WORKSHOP: The Nexus of Climate Data, Insurance, and Adaptive Capacity: November 2018 - Asheville, NC

社会依靠保险来帮助从自然灾害中恢复，并帮助指导弹性基础设施和市场的发展。然而，保险业的决策者面临着不断上升的气候风险，必须对其进行适当的衡量和管理。飓风、洪水、强降水、干旱、风暴和其他罕见但有影响力的自然事件发生的频率或严重程度的变化会对保险损失总额产生巨大影响。此外，气候可以通过改变对高温或干旱的暴露，改变空气质量，以及转向更有利于疾病的条件，从而导致人类健康的变化。本次研讨会将探讨保险业如何更好地衡量和管理气候风险。具体而言，本次研讨会促进了三个不同但相关的研究团体之间关于气候风险建模和管理的全国性跨学科科学研究讨论：气候建模和数据社区，统计学家以及保险和再保险行业的研究人员。本次研讨会面向各领域活跃的科研人员，目的是：分享观点、方法和数据库；确定现有研究的差距；形成可操作的研究路径，这些路径只能由新的、合作的、跨学科的团队来解决。讨论的主题包括：决策的时间尺度和可用的数据产品；气候数据产品不确定性的来源；从所有研究团体的角度对“理想”气候数据集和模式预测的陈述；极端事件既是统计上的挑战，也是保险和再保险损失的主要驱动因素；亚网格单体现象如飓风；以及历史天气数据产品、气候模型输出和保险损失数据库的数据融合。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Societies depend on insurance to help recover from natural disasters, and also to help guide the development of resilient infrastructure and markets. However, decision makers in the insurance industry are faced with rising climate risks, which must be properly measured and managed. Changes in the frequency or severity of hurricanes, floods, intense precipitation, droughts, wind storms, and other rare but influential natural events can massively impact total insured losses. Also, climate can lead to changes in human health through shifting exposures to heat or drought, changing air quality, and shifts towards more favorable conditions for disease. This workshop addresses how climate risks can be better measured and managed by the insurance industry. Specifically, this workshop facilitates a national, interdisciplinary scientific research discussion on modeling and managing climate risks among three different but related research communities: the climate modeling and data community, statisticians, and researchers within the insurance and reinsurance industries.This workshop aims at active scientific researchers in each community, with the goals of: sharing perspectives, methods, and databases; defining gaps of existing research; and forming actionable research paths which can only be addressed by teams which are new, collaborative and interdisciplinary. Topics discussed include: time scales for decision making and available data products; sources of uncertainty in climate data products; statements of "ideal" climate datasets and model projections from the perspectives of all research communities; extreme events as both a statistical challenge and a primary driver of losses in insurance and reinsurance; sub-grid cell phenomena such as hurricanes; and data-fusion of historical weather data products, climate model output, and insurance loss databases.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.