-season resources may disrupt migration as individuals alter their normal behaviors, with potential negative consequences if arrival to winter or summer habitat is delayed or blocked. Alternatively, migratory species may avoid gaps in resources by shifting their routes, or even capitalize on resources that peak following heavy rainfall events, improving their survival at stopover locations and fitness at destination habitats. Texas is a critical migratory pathway in North America for many species of birds, bats, and insects and its position bordering the gulf coast means that it is also subject to many severe weather events during the tropical storm season. The recent flooding associated with Hurricane Harvey, the most extreme rainfall event in US history, provides a unique opportunity to investigate how plant resources shift in response to disruptive weather events. Further, hypotheses on the demographic responses of migratory species will be rigorously tested at both local and regional scales. This project will study the impact of Hurricane Harvey on a model migratory species, the eastern North American monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus L.) population, with the goal of developing a framework to understand the impact of extreme flooding events on migratory species. The results will inform conservation efforts for the monarch butterfly, population models, and climate forecasting. This research will examine the effects of Harvey on monarch dynamics in the local Texas migratory corridor and evaluate the potential for carry-over effects into the monarch's overwintering population in Mexico and summer breeding population in central and eastern North America. The project will accomplish this through three key activities. First, data will be collected at survey sites throughout the affected area during the fall, winter, and spring of the 2017-2018 migratory season. Second, the impact of Harvey and other recent extreme rainfall events will be explored using climate data and remotely-sensed satellite imagery to model vegetation growth. Finally, monarch population models will link local conditions in Texas to the overwintering population in Mexico, and subsequently to spring and summer generations. This research advances macrosystems ecology by expanding the spatiotemporal scale at which carry-over effects from resource disruptions may impact migratory species, and providing a framework for incorporating conditions experienced by animals during migratory periods (the least-studied stages of the annual cycle) into population models to evaluate mechanisms governing long-term trends.